Ultimately, I'm long BTC, but I have gotten it wrong several times as a speculator/ gambler/ fantasizer. I had also been underestimating the collective greed/fear associated with BITCOIN--in fact I didn't even consider it
Now, taking in to account that price is trading higher than the longterm averages and moving volume weighted average price, my understanding is this--
The public and average retail traders don't truly understand the battle for the control of bitcoin, because they don't understand its true value. Bitcoin has captured a lot of money through these type of buyers who buy and hold expecting a miracle payday. If these traders/speculators didn't have Bitcoin to speculate on where would their money be currently? This represents millions if not billions of dollars that would have been sitting in banks or elsewhere generating transaction fees for centralized financial institutions. quote: "Bitcoin use among consumers--
While its market capitalization grew at an unbelievable rate from 2013 to 2017, the public is only slowly becoming aware of its existence. As many as 25 percent of Americans were still not familiar with bitcoin and as of 2019. www.statista.com/sta...ket-capitalization/.
Even still, most haven't purchased bitcoin at all. Some are lucky enough to buy at the right time--but most are unlucky and buy when price is consolidating nicely in a channel, like now. When certain catalyst events, tweets, or etc happen to cause panic, these fake hodlr's sell their Bitcoin at losses, providing the lower prices and nice sums of BTC for "BIG money" to scoop up super cheap.
CURRENT PRICE IS CLOSE TO LONGTERM AVERAGES BUT HISTORICALLY THAT'S HAS NOT BEEN GOOD ENOUGH FOR BIG money. I expect a fundamental price drop below the long term action based on based on normal price action the psychology associated with retail buyers and veteran traders who simply do not know about BTC--this ignorance combined with fear will help create the radical wick reaching far below the channel support area--like you see on the chart back on 12, March 2020. The specific catalyst or event doesn't matter, there just needs to be one to get it going and I think price will plummet down. Once short-term price is below the long-term average, BTC will find support and make a sharp move toward a new all time high. I drew a box based on support and resistance levels, which I feel contains the relevant area that price will test. This is a broad range from 28K down to 14K possible. The fear index combined with institutional selling will push price lower until it's ideal for big money to buy.
A really good trader I follow and learn from taught me this concept of trying to figure out what "THEY" are trying to do. To me it's clear that BITCOIN is not at good enough a price to buy yet for institutional investors.
The longterm average price average has broken below support and is currently pointing to lower in my opinion
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Now, taking in to account that price is trading higher than the longterm averages and moving volume weighted average price, my understanding is this--
The public and average retail traders don't truly understand the battle for the control of bitcoin, because they don't understand its true value. Bitcoin has captured a lot of money through these type of buyers who buy and hold expecting a miracle payday. If these traders/speculators didn't have Bitcoin to speculate on where would their money be currently? This represents millions if not billions of dollars that would have been sitting in banks or elsewhere generating transaction fees for centralized financial institutions. quote: "Bitcoin use among consumers--
While its market capitalization grew at an unbelievable rate from 2013 to 2017, the public is only slowly becoming aware of its existence. As many as 25 percent of Americans were still not familiar with bitcoin and as of 2019. www.statista.com/sta...ket-capitalization/.
Even still, most haven't purchased bitcoin at all. Some are lucky enough to buy at the right time--but most are unlucky and buy when price is consolidating nicely in a channel, like now. When certain catalyst events, tweets, or etc happen to cause panic, these fake hodlr's sell their Bitcoin at losses, providing the lower prices and nice sums of BTC for "BIG money" to scoop up super cheap.
CURRENT PRICE IS CLOSE TO LONGTERM AVERAGES BUT HISTORICALLY THAT'S HAS NOT BEEN GOOD ENOUGH FOR BIG money. I expect a fundamental price drop below the long term action based on based on normal price action the psychology associated with retail buyers and veteran traders who simply do not know about BTC--this ignorance combined with fear will help create the radical wick reaching far below the channel support area--like you see on the chart back on 12, March 2020. The specific catalyst or event doesn't matter, there just needs to be one to get it going and I think price will plummet down. Once short-term price is below the long-term average, BTC will find support and make a sharp move toward a new all time high. I drew a box based on support and resistance levels, which I feel contains the relevant area that price will test. This is a broad range from 28K down to 14K possible. The fear index combined with institutional selling will push price lower until it's ideal for big money to buy.
A really good trader I follow and learn from taught me this concept of trying to figure out what "THEY" are trying to do. To me it's clear that BITCOIN is not at good enough a price to buy yet for institutional investors.
The longterm average price average has broken below support and is currently pointing to lower in my opinion