BTC Needs to Cool Off! (based on 20W EMA)

Throughout Bitcoin's history, the 20 week exponential moving average (20W EMA) has played a crucial role for both propelling macro bull runs as well as acting for a magnet to pull price back when it tends to get overbought. Currently, price is hovering at ~63% above the current 20W EMA (based on the most recently *closed* weekly candle). Looking back at the past ~7 years of price history, this has only occurred a handful of times - arguably only 3 other times previously. Each of those 3 occurrences took place back during the 2017 bull run. In each instance, price returned to the 20W EMA shortly after (~5 weeks), resetting momentum indicators and acting as a needed cool off period for the uptrend.

I propose that we are in the process of micro "top" on the weekly scale, which will then return to the 20W EMA before the next macro impulse to the upside. Currently, this is at ~$17,100 but the longer it takes for price to retrace, the more that ema level will move upward. I displayed how time might affect that EMA level. The actual price tested is not super important - what matters is the reset that takes place by touching the EMA itself.

Invalidated if "this time is different" shrug_emoji.jpg

We will continue to monitor during the livestreams, regularly 3 times a week.

Comment:

Realized I never came back and updated this idea. Throughout this 2020/2021 Bull run, I have adjusted my thinking about the *need* to come back to the 20W EMA. This was a great battle plan, but as Mike Tyson said - "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face." A couple bad macro trades early on (where I expected a revisit of the 20W EMA) was me getting punched in the face. I have no adapted to what's actually been working this run: The 4Hr 20EMA. This ema has proven to be both the floor and the ceiling during uptrends and downtrends alike. This is now what I watch regularly, instead of the 20W EMA.