BTC Potential Sign of Weakness in Re-Distribution

This chart builds on my previous ideas that I’ve shared regarding the BTC price since October, 2021. It appears that the BTC price has been observed in descending stepping-stone horizontal Wyckoff re-distribution trading ranges. The down trend was stopped on Jan 22, 2022 with a selling climax ( SC ) and the BTC price entered an upward sloping re-distribution trading range (to be confirmed or to fail). Since the BTC price was in a down trending environment from Nov 10, 2021 to Jan 22, 2022, our bias for the current trading range should be in favor of Wyckoff re-distribution, although we should be open to the possibility that the volume and price will demonstrate that our bias was incorrect and that the current trading range was, in fact, Wyckoff re-accumulation.

With regard to the more recent price action, we likely have observed a shakeout (SO)/sign of weakness (SOW) in potential Phase D of Wyckoff re-distribution. If this is correct, then we will likely observe upward price movement back into the trading range for a last point of supply (LPSY) event followed by the price breaking the trading range support to the downside. The other possibility is that we have observed a SO/ Spring event. If this is correct, then we will observe a sign of strength (SOS) rally.

The upper and lower boundaries of the trading ranges are given by the solid black dotted lines. Significant bars, which help define important areas of support and resistance , are given by the blue shading. The blue arrows point to volume spikes.

Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally ( ARa ), automatic reaction (ARe), buying climax ( BC ), secondary test (ST), upthrust (UT), failed upthrust (FUT), last point of supply (LPSY), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SO), Phase A ( Ph A), Phase B ( Ph B), Phase C ( Ph C), Phase D ( Ph D), Phase E ( Ph E).

This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.


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