EagleView777

BTC/USD - Where to start buying in? Main long-term support line

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In this day chart of BTC you can see the main green line, that has acted as MAIN RESISTANCE LINE from the market top in mid December 2017, until it started acting as MAIN SUPPORT LINE starting from mid April 2018. From time to time it gets re-confirmed as support line, such as recently in June 2018. So, this green line is clearly a very important line to watch.

I'm expecting that the market will continue to drift lower, but that BTC price will stay above this green line. So, this may give us an indication about price/time levels in the months ahead.

I think we may find our lowest price point somewhere in August or September 2018 (to be confirmed as bottom with hindsight much later on), and that from there we will move sideways for a rather long period of time, perhaps even for several months.

Now, there are roughly 2 possibilities about how the market will bottom. There may be either a sharp sell-off and then a V-shaped recovery; or a slow grinding down, and a recovery in the form of a cup and handle formation. I think we will mainly see a slow grinding down. Nevertheless, at some point there may also still be a relatively minor sudden and sharp sell-off.

How to deal with this situation if you are a long-term bull, like me? How to buy BTC , in order to then hold it long term as an investment? I am going to buy BTC below USD 5,000 in increments whenever the prices goes back to the green line or slightly above, so that I'm about half invested - so as to be invested and not to miss the boat when suddenly the market would take off. And I'm also going to keep about 50% of my powder dry, so as to buy at very reduced price levels in case of a sharp sell-off.

Under no condition will I sell what I have bought. In the time ahead there may be tremendous pressure on the bulls to sell their holdings (thinking that they can buy back at lower prices), and this pressure may be very, very hard to resist, maybe almost impossible to resist. Therefore, I continue to make up my mind that I'm not going to sell, no matter what. So, I will hold whatever I have bought, and at the same time I will keep some powder dry in order to buy at much lower levels in case of a sharp sell-off.

Best of luck with your trading.


Comment: Another BEARISH CROSSOVER in the daily chart:
In this daily chart you can also see the 144-daily EMA in red colour; and the 233-daily EMA in orange colour - I use Fibonacci numbers for my exponential moving averages (EMA).
Now, as you can see we are having a bearish crossover from the shorter term (144-daily EMA) below the longer term (233-EMA) moving averages. This particular bearish crossover on the daily chart is the first since november 2015. And this is one of the reasons why I'm expecting the BTC price to still go substantially lower, and also remain low for an extended period of time, in the months ahead.
It is all Fibonacci.

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