Which is creating a lot of uncertainty to its future. What I'd like to remind readers is each time a wave of large unlockings hit, not only does bitcoin's spot price rise, but the share price of the Trust gains in value with respect to its underlying holdings ( NAV ). If we ignore the fact it's at a discount then the likelihood of this measure to rise based on history is batting one-thousand - perfect.
If we take into consideration the massive wave of unlockings coming ahead, there's reason to believe the premium will return (unless it converts to an before).
For more information on what this Grayscale Effect is and why it happens, here's a quick read to explain: https://jarvislabs.substack.com/p/the-gr...
It doesn't look like this fits anymore - the reason why the unlockings have caused btc spot to rise (increasing share premium) has been because there's always been a premium to play the sell & buy-back spot game with. currently that isn't the case for the first time on this chart.
no premium = no buying back spot bitcoin to capture it
so this has to flip into a premium another way for the effect to continue - through other parties buying up BTC outside of this game, Grayscale buying back enough GBTC shares (if possible), enough participants holding their shares long enough waiting for premium to return etc
I guess it depends, if enough participants get shook & leave Grayscale by selling the unlock at a discount & buying back their spot btc to take elsewhere it could have the same effect. would a lot of them buy spot for this though? considering other options are popping up.
still could be a mutual desire in participants for the game to continue so some bid comes in to save the day driving up premium before unlock
But currently 2020 inflow flattens until 21st October, which puts the next big unlock starting at 19th April (chart has it at 21st)
The 9th & 10th week after this starts have gigantic surges in inflow compared to the rest, so i'll be on the lookout for big things those weeks especially if premium is up and there's still an appetite for these players to hold BTC in grayscale & continue the game.