MoonTrader
Long

A tale of two triangles

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
You really have to be careful when you see a new pattern forming because that pattern may simply be swallowed up by an even bigger pattern. As we can see here, there was a descending triangle that looked completely valid up until the point that it was invalidated. However, you'll notice it never actually broke through support. This is why it's important to take other factors into consideration and wait for technical confirmations. The bearish triangle was never confirmed, and now we are in the middle of an even larger bullish triangle still bouncing between support and resistance .

In this situation, the market was very oversold, so I was suspicious of the descending triangle although I still included it in my ideas. I just never actually traded on it and this is why. The conditions just weren't right. I am, however, trading this bullish triangle as the conditions for it are right.

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vortexspaces
2 years ago
Unfortunately all Triangles during Bear market go down. Do you think we are having global reversal now?
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ChartArt vortexspaces
2 years ago
Look where we are four months later. A reversal can happen starting here.

$BTCUSD - Double Three - Follow Tim Draper!
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vortexspaces ChartArt
2 years ago
hmm we can have one more leg down. The "killing" one xD
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ChartArt vortexspaces
2 years ago
and then another one, and another one, until we are at $10
+1 Reply
MarvinMartian ChartArt
2 years ago
Love them fractals ;)
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MoonTrader vortexspaces
2 years ago
Yes, I do think we have reversed.
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MoonTrader MoonTrader
2 years ago
Not sure why I got a -1 on that. All SYMMETRICAL triangles during a bear market *usually* go down. Not ALL triangles go down, especially ascending ones.
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MoonTrader
2 years ago
I just thought of something. It broke up the wrong way out of a descending triangle. If it then turned around and broke down the wrong way out of an ascending triangle in the same place... that would be pretty freaking weird. Hence, why I'm still bullish.
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MoonTrader
2 years ago
UPDATE:

*sigh* this idea has been invalidated
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netixen MoonTrader
2 years ago
I usually look at bitfinex, and it hasn't been invalidated there.
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netixen netixen
2 years ago
Or it is, depends if you want perfect triangles.
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MoonTrader netixen
2 years ago
Yeah, I'm not giving up on the bulls yet, but I'm less confident now.
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netixen MoonTrader
2 years ago
This was actually a confirmation for me.
I don't move my stops after I'm already in, but it's nice to get a confirm when I'm going early.

snapshot
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MoonTrader netixen
2 years ago
That's interesting. Perhaps I should have drawn it a bit differently.
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MoonTrader MoonTrader
2 years ago
I actually do recommend moving your stops, though. Once we make a new higher low, it's a safe bet that a move below that low would invalidate the idea. Just a thought.
+2 Reply
netixen MoonTrader
2 years ago
Yeah If we start trading above $230 I can look at moving to break even. I don't risk more than 1-2% of equity so I can be more lax about it. What P/L ratio did you take here?
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MoonTrader netixen
2 years ago
You mean R/R? It was about 4:1
+1 Reply
netixen netixen
2 years ago
why did I write P/L when i ment risk/reward
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MoonTrader netixen
2 years ago
no idea lol
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MoonTrader
2 years ago
UPDATE 21 Jan. 2015

Breakout confirmed! Despite the awkward drawing, this pattern appears to have served well once again.
+2 Reply
netixen MoonTrader
2 years ago
Yeah, it worked perfectly on bitfinex. We have to hit 238 before a new crossroad.

snapshot
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netixen MoonTrader
2 years ago
The question now is are we gonna move to my second target around $275, realising the full base height of the triangle or is the chart gonna form an ascending wedge and move back down.
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