Green vertical lines indicate approximate halving dates. Red stars indicate market peaks. Red arrows mark approximate location that price broke down below 50 weekly moving average. Green arrows mark approximate location price breaks above 50 weekly moving average. During the last bear cycle, 14 months elapsed between the initial breakdown below the 50 wma, and the start of the bull cycle, where price broke above the 50 wma. Assuming another 14 month ‘stale’ period occurs in the current bear cycle, then we are about half way through. It has been about 7 months since price broke down below the 50 wma. This would place the start of the next bull cycle roughly June/July 2019. Accumulation should now begin, and should continue for the next 6-12 months. Additional breaks of 3500 support are possible. Anything below 3,000 will be quite overextended to the downside in relation to the production cost of bitcoin. Next cycle should take bitcoin to 80,000+. Keep in mind these are my personal opinions, and should not be taken as investment advice.
Comment:
We’re almost there. Permanent bottom should be in anytime now. Last 12 months have been tough... but the next 12 will be better. Will probably be a boring 8-12 month sideways accumulation phase... with the next bull phase starting sometime in the latter half of the period. If you’re still in the market, then congratulations is an order. You survived the great 2018 crypto slaughter. Further downside over the next 180 days is possible, but should be limited to 25% or less from from an entry price of $3200. On another note: With the U.S. Treasury yield curve flattening, all indications are pointing towards the possibility of a recession beginning in 2019-2020. If this were to occur, I personally believe it would only enhance bitcoin’s attractiveness as a hedge against most other asset classes. With the entire world operating solely on a lifeline compiled of a variety of institutionalized fiat currencies each with an average lifespan of just 27 years, it’s only a matter of time before many people will begin losing faith in the classic system and look for an alternative method to store/transfer their wealth. Bitcoin was a byproduct of the 2008 housing crash/recession, and I see no reason why bitcoin shouldn’t flourish if another recession comes our way. With that said, bitcoin has now lost 84% of its value in the last 12 months, and I believe now is an excellent time to dip your toes in the water and begin gradually accumulating.
Comment:
We are 5 months into the accumulation phase. This recent bullish correction has actually managed to break the 50 WMA... an indication of the strength behind this rally. Is this the start of the new bull wave up to 80k? I personally have my doubts. While its true that the breach of the 50 WMA is a rather bullish sign, there remains monster resistance from the 6k to the 6.5k range. The chances of this resistance being broken on the first attempt seem slim at best from a technical perspective. But who knows. Crazier things have happened to bitcoin in the past. I am personally opening a small short position at these levels, as i see the probability of a correction back to 4k within the next 4-8 weeks being pretty high. The majority of my holdings, however, will remain long. I am also of the strong opinion that the next correction will mark the last time you will be able to purchase a bitcoin below 4.5k. This will be a great opportunity for any last minute longs to open positions before we start a multiyear trend up. With that being said, i am a human being, just like the rest of you, and i could be completely wrong. Trade at your own risk, and good luck.
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Off to the races.
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This most recent peak at 65k honestly has me a bit confused. Which is probably a good thing. My impressions at first glance are that this is the end of this bull cycle... and that we are now headed for a 2 year 60-80% correction... down into the 10-20k range. Closer inspection, however, yields a conflicting idea. This peak, structurally, has not been very ‘peaky’; on the contrary... it has been a very gradual ‘rounded’ peak... with no real capitulation event. It also seems a bit early. The 50 weekly MA is around 28k... and price has yet to break this level... so technically the trend is still bullish. I’m not convinced either way however... so for now it’s a matter of watching and waiting for further clues. If the bull scenario plays out... 100k is definitely in the cards by early 2022. Otherwise... gradual bleeding will continue... and a break down below the 50WMA at 28k will confirm end of current bull cycle. If this is indeed the end of this cycle... then I will be looking for heavy re-entry between 10-20k sometime in late 2022 or 2023. Not trading advice... and good luck.
Comment:
Off to the races once again. Would not be surprised to see 100k. Would be surprised if this cycle peaks above 120k or below 80k.