BTC: Double-tap of 52k, 52 to 55k, short to 37k?

This is purely speculative. I do not suggest taking this trade. I'm putting it here merely for posterity, so if I lose, I can revisit it later and know that a little information and some guts is not enough.

I suggest viewing price action on the 1-minute timeframe.

The 0.702 Fibonacci was clearly respected. Short double-tap before the ascent to the 0.786.

We passed the 0.786, and I expect now a retest of 52k.

So the whole movement would be a double-tap of the 0.786.

If I'm correct, we just saw the first run before dropping again to 52k, bouncing off the 0.702, and touching — on my chart at least — $54,986 as the final point of BTC's upside retracement. This constitutes point B in an ABC movement to 37k.

If BTC reaches 56k, this projection is invalid. I'd be waiting at that point in hope of a retest of 55k, in order to get out.

If 55k holds, I'll be considering a short down to 37k.

Comment:

To explain why $54,986 as the upper end of a double-tap on/from 52k: 1) I'm looking at confluence with the wick of 22 February on the 4-hourly chart; 2) There's a large sell wall on the TensorCharts at $55k. This might move, but I can see BTC being sucked into that, momentarily. That said, there are also sell walls at 54.5k, so this needs to be monitored; 3) In general, the second leg of a double-tap will penetrate further than the first. The first reached 54.5k.

Comment:

09 Mar 2021 10:32:58: After some consolidation under the 0.786 level, the next push up didn't reach 54.5k. Buyers and sellers are nearly equally matched, so this could reverse. We probably have another hour of play around the 0.786 line itself. A push beyond 54.5k might put in question whether 52k will be re-tested.

Comment:

09 Mar 2021 11:06:16: I'm revising this projection, in one and possibly two critical parts.
1) The base of BTC's retracement has always been in question. 37k, to retest the $1T total market cap (4 February), and align to the bull flag of 3 February, or 38.8k, which would be close but align to the third bull flag of 5-6 February? We know where the retracement starts (21 February). But we don't know where it ends. Price action around the 0.786 mark may give us confirmation either way.
2) I made a mistake in this projection. If we compare to 2017, the top end double-tap *did not* retrace all the way to the 0.702 on the 4-hourly chart. I'm revising that part certainly. BTC will not retest $52k from $54k. I'm setting $53k as the low before going in again to the 0.786. This necessitates revising the upper ceiling, too. I'm setting that at 54.6k.
3) Current price action around the 0.786 suggests that the base is not 37k, but possibly is 38.8k. This is using 2017 as a comparison, on the 4-hourly. But that also depends on how you date the base of the 2017 retracement. I'm dating it to 2 February and discounting the Dow Jones downturn on 4 February that appeared reflected in the BTC chart but that, in my view, compounded the downward swing rather than being integral to it. Bear in mind that the upper end double-tap we're currently charting now in BTC took 24hrs to play out in 2017. So what we are seeing right now may be premature. There are still 2hrs and 20mins to go until the close of the second 4-hourly candle after the upside impulse reached to the 0.786.
4) It's unlikely that the double-tap in 2017 plays out exactly again now. But I do think we'll see a double-tap before a strong turn to the downside. What is in question is how far BTC gets on the upper limit, which ultimately will help us determine where the base actually is. Where the 0.786 line actually is obviously depends on where the base is.
5) All of this analysis is relevant only if we hold to the ABC correction model. It's very possible (but in my view improbable) that BTC just continues on and past the 0.786, and that the retracement is over. My revised upper end limits for this invalidation signal would be a 4-hourly close above 55k.

Comment:

Note that the chart above used 37k as the base for the Fibonacci retracement. It is looking as if — but I'd say not yet confirmed — that this base should be revised to 38.8k. Doing so would mean that in terms of my original outline, the 0.702 was tapped on the downside, not revisited on the upside. Depending on what happens in the coming hours, I will publish a revised chart using 38.8k as the base. Given how long this double-tap on the upside might take, and given that 2017 is a reference point only, rather than a firm model, it's not possible to make a final call on the base just yet.

Comment:

09 Mar 2021 12:15:07: Large sell walls at $54.5 and $54,550. This really is the tipping point. If BTC breaks through these walls and continues, the whole ABC to 37-38k may be off.

Comment:

09 Mar 2021 12:34:17: Currently right on the 0.786, if we revise the base to 38.8k. On the minute chart, just dipped under. Will that line hold now? It was broken twice, if 38.8k is the base. The second break shallower than the first, which suggests to me — if the timeline of play is as much as 24hrs — that we'll see another retest of that line, and the 54.5 mark.

Comment:

09 Mar 2021 12:47:38: Now using 38.8k as the base of the retracement. This is what has happened, on the 15-minute timeframe:
1) An upward push touching the 0.702. Short retracement, before breaking through and up to the 0.786.
2) First high reached at 54.5k. Retracement to 53.3k.
3) Retest passing through the 0.786, but shallower, reaching 54.4.
4) RSI losing upside strength on the 1-minute chart. BTC currently just under the 0.786 again. Going for a retest, but less momentum.
5) The first retracement from the first break of the 0.786 reached about halfway into the 0.702. Probable that if upside momentum continues to lose strength we see price dip into the 2-thirds down area in the 0.702 — so potentially around 53k — before a stronger test of the 0.786, and potentially the last test, IF the ABC movement to (now) 38.8k remains valid.

Comment:

09 Mar 2021 13:19:00: The downside push on the second test of the 0.786 wasn't nearly as strong as the first (which is to be expected, given that the first was coming out of an upside push from below the 0.702 to above the 0.786). However, it does indicate significant upside pressure, most likely consolidating now on the 0.786 itself. Impossible to say if the next retest to the upside will be a push off the 0.786, or the result of a push down from the 0.786. Could be either.

Comment:

09 Mar 2021 13:24:42: Strong sell walls remain on the heatmap at $54,500 and $54,550. It will be hard for BTC to push past these walls without a significant bounce to the downside off them.

Comment:

09 Mar 2021 14:16:27: If 38.8k is the base of the macro Fibonacci, the last 4-hourly candle closed a fraction above it. There's a pretty intense struggle going on in what otherwise is a consolidation phase. Until now, impossible to say which impulse will win, but the macro must constitute significant downward pressure, and on the other side, if the macro Fibonacci is correct, there is nothing but buyers getting burned. The macro would suggest this is a bull trap. From the 0.786, there's nowhere to go but down.

Comment:

09 Mar 2021 15:58:59: I have to say, we're approaching the point where the ABC deep correction model may entirely break down. BTC is currently tapping $54,800. Much above $55k and I'd say the correction at the macro level may be over, and we'd be re-testing $58k soon. There's nothing above $56k on the heatmaps. This is either a good time to enter short, or it's suicide. If BTC continues up from here it would a dramatic departure from what macro Fibonacci level analysis would suggest.

Comment:

You may be wondering why I have the wall above the 0.786 on this chart. That wall is sat on the 0.786 of the initial downside impulse. Comparing January to now, in January the initial retracement also hit (as BTC is doing now) the 0.786 of the initial downside impulse. But it also went further from there, which is why I'm using another level macro Fibonacci to trace the entire retracement beyond the initial downside impulse. On the 12hr and 1 day timeframe, the macro retracement of the whole sit rested on the 0.786 Fibonacci level. It is from the base of that macro Fibonacci that I constructed the prediction for the next wave (February) and where it might retrace to. So far, from a daily perspective (with 9hrs to go until close), BTC has around a third of its candle above the macro 0.786 Fibonacci if 37k is it's base, and about 1/10th of its candle above the macro 0.786 Fibonacci if the base is 38.8k. It hasn't yet fully reached the full retracement on the initial downside impulse, at $55k. ABC will be invalidated, in my view, if we really get much above $55k on a 4-hour or longer timeframe. And again, it does seem to me that the base — if the ABC movement remains valid — will be 38.8k.

Comment:

09 Mar 2021 17:43:46: BTC is currently inert .... seemingly on pause, just below the 0.786 full Fibonacci retracement level on initial downside impulse of 21 February. The model suggests it will tap $55k. Probably twice. Then that wall should hold. But. I'm not getting alerts on any significant inflow of BTC to exchanges. A shortage would suggest the price would break through $55k. A glut would suggest a dump from $55k. Overall, there is a net outflow these past few days. On the other hand, that could ramp up fast. A massive sell wall remains on the heat map at $55k.300 BTC at least. About $1.6b. So that would sure slow the progress of prices. We just have to wait and see ....

Comment:

What worries me the most about the model on which this analysis is grounded is that the Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC is beyond the 0.786 of even the initial downside impulse only. On the one hand, you can say that some altcoins do not follow BTC. We have seen some examples of that. But many do. It's possible that these "errant" coins that do not mirror BTC have offset that chart and pulled the retracement beyond the 0.786 level. Normally speaking, you might expect a downturn from the 0.786. That's still not off the cards for the altcoin market cap. But it's one to keep an eye on. The Crypto Total Market Cap Including BTC is right on the 0.786 Fibonacci level now.

Comment:

NOTE: As we near towards $55k (the 0.786 Fibonacci on the 21 February downside impulse), keep your eyes open for any of the top 20 alt coins going on the rampage. If any make sudden upside leaps, it's a signal that the retracement for BTC is probably over, with the low having already come in at $43k. In past corrections, alts tend to decouple from BTC early.

Comment:

ANECDOTAL: I reviewed 24 large name alt coins who appear in price action to mirror, to a greater or lesser extent, BTC. In other words, alt coins pulled down by BTC's correction. I looked for how many on the daily chart had passed the neckline of the W formation of the correction, and how many had passed beyond the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement from the initial downward impulse. Here are the results:
Passed the neckline: 12 out of 24
Broke out above the 0.786: 8 of 24
So a mixed picture, with not much to learn from the alts at present on the macro price direction of BTC.

Comment:

CAUTION: I want to underline one hundred times, *there is a lot of uncertainty here*. This post is related to a macro analysis of BTC's January correction assuming that February is so proximate, and linked to January after the December breakout beyond the historical all time high, that its macro formation may follow a similar pattern to January. It is also an analysis based on looking back at the 2017 correction, though in this instance this correction does not, in my view, mark the end of the current BTC bull run. This is an important point to bear in mind, though the January correction didn't either, and fell in on itself from the 0.786 Fibonacci level. This said, as things stand right now, we didn't even arrive to the EMA crossover, and won't until and if the downturn is well confirmed. Anyone considering shorting BTC from $55k really needs to assess multiple factors and decide if there is confluence in one direction or another. Despite strong suggestions of a turn to the downside based on a macro and micro Fibonacci level analysis, and despite the allure of retesting the $1t total crypto market cap, it *might not happen*. Please be keenly attune to the risks, as well as any potential rewards. Just because a puzzle can fit together doesn't mean it will.

Comment:

09 Mar 2021 21:43:47: IMPORTANT UPDATE: The MACD line and the Signal line in the MACD indicator are converging on the daily chart right now. This is an important bullish sign. The last time this happened on the BTC chart was between 2 and 3 February, which marked the breakout period following the January correction. It's becoming increasingly difficult to see a deeper correction coming.

Comment:

10 Mar 2021 08:01:23: I'm still looking for a 4-hourly close above $55k, but as of this present moment, with no sell walls yet forming on the heat map over $55k, with no significant alerts of BTC inflows to exchanges, I think the macro Fibonacci analysis I've been working on is *invalidated*.

Comment:

10 Mar 2021 10:25:37: Huh? u.today/twitter-susp...r-crypto-influencers

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On the 4-hr signal:

Comment:

10 Mar 2021 18:06:09: Note that despite how large the last 4-hourly candle was, it didn't close above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. This puts us in a quandary, still.
Meanwhile, we're reaching now to $56.6k, which aligns to resistance tested 22 February.
This could well mark a turning point to the downside, but be careful: on the daily chart, if $56.6 is the present limit, there is a target between the 0.386 and 0.5 Fibonacci that aligns with a zone previously resistance, now support, that calls to be re-tested.
Don't mistake a return to $52k as BTC folding back upon itself on the way to $38k. I think honestly that projection is virtually invalidated. So I would expect a retest of $52k before a return to the upside.