Many of you say 'to the moon', some say 'it will fall to 1k'. Here's my opinion about BTC and all the crypto.
There are many ways to draw a channel on BTCUSD log chart. I drew two channels just to show the difference: blue and black. The blue one has a huge potential to go very high, the black on the other hand - to go very low.
The moment Bitcoin was invented nobody knew nothing about it. Within couple of years it started to trade on markets. There were no Binance or OKEX back then. People started to trade slowly, why not. New people were slowly attracted with words 'its a decentralized, none institution can control it!' It was working until 2017, people were believing in blockchain technology, but then 2017 came. In 2017 on Etherium basis were created more than thousand altcoins, the recipe was simple: make a website, write a bullshit roadmap, attract some crypto stand-uppers, fire a blockchain and wait when your coin makes x10000.
The casino finished its beta-testing period and went live. Many people were hearing the news about bitcoin hits 2k, 4k, 8k, investing as crazy with fear not to lose their train to the moon. It worked, bitcoin had a correction during 2018-2020 years. During those years many were investigating the history of BTC charts, finding similarities.
And what did they find? They found that bitcoin grows during one year from January to December with some 'corrections' in May-June and August-September. Then it falls down during another 2-3 years or so, but ok, they don't care for how long it is going to fall, all they care is when it starts to grow in price and for how many months and how many 'X' it is going to make, right? Right!
The year 2021 came, Bitcoin is 20k again! News are working just as expected! No? Why nobody is saying that Bitcoin is future money anymore? At least not as much as before? Because nobody cares! Look! Bitcoin is already 25k! 30k, bro! It is growing even faster as expected!
Look, Ilon Musk also invested! You hear that? Ilon Musk is very popular now! Tesla stock went up really badly last year! Oh no! BTC is 40k!
And so on... But... Here is exactly the place where you may be fooled again and very badly, you know why?
Because this time even more people jumped in that train with their money waiting Bitcoin makes x20 from it's last high which was 20k.
Ok some of you are not that greedy? x10 is enough? so let's exit at around 200k$ for Bitcoin? Huh?
I might disappoint you, but there are many logical reasons for that, at least what I always keep in mind.
1. Each year more and more people get involved with bitcoin and they are already used to jump in the rally much sooner than in 2014 or 2017, so there is no need to share money with them.
2. There is no real difference between bitcoin and 2000+ other shitcoins - all of them work (almost) same way, and of course all of them are completely useless in real life.
3. The market cap hits almost 2.5 trillion, but you never know how much real money is in crypto. 100 billion or even less? Imagine that you want to sell all possible bitcoins - the moment you start selling, the price starts falling, right? That said the market cap is an imaginary number of dollars which you theoretically could gain if you sell all possible crypto by its current market price. Which is impossible! Because the moment you sell 10% of crypto, the price will drop 50% at least. You sell more 10%, the price will drop 50% more! and so on.
4. All this crypto with years became a huge online casino, where you win if you smart enough, but you lose if you're greedy and act like the majority. The community is already divided by HODLers and traders. If you're a trader - welcome to our casino! Want a drink?
In conclusion I'd say there's no real reason for BTC to be very expensive, the reason the price of BTC is that high is just to attract more people to play, and also to have more room to fool them.
That casino game started functioning when BTC price was 1$ and believe it or no, many people became millionaires back then.
In reality it doesn't really matter how much will BTC cost, it will continue to be very speculative till the last day of its existance, most probably finding its only use in trading.
---
As to current price fall all I can say that it is totally different from March 2020 and is more likely a long-term correction. Here's why:
1. BTC fell down to 0.618 fib on monthly chart, which made a more than 50% price drop. That happenned only when there was a huge correction.
2. After a 0.618 fall it retraced to 0.382 fib, which is barely nothing. Now it is continuing falling down. And no, it didn't finish yet, Crypto is always falling down with a huge volatility making a dip, touching the bottom during couple of minutes, after which it provides a retracement. Now we've been 'touching' bottom during couple of days.
3. BTC always tested its support levels. On the weekly it has untested levels of support of 25k, 20k, 13k. On the monthly it has 13k and 1350$ as I marked on the chart.
Anyway, that's all I have for you for today.
There are many ways to draw a channel on BTCUSD log chart. I drew two channels just to show the difference: blue and black. The blue one has a huge potential to go very high, the black on the other hand - to go very low.
The moment Bitcoin was invented nobody knew nothing about it. Within couple of years it started to trade on markets. There were no Binance or OKEX back then. People started to trade slowly, why not. New people were slowly attracted with words 'its a decentralized, none institution can control it!' It was working until 2017, people were believing in blockchain technology, but then 2017 came. In 2017 on Etherium basis were created more than thousand altcoins, the recipe was simple: make a website, write a bullshit roadmap, attract some crypto stand-uppers, fire a blockchain and wait when your coin makes x10000.
The casino finished its beta-testing period and went live. Many people were hearing the news about bitcoin hits 2k, 4k, 8k, investing as crazy with fear not to lose their train to the moon. It worked, bitcoin had a correction during 2018-2020 years. During those years many were investigating the history of BTC charts, finding similarities.
And what did they find? They found that bitcoin grows during one year from January to December with some 'corrections' in May-June and August-September. Then it falls down during another 2-3 years or so, but ok, they don't care for how long it is going to fall, all they care is when it starts to grow in price and for how many months and how many 'X' it is going to make, right? Right!
The year 2021 came, Bitcoin is 20k again! News are working just as expected! No? Why nobody is saying that Bitcoin is future money anymore? At least not as much as before? Because nobody cares! Look! Bitcoin is already 25k! 30k, bro! It is growing even faster as expected!
Look, Ilon Musk also invested! You hear that? Ilon Musk is very popular now! Tesla stock went up really badly last year! Oh no! BTC is 40k!
And so on... But... Here is exactly the place where you may be fooled again and very badly, you know why?
Because this time even more people jumped in that train with their money waiting Bitcoin makes x20 from it's last high which was 20k.
Ok some of you are not that greedy? x10 is enough? so let's exit at around 200k$ for Bitcoin? Huh?
I might disappoint you, but there are many logical reasons for that, at least what I always keep in mind.
1. Each year more and more people get involved with bitcoin and they are already used to jump in the rally much sooner than in 2014 or 2017, so there is no need to share money with them.
2. There is no real difference between bitcoin and 2000+ other shitcoins - all of them work (almost) same way, and of course all of them are completely useless in real life.
3. The market cap hits almost 2.5 trillion, but you never know how much real money is in crypto. 100 billion or even less? Imagine that you want to sell all possible bitcoins - the moment you start selling, the price starts falling, right? That said the market cap is an imaginary number of dollars which you theoretically could gain if you sell all possible crypto by its current market price. Which is impossible! Because the moment you sell 10% of crypto, the price will drop 50% at least. You sell more 10%, the price will drop 50% more! and so on.
4. All this crypto with years became a huge online casino, where you win if you smart enough, but you lose if you're greedy and act like the majority. The community is already divided by HODLers and traders. If you're a trader - welcome to our casino! Want a drink?
In conclusion I'd say there's no real reason for BTC to be very expensive, the reason the price of BTC is that high is just to attract more people to play, and also to have more room to fool them.
That casino game started functioning when BTC price was 1$ and believe it or no, many people became millionaires back then.
In reality it doesn't really matter how much will BTC cost, it will continue to be very speculative till the last day of its existance, most probably finding its only use in trading.
---
As to current price fall all I can say that it is totally different from March 2020 and is more likely a long-term correction. Here's why:
1. BTC fell down to 0.618 fib on monthly chart, which made a more than 50% price drop. That happenned only when there was a huge correction.
2. After a 0.618 fall it retraced to 0.382 fib, which is barely nothing. Now it is continuing falling down. And no, it didn't finish yet, Crypto is always falling down with a huge volatility making a dip, touching the bottom during couple of minutes, after which it provides a retracement. Now we've been 'touching' bottom during couple of days.
3. BTC always tested its support levels. On the weekly it has untested levels of support of 25k, 20k, 13k. On the monthly it has 13k and 1350$ as I marked on the chart.
Anyway, that's all I have for you for today.