On December 27, 2018 I published a post in the Telegram, in which I said that, unfortunately, my charts show nothing, except for the movement shown above. It is not strange, but this movement successfully worked and we went downward by a local downtrend, where we pushed off and went upward by a local uptrend.
*The original post in the Telegram about the upcoming movement*
According to the result of the movement, which was predicted by me, we see that two lines of resistance formed, the first at $ 3980, and the second at $ 4090. In case we break through the first line of resistance, most likely we will continue to move to $ 5000. However, do not forget about the global downtrend, which can suppress the relatively local uptrend. The is about $ 3,600, and the next is about $ 3,400.
My opinion is that January will be the month of a . And this does not mean that we will reach the moon.
Now we are seeing the fall of Bitcoin, perhaps this is New Year's manipulation, but do not forget that after falling to $ 3600 we will go to $ 3400. So far, I do not advise you to open positions, but be careful if you open.
On the eve of the New Year, it was possible to observe the manipulations that led to a fall to $ 3636, my opinion has not changed, I think that we should enter an upward trend. It is important to remember that even on the daily chart we can grow without disturbing the overall picture. But if we start to fall, we will probably stop at $ 3,300 and move on to an uptrend because a bullish flag will be created.
As you can see, my initial idea was to open long positions due to the upward trend, which actually happened, the Bitcoin course began to rise gradually. Literally $ 200 dollars and we can see the closure of the "Head and Shoulders" figure, what does this mean? And everything is simple, this figure means a change in the general trend, and it can end a bearish trend. But is everything so simple? A limited number of bitcoins, and something tells me, a lot of bitcoins have bad people who use bitcoin because of the possibility of manipulation with impunity and getting quick and easy money. So be extremely careful.
Essentially I think your idea in general could be correct, but the wave count is too far off imo to be a valid indicator of when to time the entry. More or less I believe that we are just seeing the completion of Wave 2 in a possible 3-3-3-3-3 pattern at best, or are just seeing a larger ABC wave which your wave 1 line is a part of.
Regardless, wave 4 only goes into wave 1's territory during a 3-3-3-3-3 diagonal triangle formation, so even if I was mistaken about wave 2 retracing 1, if these waves aren't all made of ABC subwaves then the count is off.