Since 25 June, bitcoin is under the downward pressure of 4H SMA30, and then this pressure has intensified with 4H SMA/EMA 20. Of course, the bulls made several attempts to break through the resistance, but these purchases were "weak". As a result, bitcoin rebounded from M/BB and M/KC down to the lower bands.
Yesterday, in a brief update, I pointed out that "... TIs start moving into bearish camp, might go to L/KC (20;2) ~5950, or even below..." As you can see, bitcoin sank lower to ~5750.
Let us analyze further movements:
1) At the 4H TF: Bitcoin struck down L/KC (20; 2) and L/BB, but did not develop a further fall on L/DC. If the bulls would fix above L/KC (20;1.5) and L/BB, then we can expect a small increase, which will meet R on the middle bands BB, KC, DC ~6000-6100. This is confirmed by "overheated" TIs: RSI=33, %R=-71, MACD=-72 (MACD < signal line), DMI=21 (bearish ADX, +DI < -DI), CCI=-211 (possible back test to -100) and negative FT.
2) At the daily TF: Bitcoin struck down L/KC (20;2) and touched the lower bounds L/BB (narrowing), L/DC. In general, the daily chart shows a down-trend, and this is confirmed by TIs: RSI=32, %R=-87, MACD=-385 (MACD < signal line), DMI=51 (bearish ADX, + DI <-DI), CCI=-135 and negative FT. Also EMA6 < EMA9 < EMA12 < EMA26 indicate that the situation is negative.
If bears would develop pressure, then we might expect touching down to weekly EMA100 ~5600-5650. In the negative scenario, bitcoin might go even deeper up to weekly L/KC (20; 2), L/BB and SMA91 ~4900-5100 (all these lower targets should not apply in this month).
So, the end of the month is approaching, and I remind you that since 2015 the monthly candle has never closed below EMA20 ~5800-5900 (as of today) and below SMA20 ~ 5100-5200 (as of today). Therefore, the current monthly candle should close above these MA.
Conclusion: the analysis shows that today bitcoin might reach middle bands BB, KC, DC ~6000-6100, where it would meet a turn down. Technically, bitcoin might do a deep test to weekly EMA100 ~5600-5650, where buyers might launch a "rocket". Thus, this model shows good opportunity to open short above 6000, and then long at 5600.
Good luck to all.
Yesterday, in a brief update, I pointed out that "... TIs start moving into bearish camp, might go to L/KC (20;2) ~5950, or even below..." As you can see, bitcoin sank lower to ~5750.
Let us analyze further movements:
1) At the 4H TF: Bitcoin struck down L/KC (20; 2) and L/BB, but did not develop a further fall on L/DC. If the bulls would fix above L/KC (20;1.5) and L/BB, then we can expect a small increase, which will meet R on the middle bands BB, KC, DC ~6000-6100. This is confirmed by "overheated" TIs: RSI=33, %R=-71, MACD=-72 (MACD < signal line), DMI=21 (bearish ADX, +DI < -DI), CCI=-211 (possible back test to -100) and negative FT.
2) At the daily TF: Bitcoin struck down L/KC (20;2) and touched the lower bounds L/BB (narrowing), L/DC. In general, the daily chart shows a down-trend, and this is confirmed by TIs: RSI=32, %R=-87, MACD=-385 (MACD < signal line), DMI=51 (bearish ADX, + DI <-DI), CCI=-135 and negative FT. Also EMA6 < EMA9 < EMA12 < EMA26 indicate that the situation is negative.
If bears would develop pressure, then we might expect touching down to weekly EMA100 ~5600-5650. In the negative scenario, bitcoin might go even deeper up to weekly L/KC (20; 2), L/BB and SMA91 ~4900-5100 (all these lower targets should not apply in this month).
So, the end of the month is approaching, and I remind you that since 2015 the monthly candle has never closed below EMA20 ~5800-5900 (as of today) and below SMA20 ~ 5100-5200 (as of today). Therefore, the current monthly candle should close above these MA.
Conclusion: the analysis shows that today bitcoin might reach middle bands BB, KC, DC ~6000-6100, where it would meet a turn down. Technically, bitcoin might do a deep test to weekly EMA100 ~5600-5650, where buyers might launch a "rocket". Thus, this model shows good opportunity to open short above 6000, and then long at 5600.
Good luck to all.
Comment:
Shorts at 6250 and 6400 should be still active. SL (as I mentioned) - above daily EMA26 ~6600 (daily EMA26 was not touched since 10 May).
Bitcoin made attempt to break above 5H SMA100 and 5H EMA91, but failed. I assume that 4H and 5H TIs and Channels provide slight downward signal, though MAs are in upward movement.
Daily TIs are neutral, though technically daily candle closed above SMA20 (aka M/BB), but still below EMA20 (aka M/KC). Of course, if current daily candle would not fix above SMA/EMA20 - then it this jump was technical test of middle bands of channels, and eventual again would go to lower bands of channels ~5800-5900.
My target has not changed: wait until bitcoin hits 4H and 5H M/BB and M/KC (aka SMA20 and EMA20) ~6150-6200.
1) If this support holds test and provides upward signal, then to close mentioned short positions, jump into long.
2) If support fails test, then keep shorts until 4H and 5H lower bands of channels L/KC ~6000 or L/BB (expanding) ~5700-5800.
Have a good day.
Shorts at 6250 and 6400 should be still active. SL (as I mentioned) - above daily EMA26 ~6600 (daily EMA26 was not touched since 10 May).
Bitcoin made attempt to break above 5H SMA100 and 5H EMA91, but failed. I assume that 4H and 5H TIs and Channels provide slight downward signal, though MAs are in upward movement.
Daily TIs are neutral, though technically daily candle closed above SMA20 (aka M/BB), but still below EMA20 (aka M/KC). Of course, if current daily candle would not fix above SMA/EMA20 - then it this jump was technical test of middle bands of channels, and eventual again would go to lower bands of channels ~5800-5900.
My target has not changed: wait until bitcoin hits 4H and 5H M/BB and M/KC (aka SMA20 and EMA20) ~6150-6200.
1) If this support holds test and provides upward signal, then to close mentioned short positions, jump into long.
2) If support fails test, then keep shorts until 4H and 5H lower bands of channels L/KC ~6000 or L/BB (expanding) ~5700-5800.
Have a good day.
I assume that all these jumps show that someone started to build short position during the weekend, and it all might fall down on Monday. Taking this approach, it was reasonable to open short at ~6250 (10% of deposit) and now at ~6400 (20% of deposit). I am not sure about SL, might be daily EMA26 ~6620, as it was not touched since 10 May.
Regarding analysis.
At 4H TF we have lots of bullish signals as: broke up U/KC(20;2), U/BB, confirmed U/DC, +DI > -DI, MACD > signal line, FT is bullish, but CCI and %R show that we need a back-test ~6200-6300. EMA6 > EMA9 > EMA12 > EMA26 .
On the other hand, 5H U/DC was not fixed, and this 5H TF is not so bullish as 4H TF.
Of course, at the daily TF bitcoin made it to SMA/EMA20 (aka M/BB and M/KC), while daily BB is not expanding – so that was not breakthrough, but rather technical movement.