waddle_dee

Technical Analysis Bitcoin 22/09/18

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi everyone!

Yesterday Bitcoin finally broke out of it's trading range and we are most likely to get a daily close in the $6700 ranges.
That means we are bullish for now, but where are our targets?

When tracking back the previous upwards retracements after the $6k bottom had been retested, we always retraced to the golden ratio Fibonacci level before continuing the downtrend movement (red boxes).

Except for last time when we fell a bit short:


That's why this is my target where I will be looking to enter short positions:


As long as there are no convincing signs that we are breaking the descending triangle to the upside I will be a bear expecting $6k to finally break at some point.

In addition to that I mentioned in my previous post that if we make a higher low, which we did, I will be expecting Btc to form an equilibrium. That would leave us with a lower high and I am still expecting this to happen.

Now that doesn't mean it's impossible for Btc to break out bullishly and start a bull run since Btc is forming a symmetrical triangle when we connect our most recent lows. Note how said upper trendline coincides with the targeted 0.618 Fibonacci level.


But please remember that the minimum we need to confirm a change in the trend and therefore a possible bull market is a higher high above $7450!

The lower triangle trendline should act as strong support in case we will get rejected at the upper triangle trendline which would further establish the equilibrium and tightening the range in which Btc moves back and forth.

As of now Btc is fighting to break this very hard resistance, I doubt that it can on the first try:


The deeper we close in that red rectangle the bullisher we are in the short to medium term.

If we get rejected and form a higher low this will serve as entry point for long positions for the bulls and people who missed the breakout.

I outlined possible price targets for such entries on the previous chart.

Let's take a quick glance at our indicators aswell:


The RSI has plenty of room to the upside and the MACD looks very promising on the Daily and Weekly if you're a bull.
We didn't get the cleanest of crossovers on the weekly however, which reminds us that this bear period might not be over quite yet.

I will keep you updated, stay safe!


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