If you look at my previous BTC report, I specifically explained that B Waves are TRICKY. I also explained that price had to break back below the 6500 area in order to confirm that a C wave was in play, otherwise the market is likely going higher.
The current price structure may still be a B Wave, but the factors that support that argument are much fewer in number. The factors that can lead to a C Wave are the potential (8040 is not much higher than 7899). And also the failed breakout zone which price can actually go as high as 8500 and sell off hard from there. Why 8500? The range between 7899 and 8500 is an extension zone that is proportionate relative to the 5400 low. When failed breakouts occur, they are more likely to occur within this zone. If price pushes beyond 8500, then that is a sign of strength and signals higher prices to come.
There are NO reversal structures or support breaks to justify shorts at the MOMENT. The 7k level is the trend support (.382 of structure from 5400 low.) There are NO reversal candles or larger time frame triggers that signal selling. At the moment there is a mini consolidation that is unfolding which usually leads to higher prices since these are trend continuation patterns.
As far as the C Wave, price must break below 7k in order to prove that a selling wave is in progress. Shorting before this happens (IF it happens) especially without any larger time frame structure is a low probability trade. An example of structure is the recent formation that occurred at the 7899 high (a week and a half ago). I do not consider this new high part of a triple top until there is proof of a reversal. Again there is nothing.
Also something to keep in mind, markets that are weak test resistance and often reject it quickly. If the current situation was a triple top, price should be rejecting the 7900 level and instead it is consolidating on it. That is not a sign of coming weakness.
I keep emphasizing that being flexible is key in fast markets like this. On the short time horizon, there is no time for opinions. Is it possible that the BTC minors and developer community are using their pull to manipulate this market? Sure, so even more reason to be flexible and recognize what the market is doing NOW and if there are any signs that it wants to reverse. Steve Spencer (The S of SMB Capital), my former boss and world class trader still says, "Be in the present, be flexible". This is an absolute must for short term speculation.
In summary, this market is consolidating at a potential peak which can be taken as a sign of strength. Is it risky to get long if it breaks higher? Absolutely, especially on larger time horizon strategies like swing trading. "This market is always risky" you say, but it is riskier at the moment because it is flirting with all time highs, not a higher low which is where the reward/risk is favorable for swing trades. Wave counts work until they don't, just like everything else in TA. Our job as price action traders is to uncover the clues available now and adjust to changes as the market evolves. Listening to the market is an essential skill for short term trading, while imposing your own ideas upon it will give you a completely random result, but our own natural bias enjoys thinking we were "right". Good trades come from good plans, and flexible mindsets.
Comments and questions welcome.