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Bitcoin, Time for More Bullish Flat Action

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
snapshot

In the attached chart you can see that we just formed a perfect bat on weekly futures on the lower time-frame. The Elliott Wave count also supports this being the end of the pattern by way of the terminal impulse in the Wave v inside of what I believe to be Wave (c). If this is correct it means that this big daily correction on bitcoin is not over, and that we are actually in the middle of a Flat, which means we should get one more impulsive wave to the upside before we get another big dump. Time-wise this all makes a lot of sense because the move from 219 to 244 is too small compared to the move from 294 to 219, which it would supposedly be correcting. Also the dump starting from 245 high retraced very slowly and still has not broken the 219 low. Also, the end of Wave c of (2) on the daily chart lines up perfectly with Quarterly Settlement on OKC futures . My guess is that we should finally get the really big dump right after quarterly futures settle.

Other signs that this is bullish are the daily bat that appear on BFX and Houbi, The 76.4% retracement of 295 high, The daily momentum starting to shift up, Daily bearish momentum getting weaker. and Lower time-frame bullish divergences.

An important thing to note: This new wave up should be a Wave c, which tend to have breadth. Meaning, that we should see a collective of altcoins pumping with bitcoin . Since most of the alts are pinned against bitcoin , chances are that these are going provide much larger percent gains than bitcoin . I am personally going to keep my eye on XRP, Dash, STR             , and LTC             , however, I'm sure there may be others that will pump that I'm not watching.

http://scamco.in/2015/06/07/bitcoin-time-for-more-big-flat-action/
https://www.whaleclub.co/signals/s/cLQ4id
rivet.popper
2 years ago
Interesting. LTC has been pumping for the last 2 weeks. Then again there are technical reasons for this like the blockhalving in less than 80 days.
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
I think that would fall under fundamental reason :)

Looking at LTCBTC though, you can see that it is pretty bullish. That in itself is a good indicator that LTC is far more bullish than BTC. Taking that further, if you look at say, DASHLTC, Dash is far more bullish than LTC, and LTC is more bullish than BTC, meaning DASH is probably the most bullish of the three, and should make the largest percent gains.

I can't really give you a reason why other than what I can show you on a chart, fundamentally, there are too many factors for me to analyze. I will probably publish something on LTC soon, but I do expect that when it starts going back up it will make much bigger gains than BTC, along with many other alts making massive gains as well.
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rivet.popper Intuit
2 years ago
Thanks for your reply. So you think that LTC pump will also trace BTC back down after the pump or are there reasons for LTC to rest at a higher value, considering: the block halving, maybe some increased interested due to BTC, and just the fact that it's cheaper to buy?
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rivet.popper rivet.popper
2 years ago
*...some increased interest due to BTC...
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
snapshot


Just at first glance you can see that the bears are running out of momentum on LTCBTC and LTCUSD, and the bulls are starting to take over with the bullish cross. And also the huge uptrend that basically just left bitcoin in the dust. I think now is the time for LTC and BTC to start narrowing the price gap. Can't tell you why specifically, all I can do is read the charts :)
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Intuit PRO Intuit
2 years ago
(alot of data is missing from TV charts right now for some reason, hence why it only shows some of the data)
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rivet.popper Intuit
2 years ago
Many thanks Scamcoins. I got a good price on LTC (around 1.40 USD) and backed up the truck not too long ago. My wonder now is if the bullish momentum will go long-term and maybe they'll be worth holding for a few years.

Ya never know, it could take BTC's place in the not to distant future as the most traded and used coin. I'd certainly be super-psyched if they reached even BTC's price now.
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rivet.popper rivet.popper
2 years ago
What I mean to say is, maybe LTC price will de-link from BTC at some point and go forward on it's own.
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
It already kind of has de-linked at some points. My belief is that BTC, LTC and many other alts (some still yet to be created) will act like foreign currency markets do today. In-fact, they kind of already do. The scale of course is much smaller but you will still see breadth in the crypto markets and can pair any two coins together, with sufficient liquidity, you can see how they compare to each other on an open market in price at that particular time, similar to how forex markets operate today. It's likely they will not only create their own new markets, but they will eventually merge with larger global currency markets once certain currency pairs have sufficient liquidity.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper Intuit
2 years ago
Hm. Sounds long-term bullish to me, at least for the 2nd highest traded coin. Thanks for your time and analyses!
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
For what its worth, I think, fundamentally, bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general is extremely bullish. A lot of smart money is pouring into crypto because there is endless potential for use. The longer its around the more people will trust it. I don't think at any point bitcoin ever stopped being long-term fundamentally bullish. Something major would have to happen like finding a way to counterfeit digital currency. The price isn't going down necessarily for fundamental reasons, i think it's just more a time thing, since crypto is still being developed. As nice as it would be for things to move straight up all the time, development of anything generally moves in waves and not a straight line, that includes price development too. It takes time for people to accept a new idea, and there is usually major resistance at certain points when the majority of the volume stops believing that a price matches the value of a product. However, as time goes on during a bear market new services and infrastructure are still being created and at some point it becomes enough to finally turn the majority of volume back to accepting the idea.

Personally, I don't analyze fundamentals very much anymore. I have no idea of telling how the majority have now began accepting an idea. At one point I thought I could but its much more difficult than just catching the HUGE news story that changes everything because how do you figure how which story that's gonna be? It's much easier, in my opinion, to just analyze the actually price and let someone else worry about news and fundamentals. Price will tell you everything about what the entire market is thinking, if you know how to analyze it properly and without bias.
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rivet.popper Intuit
2 years ago
Appreciate your insights! Thanks and hope you're long on DASH or LTC for the runup...
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
Gonna be long both of them shortly :)
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soap Intuit
2 years ago
Thank you! Where can I buy DASH?
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Intuit PRO soap
2 years ago
Crytpsy has the best liquidity. Cryptomargin.com has 10x and uses Cryptsy. Poloniex has 2.5x.
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soap Intuit
2 years ago
Thank you very much.
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rivet.popper
a year ago
BTW if you're really bullish on cryptos long-term, why are you showing a downtrend going to zero after the pump up to 260?
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
What do you mean to zero? It doesn't go that low. That's not really a long-term prediction (long-term meaning multiple years) anyway. I am bullish on the fundamentals of cryptocurrency but I do not trade fundamentals, I trade price. Fundamentals can't predict price action as accurately as price analysis can. The fundamentals can be extremely bullish but that doesn't tell me where the price is going to stop going down and start going up, it just tells me that its a promising technology and over the long-term there's a good chance for more widespread adoption and a lot of potential for new services to come out of it.
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
Ok it goes to about 137, but that is pretty low to be called "bullish". The chart is a bit confusing after the runup to 260 then. It's also confusing to say fundamentals are bullish if you see price still going down. One should reflect the other I think.

Where do you think price will be going if you are bullish long-term?
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
The interesting thing about markets is that they go up at the same time they are going down. Like I said, fundamentally, I'm long-term bullish but that doesn't mean in the short-term we are going to continuously go up. What I mean by that Is if you come look at a bitcoin chart in a year or two or five, there's a good chance it's going to be worth a lot more than it is today. I can't tell you what price it will be at what time based off fundamentals because thats relatively impossible to do. The price considers the fundamentals, but the fundamentals alone don't decide the price.

My long-term price analysis looks something like this.
snapshot
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
I appreciate this. So you think BTC is in a downtrend most of 2015 and then skyrockets sometime after that. Are you basing this idea on fundamentals or is it simply that we're in an overall uptrend over the last 5 years with regards to price? Your chart gives direction but doesn't show actual prices so it's hard to know how this logic works.
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
Only reason I am using the market cap chart here is because it has more data than any of the USD exchanges available on Tradingview, you can extrapolate the USD value based on the market cap which could go all the way down to $80 and up to $4000 based on this chart. I'm basing these predictions mostly off of Fibonacci and Elliott Wave rules, Doesn't really have too much to do with the fundamentals.

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Intuit PRO
a year ago
snapshot


Small update here, Looks like we are in the start of a wave 5 of (c). Good opportunity to take-profit and re-open lower. Shouldn't go much lower than a double bottom if it does end up even making it that far.
+2 Reply
Intuit PRO
a year ago
UPDATE 2: Bull run is started. Looks like wave 2 was a c failure flat. Time for a big pump.

snapshot
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
Hm, wasn't much of a pump for BTC, and LTC skyrocketed and then got half of the advance sold off. Is there more of this coming you think?
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
LTC didn't retrace that far. I wouldn't look at BFX for LTC their liquidity is not very good, I look mainly at OKC futures and cny. They didn't get that insane pump up to 2.4 like BFX did, and they've only had minor retracements so far, however I think futures could dip to 1.9 or so.

BTC looks like its going to start dropping too and atleast get a big correction before continuing up. If bears can break 220 then it will start to look really bearish.
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
Do you think LTC will continue up even if BTC is looking more bearish?
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rivet.popper rivet.popper
a year ago
In other words is the LTC pump over?
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
It's possible, can't be completely certain, but they are both looking down right now.
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
Do you think maybe investors could be getting out of BTC and into LTC, given there is so much more potential for upswing in LTC and that BTC seems to be held down by some bearwhales that sell out every rally?

Perhaps the next big bullish future is cryptos. God knows there is tons of money going into LTC. I'd like to know what these investors are thinking. Maybe they are worried BTC has plateaud and won't rise anymore.
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
IDK what the individuals are thinking but the market obviously thinks that LTC is undervalued in comparison to BTC, as you can see from the LTCBTC chart being quite bullish itself. I think that overall LTC and a select few other cryptos are going to make significantly larger percent gains than BTC. I actually have a lot more money invested into LTC and alts than I do in BTC.
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
Maybe LTC will reach BTC price levels as a sheer "fuck you" from the bulls to the bears holding down BTC.

Switching over to LTC seems easier and safer than trying to fight these assholes with tons of money holding down BTC. I for one would be super pleased if LTC went to 233 USD with little or no resistance...
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
haha IDK about parity with bitcoin. Chances are that if litecoin is going up btc will mostly follow. They both can go up at the same time but LTC will definitely make the bigger percent swings, simply because the market cap is lower. I mean within a few years MAYBE LTC could be in the hundreds of dollars. But we won't get there without significant resistance. It might be possible for LTC to reach 1/50th the price of BTC (double top), or maybe even higher.
snapshot
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
So like 11 USD for LTC if this pump continues?
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
If this pump continues on the weekly time-frame like it looks like it might, then this could easily break ATH withing a few months.
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
Well damn 10 times return is not bad at all. I do hope you're loaded up then.
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
loaded up x10, gotta love leverage ;)
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
Dammit I didn't have the balls to do that. But I have over 10,000 LTC and I would love to see that ATH get smashed.
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Intuit PRO
a year ago
UPDATE 3: This may be a good place to take profits or hedge your long position.
snapshot
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rivet.popper
a year ago
We are in the money, pal! Nice one. Any ideas on where we're going now?
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
Hell yeah! LTC is the real winner here, though, glad I moved most of my coins over to there.

My guess for BTC is that either we go to 260 like this published chart says OR we could even do something like this considering how much momentum we have.
snapshot


I actually think something like that is very likely, however, I'm just going to take this one day at a time and see where it goes.
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
290 would be delicious. In any case LTC is where the money's at right now so I think we can assume it will make even bigger gains.

Holding tight for the new ATH sometime this summer...
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
LTC I am mostly just going to hold until momentum starts to slow down on the daily time-frame. Catching a short at the top with some of my profits would be really juicy.

Also it should be noted that BTC could go all the way up to 350, basically I am just gonna hold until I see momentum slowing down on the higher TFs.

Unfortunately I am on weekly futures for both so I am may get settled out of my position before it reaches an optimal close point, Should most likely switch after I close out of these positions..
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
Why would you go short if you think LTC is going to break its ATH at some point in the near future? Isn't that a bit risky?
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
Not if you wait for the perfect moment, I am going to get settled out of my positions anyway so I will have to find new spots to go long. I don't plan on shorting for awhile either. At some point though you have to take profits, and if you picked a good spot to take profits you probably picked a good spot to go short too, because dumps after big pumps are so volatile you could easily increase your gains exponentially.
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
You could also lose your shirt, especially since LTC seems really strong. I'm gonna lock in some profit when the ATH gets close and then see where FOMO takes us after that. Who knows? We could see triple digit LTC by the fall!
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
well i'd only short something is really low r/r so i'd really only lose a minimal amount of profit if i was wrong vs. making huge gains if I am right, and I most likely wouldn't put more than a small percentage of my profit on any one signal. It's definitely worth the risk if you are patient and you know what you're doing. It can't go up forever.
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manbearpig Intuit
a year ago
excuse the noobishness.. but what is "TF's"
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Intuit PRO manbearpig
a year ago
Time-frame's
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manbearpig Intuit
a year ago
ahh thanks ^_^
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rivet.popper
a year ago
So today we seem to be forming some kind of pennant after the runup. I think we'll consolidate and then pump again in a few days. Your thoughts?
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
Yea could consolidate for a couple days. Not really sure what the EW count is yet, it's alot easier to tell once the pattern is completed, right now I'm just waiting because I got settled out of my shorts minutes before it dumped and I just woke up. Something will happen eventually but no trade zone right now for me until its more obvious what kind of pattern we are in.
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Intuit PRO
a year ago
UPDATE: Looks like we could be getting another wave up. Its likely that this is Wave 5 which will complete the chart that is posted above SO LONG AS we do not break over the current high, (or more precisely, wave 5 is not longer than 61.8% of wave 3 on an hl/2 chart)

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In the event that Wave 5 IS longer than 61.8% of Wave 3, it will most likely mean we are in a 3rd wave extension, and that we could take a shot at 280+
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Intuit PRO Intuit
a year ago
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
LTCUSD is looking like the same setup as on May 22nd too, with the pennant, etc. It turned into a short breakdown before pumping, so wonder what this time will bring...
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Intuit PRO
a year ago
snapshot


This chart is still in play. If we complete this impulse before breaking 1610cny on the 4H median chart we will have most likely completed a 5th Wave Failure for Wave 5 of c. This means it will retrace very quickly and we should begin the journey to 209 and below.

The alternative is that we form an extension and have a powerful wave up similar to LTC. Based on this chart:
The Great Crypto Bull-Trap


1610 is the confirmation line. If it remains unbroken I will be entering in shorts. If it breaks I will be adding to my long.
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