marcioevmiranda
Long

A possible scenario to ATH

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This may be an optimistic scenario, but it has good reasoning as I'll explain bellow.

This is a daily chart of BTCUSD . The trend lines (in black) show a wedge converging to an apex close to April 13th. Price has been testing this wedge . As we get closer to the apex we see a decreasing volatility . Currently the price is ranging between 8k and 9k (shown in the chart as horizontal support and resistance lines), the Awesome Oscillator shows a weaker momentum and the Ultimate Oscillator shows an oversold market. The drawing in black shows a possible price action. The closest the price gets to the apex, the stronger the breakout we could expect.

The kumo cloud above the price is very thick. The thicker the cloud, the stronger the resistance. This is due to the recent high volatility . Price action requires a stronger impulse to go through that cloud. I'm expecting this apex breakout to give that strength. We should see an increase in the Awesome oscillator to confirm that momentum.

After the wedge breakout I draw an Elliot 5 wave impulse (in black), using SR lines as guidelines, followed by a 3 wave correction. The end of wave 5 would be touching the top of the cloud, which provides resistance. This line is also the 0.5 retrace level from the big impulse from mid November to December. This cycle would be complete around May 10th. Notice this is close to the consensus conference, a major event in the crypto market.

Following this date there is another Elliot 5 way impulse (light green), which is also the wave 3 of the higher degree wave (so we could expect it to be bigger). Consensus may provide the momentum for this stronger wave. The drawing shows a kumo breakout around May 16th. Kumo breakout is a bullish signal in the Ichimuko system. Notice that the kumo cloud would be forming an usual rounded form (in the bottom) and making a twist around Jun 15th (30 days ahead of price). Chikou span would likely be breaking the cloud also. All of these are strong bullish signals, indicating a reverse in market structure. After the kumo break I would expect a pullback ( Elliot wave 2) and a bounce in the Tenkan or Kijun lines and then a strong wave 3 impulse. The drawing is showing wave 5 reaching all time highs in the middle of June.

Of course all of this is an educated guess, time will tell.

What do you think, does it make sense?

Comment: Zooming into the apex we see that BTC crossed bellow the trend line. However you may see that the market is very oversold (reaching a previous bottom) and it reversed every time it reached that level. Momentum is also not strong.

I've added the 200 daily MA. It's above the price, close to 9.2k. The kijun line is close to the 200 MA. Price is attracted to the kijun line, they will eventually be closer. All considered, I believed a reversal to the 9k level is iminent.

Comment: Zoom into the UO. Market oversold reaching a bottom level in the daily chart. Usually a reversal happens right away.

Comment: Market has changed sentiment quite a bit. Several ALTS showing good buy opportunities. In May there will be Consensus and I expect several positive announcements.

Regarding BTC, I expect the price to get attracted to Kijun Sen line (around 9k) and probably bounce there and then eventually break out. Lots of resistance between 9k and 10k. Kijun sen is getting closer to the kumo cloud and the 200 day MA is also around there.

AO is close to cross 0 which is bullish. Early good signs is price crossing Tenkan line and Chikou span almost crossing price.



Bellow is another indicator that I like a lot. It shows Market Structure according to fractals. Level 0 is a shorter time frame and subsequent levels indicate a bigger time frame. We can see a bullish structure in the first three levels but still bearish in the bigger trend. To change the bearish structure, price must break above 9200 (which is a level that I mentioned above). When a bullish structure consolidates in this bigger trend, it will be easier to make money with trades in the long side.

Comment: BTC just crossed kijun sen and getting into the cloud. Let's see if it can hold above kijun sen. This is a strong resistance. These are early good signs.



Looking at the market structure based on fractals we see that the big bearish trend was over on Abr 20th at 10:00. There was a buy signal for a short term trade today at 08:00 with a stop loss at 9200.



I'll be more bullish when the market structure shows a bullish trend in the bigger timeframe. I'll post it here when it happens. BTC breaking up the cloud will be the ultimate bullish signal.

Most of the Alt coins are showing clear signs of reversal and are still in good prices (close to 200 day MA). April has been a good month for long positions.
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