$BTC $25K X-MAS?!

Im seeing a lot of similairities to the last bigger correction. see the ath last time giving a 5 to 7 down before strong bounce on the dialy

on 4h you can see the ABC hit the target box perfectly this time and also last time. both pierced the 50 ema line for 2 candles and a strong bounced happened last time

It didnt happen now yet but it could happen soon. i dont know if it will but till now it looks like a copy paste. only thing is last time the drop was 25% and now its only 14%. maybe just fine. drops seem to get smaller and smaller. Also last time we left the bottom support briefly but got back soon after.

The higher we get parabolic the smaller the corrections, we first did 40%, then 30%, 25% and now barely 14%. last drop was a .5 fib bounce, now we just came short of the .382 bounce.

we have to see what happens now, for now i lean to bullish bounce. only small bearish sign is that the macd is lower then when previous ABC happened on the 4h chart but already higher then the small ath in between. daily macd is totally bullish.

Next view hours we will see if it is a fractal and we go to $25k area which is my next target if we go up. Probably around x-mas or before new year!




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Comment:

BTC well the drop continued. i looked at my log chart again redrew some lines. If we fall through 15k and stay under it looks we broke the trend and can expect more down. we did about 25% correction now just like the last 2 corrections. retrace to .618 fib from last wave. its make or break at this point i think. i dont dare to call what it will be. a larger correction imo wouldnt be weird, but continuation up into a new wave up is still on the table too.

Comment:

So it didnt hold and we needed a bigger correction. we did about 40% now and .5 fib bounce and on daily 50ema bounce. that could be enough as a bottom. it can go either way though but im starting to think this is it. target area for next leg up became a bit lower now.

Comment:

correction, the target aread became higher :)