crimsonronin
Short

BTC; The bull forest from the bear trees!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I have posted a couple of times about BTC heading downward. Sure my H&S was incorrect, and my fractal comparison with ethereum's last correction was a tad early. But yet here we are; bear country!

I've been following a massive bear flag for the past week, but didn't want to jump the gun, as I had in my previous short BTC calls.



Also a few days back there was a chance that it could have also been a symmetrical triangle, which coming out of a bull run tends to infer continuation to the upside.



So I kept both options on the table until BTC broke the lower flag trend line and headed south for the winter (only if you are in the northern hemisphere, which I am not).



Once our target of around $10k USD hit, we saw a nice bounce, and why shouldn't we; it was only a month before that BTC hit 20k..... and now you can have that same BTC for 50% off! Bargain!!

But, as time progressed, a rising wedge started to appear:



And as cryptos so often do, they break out of the D instead of completing the pattern (so impatient!!!):



I believe we are heading lower, to approximately $8.4k - $9.1k until we see a solid bounce.

However, I don't believe we can call the bottom at that level. I think we are in a bigger falling wedge which is super bullish on the macro level, but is short term bearish considering the delta between the high and low within the wedge .

So my advice for now; hold tight and ensure you have plenty of cash on hand to buy the lows ($6k - $7.5k, and if you are feeling frisky, swing from ~$9k - $12k). We could be seeing new ATH's in a few short months.
Comment: A quick update;

* We have hit our first inverted HVF target at about 10.8k
* We had a bounce from 10.8k, as expected, to try and test the bottom of the wedge.
* This was rejected at about 11.4k which also happens to be where the wedge broke.
* We have been as low as 10.6k, however I expected the 2nd leg down to be a bit more ferocious than it has been.
* We are making mini bear flags, so I'm hoping to see another move downwards soon.

Comment: Things were on track until..........



That's a lot of volume very suddenly. Lets see where this takes us.
Comment: It seems we are working on a larger rising wedge now:
Comment:
Comment: The larger rising wedge seems to be nearing completion



The 4HR TF looks terrible for BTC. The Stoch RSI is overbought, and it has just completed a spinning top, TD 9 candle!!!

If it falls out of the wedge, it could be a quick drop to the bottom of the larger falling wedge: $8.6k - $8.8k
Comment: The wedge broke convincingly to the down side we suspected it would:



The stoch rsi has so much room to run, as well as the TD, I'm pretty confident we will see the upper end of $8k.
Comment: The downward trend continues:
Comment:
Comment: We have had an interesting few days of price action.

* Our wedge broke nicely (see last comment)
* When then went back up to test the bottom of the wedge for resistance and were rejected
* Price went lower but began forming another rising wedge / bear flag

I went back over the last few days and found some fractals:


I also cross referenced against the moving averages, and things aren't looking too pretty for the bulls.



When you take a daily view, it becomes much clearer:

* The 20 and 50 MA's crossed a week back and we saw a big sell off
* Typically when this happens the target becomes the 200 MA which is around 7.5k - 8k

Comment: The rising wedge set up looks almost identical to the previous one:



Look for it to go below the 20EMA and 50MA, then a nice short is in play!
Comment: We broke down nicely out of the wedge, but started to run up again. So we had to switch from a wedge to a bear flag. The outcome was the same in the end.

And this is what capitulated selling looks like:



This is looking very scary for anyone who is currently holding large amounts of BTC.

As I mentioned in my first post, hold tight, and get your cash ready, because there will be a great buying opportunity, but we just have to be patient!
Much respect man. I like that you keep updating the chart and reply back to comments.
Good work on the chart.
+1 Reply
@DCFreak, thank you! I very much enjoy your TA also. Thank you again!
+1 Reply
thanks for the update.
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This is the problem of BTC; too many exchanges have too many different results.

Check out the bitstamp chart,the wedge is already broken there.
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A quick update;

* We have hit our first inverted HVF target at about 10.8k
* We had a bounce from 10.8k, as expected, to try and test the bottom of the wedge.
* This was rejected at about 11.4k which also happens to be where the wedge broke.
* We have been as low as 10.6k, however I expected the 2nd leg down to be a bit more ferocious than it has been.
* We are making mini bear flags, so I'm hoping to see another move downwards soon.

Reply
crimsonronin crimsonronin
Derp, added as a comment and not an update... damn you TV for putting the buttons so close together!
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Great charting! Keep us updated :)
+1 Reply
@malk, Thanks. Likewise! I'm a HVF noob, so I enjoy reading your stuff.
+1 Reply
lol
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