I have struggled with further scenarios, after the bounce from my mentioned level at $7,930, because there are two, almost equal, resistance levels which can play an important role in the next movements.
To be said, I'm still with mid-term bearish bias because of the Weekly bearish candlestick pattern Evening Star. The price can make another $150-$300 leg upwards but still, it doesn't hurt my bias. My bias starts to change after the price has climbed above the $8,700 and the Weekly candle gets a close around that level - the green "box". So, because of my mid-term bearish bias a search selling areas/opportunities.
At the moment, the price moves between $8,200 - $8,300 and this area is also our first resistance area - the lower gray "box".
There are:
- Fibonacci retracement levels 50% & 62% pulled from different tops
- Fibonacci extensions 127%
- The minor trendline (light blue) which is the upper trendline from the bearish chart pattern called Rising Wedge
- The area itself is a significant level. This price level has worked as resistance on mid of the May, beginning of the July it worked as a support and now it should act as a resistance level.
Now, the mentioned struggle - we have some bearish price action on the current levels (bearish candlestick patterns on the 4H and on the 1H), the level is pretty strong to short BTC from here, from the first gray area but Still, there is something which doesn't allow to do it, I don't know why it doesn't feel right to short it here but probably it is the buyers consistency from $7,500, steady grind upwards is usually pretty bullish for BTC price! So, that's why I'll wait for a further confirmation, if the price still starts to fall lower from the current level then another confirmation comes after the breakout from the bearish chart pattern Rising Wedge - a candle close below the lower light blue trendline and a candle close below the red price level ($8,110)will be a bearish confirmation and you should get at least 1H candle close below that level.
The second selling area stays around $8,500, this area was also the target 2. on my previous post. There are some price action criteria and they should act as resistance levels:
- Fibonacci golden ratio 62% and minor the Fibonacci level 78%
- Fibonacci Extensions 162%
- The round number $8,500 should act as a resistance.
- Depends on the price action but the minor trendline (Rising Wedge upper trendline) may act also as a resistance. It depends when it reaches into the higher gray area.
This level is just a little bit more favorable because of the Fibonacci level and visually it looks also better but if it starts to go right away then this area becomes also a bit riskier because then the price is cracked this minor light blue trendline and it can find a momentum to push it through the higher gray box. So, to be more secure then the bearish candlestick pattern is needed on the upper gray area and only valid patterns are bearish Engulfing, Evening Star, bearish Railway Tracks (if you don't know them, google helps you out).
SUMMARY: Pretty simple guidelines - the first area (lower gray zone) gives us a confirmed movement after the breakout from the chart pattern called Rising Wedge and the second area (higher gray zone) can give us a reversal trade opportunity after the bearish candlestick formations! Sell orders, because my bias is bearish because of the Weekly timeframe price action and this can "easily" change and it changes after the BTC price has climbed above the $8,700!
Feel free to support my effort by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido - Analysts for Swipex
To be said, I'm still with mid-term bearish bias because of the Weekly bearish candlestick pattern Evening Star. The price can make another $150-$300 leg upwards but still, it doesn't hurt my bias. My bias starts to change after the price has climbed above the $8,700 and the Weekly candle gets a close around that level - the green "box". So, because of my mid-term bearish bias a search selling areas/opportunities.
At the moment, the price moves between $8,200 - $8,300 and this area is also our first resistance area - the lower gray "box".
There are:
- Fibonacci retracement levels 50% & 62% pulled from different tops
- Fibonacci extensions 127%
- The minor trendline (light blue) which is the upper trendline from the bearish chart pattern called Rising Wedge
- The area itself is a significant level. This price level has worked as resistance on mid of the May, beginning of the July it worked as a support and now it should act as a resistance level.
Now, the mentioned struggle - we have some bearish price action on the current levels (bearish candlestick patterns on the 4H and on the 1H), the level is pretty strong to short BTC from here, from the first gray area but Still, there is something which doesn't allow to do it, I don't know why it doesn't feel right to short it here but probably it is the buyers consistency from $7,500, steady grind upwards is usually pretty bullish for BTC price! So, that's why I'll wait for a further confirmation, if the price still starts to fall lower from the current level then another confirmation comes after the breakout from the bearish chart pattern Rising Wedge - a candle close below the lower light blue trendline and a candle close below the red price level ($8,110)will be a bearish confirmation and you should get at least 1H candle close below that level.
The second selling area stays around $8,500, this area was also the target 2. on my previous post. There are some price action criteria and they should act as resistance levels:
- Fibonacci golden ratio 62% and minor the Fibonacci level 78%
- Fibonacci Extensions 162%
- The round number $8,500 should act as a resistance.
- Depends on the price action but the minor trendline (Rising Wedge upper trendline) may act also as a resistance. It depends when it reaches into the higher gray area.
This level is just a little bit more favorable because of the Fibonacci level and visually it looks also better but if it starts to go right away then this area becomes also a bit riskier because then the price is cracked this minor light blue trendline and it can find a momentum to push it through the higher gray box. So, to be more secure then the bearish candlestick pattern is needed on the upper gray area and only valid patterns are bearish Engulfing, Evening Star, bearish Railway Tracks (if you don't know them, google helps you out).
SUMMARY: Pretty simple guidelines - the first area (lower gray zone) gives us a confirmed movement after the breakout from the chart pattern called Rising Wedge and the second area (higher gray zone) can give us a reversal trade opportunity after the bearish candlestick formations! Sell orders, because my bias is bearish because of the Weekly timeframe price action and this can "easily" change and it changes after the BTC price has climbed above the $8,700!
Feel free to support my effort by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido - Analysts for Swipex