Well, BTC just dumped like a 14 ton T-Rex and we are right back at the key support of 8.4k. I suspect this was a stop run, so I have rebought here (stopped out in profit at 8550) with my stops below 8350. If we can't get some momentum here and fall sub 8350 I'll just let my stops hit and wait for another trade. However, as of now, I am sticking to the same target of 8.9k-9.1k and taking the bet that this was just a stop run. If not, the downside is $50/BTC with an upside of at least 4x that, possibly up to 10x that so I'd say it's worth the risk.
See my previous two posts for more in depth information and analysis. For anyone new, this is key - you must move your stops up into profit with your trade and if they hit, they hit. Don't move them and don't try to re-buy immediately if you get stopped out. If you know how to set stops, then you need to trust your plan and stick to it. If you don't know how to set stops yet, you still need to set them and stick to them and if they don't work how you were expecting (i.e. too tight and you get stop ran with the price immediately bouncing right back up after hitting your stop, then the process of setting bad stops will allow you to learn how to set good stops).
Keep in mind there's still a fair chance this doesn't bounce and we head down lower towards my longer term target of 7.2k (see my post on that just a few posts back). This is just a bet that's worth the risk to me with the upside being quite juicy. Simple as that. Still looking to short around 8.9k-9.1k and will be both taking profit and building shorts in that range if this pans out. If this breaks down, I will be looking to short on the bounce at the most obvious resistance. Check back if we drop to see what my plan is at that point.
See my previous two posts for more in depth information and analysis. For anyone new, this is key - you must move your stops up into profit with your trade and if they hit, they hit. Don't move them and don't try to re-buy immediately if you get stopped out. If you know how to set stops, then you need to trust your plan and stick to it. If you don't know how to set stops yet, you still need to set them and stick to them and if they don't work how you were expecting (i.e. too tight and you get stop ran with the price immediately bouncing right back up after hitting your stop, then the process of setting bad stops will allow you to learn how to set good stops).
Keep in mind there's still a fair chance this doesn't bounce and we head down lower towards my longer term target of 7.2k (see my post on that just a few posts back). This is just a bet that's worth the risk to me with the upside being quite juicy. Simple as that. Still looking to short around 8.9k-9.1k and will be both taking profit and building shorts in that range if this pans out. If this breaks down, I will be looking to short on the bounce at the most obvious resistance. Check back if we drop to see what my plan is at that point.
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My stop's at 8330 on bitmex my the way. It could hit that and still bounce, I just won't have enough confidence to bet on it at that point.
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After a drop like that, we really need some buying to come in at these levels. We're in a short term down trend still and likely could have already found the top at 8750 (which is just $150 away from my previous target). The good news is that if this breaks down, especially past 8.2k, we will know which direction we're headed. If this breaks up, we're still overall bearish will a short-term bullish bias. This could change depending on how we react at the 8.9k-9.1k levels as well.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Stopped. Will watch to see how things react here but I'm likely just going to wait until tomorrow to look for a better trade setup than trying to be a professional knife catcher. The sad bounce (not even) there makes me much more bearish and I will likely be looking for short opportunities only but we will see.
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Reason for bearishness now is that 8.4k was a big support. 8.2k is support also, but 8.4k held up like a house of cards. Breaking down good support like nothing is very bearish. Lack of bounce is very bearish. 3 day chart is very bearish. 8.4k will now be resistance. If you're looking for a good scalp, put some asks under 8.4k with stops above (you really need to be using bitmex for this because they pay 0.25% for limit orders. I have a link below for 10% off fees (market orders) if you're not already on it. US restricted (but half of their customer base is US customers using VPNs anyways). Only need the VPN to sign up.
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This chart looks bullish. Two 2 hour candle hammers in a row... we may see a leg up but I can't say for sure if we will break the high of 7750 made earlier.
This chart looks bullish. Two 2 hour candle hammers in a row... we may see a leg up but I can't say for sure if we will break the high of 7750 made earlier.
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$$$
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Stop run call was money. We hit 8884 I wouldn’t be getting past that but I’m on my phone so hard to look to closely. My target was 8.9-91. We hit 8.9