Big moves since my last update on 4/4/19. At that time, we were breaking out of the 16 month bear market. Price action consolidated and bounced around in the 5000s for a month, and then it finally happened, the breakout at 5800 to 6000, which followed after a Golden Cross of the 50-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA. I know these crosses are divisive among traders, but we cannot discount the back tested significance of these events. I do not put 100% faith in any one indicator or event, as I prefer to rely on multiple independent sources of information to form my analysis, but short/long term MA crosses do prove to be consistent in foretelling future price action (golden crosses usually preceding bullish price action, and death crosses preceding bearish price action).
As of this update, we’re testing the pivot top near 7500. It would be safe to assume some mean reversion in the very near future given the incredible surge in May. I’ve pointed out all relevant pivot tops that might serve as levels of resistance, and potential points for a pullback. Given that all these levels are each a single peak (not a double or triple top, etc.), they may prove insignificant, and price action might blow through those levels without pause. With that being said, I’m not betting heavily on any of these pivots as huge levels of resistance, but they are worth watching as we move forward. Lastly, be mindful of the potential for surges/resistance around buy/sell walls at level of psychological significance (7000, 8000, 9000, etc.)
As of this update, we’re testing the pivot top near 7500. It would be safe to assume some mean reversion in the very near future given the incredible surge in May. I’ve pointed out all relevant pivot tops that might serve as levels of resistance, and potential points for a pullback. Given that all these levels are each a single peak (not a double or triple top, etc.), they may prove insignificant, and price action might blow through those levels without pause. With that being said, I’m not betting heavily on any of these pivots as huge levels of resistance, but they are worth watching as we move forward. Lastly, be mindful of the potential for surges/resistance around buy/sell walls at level of psychological significance (7000, 8000, 9000, etc.)