List multiple possibilities. Of which the most likely marked in blue. I also have another "extremely" simplistic chart about the BTC market in 2016, which has a slightly differend opinion. (related idea)
Short was opened around 433.5 and a stop at around 439 on my broker. (which is typically a couple of cents off from bitsamp). Risk management is good because the target is 20 to 40 dollars down.