So the target area got reached of that inverse H&S , but bulls were able to celebrate for 5 seconds i think :) At the moment the price is still stable above the 6500/6450 which is a good sign, but the way the market has been moving lately, it means nothing at all because most movements are too random. We had our 100% proof a week ago, twice even that 1 person can move this market completely.
First moment when i told you live about those big buy walls and hidden orders on Bitfinex, while every exchange was dropping and price differences went up to 50 points the whale on Bitfinex kept pushing it with his 5/10K buy wall. Few days later the same thing happened and we all saw what happened a few days ago when Bitmex was down (because of maintenance) that on the second it went down Bitfinex alone pushed the whole market up and forced a squeeze. And on the minute Bitmex was live for trading again the price got pushed down again even though it was quite clear the market wanted to move up.
What most of you may not now about TA, it only works when a market is in balance. Means that no buyer or seller should be able to move the price, not even a bit actually. In the traditional markets it's also not perfect, because even there we have people who can move certain assets, but not in the extremes as we see in crypto. TA is a translation into the charts, of what the market wants to do and NOT what a few people have in mind. This is why volume is so important, something we have been missing for months now. Because the higher the volume the less a few people can influence the outcome. It's insane actually that 1 person can move the market as we have seen a week ago.
Anyway, the only way we can predict mid-term moves is trying to figure out what these people have in mind. They can't hide what their doing but it's easier said than done to know what we need to look at.
As you know from my previous analysis, my view was bullish before we rallied to the 6900, but now it's more difficult to know what their plan is. I see 2 options at the moment with that dirty game they played.
The same whale who squeezed the price on Bitfinex had some big sell orders ready on Bitmex at the highs. Because, the first 5 minutes Bitmex went live again it would only be in the cancel order mode. So you would not be able to post sell orders in those 5 minutes, you should have placed them before it went offline. Knowing that if you push the price high enough the liquidations on Bitmex would do the work FOR you to move the price up. It even reached 7150 on Bitmex. Then all you need to do next is, use the same bitcoins 0.04% you bought at the 6450/6600 to push the price down again when the volume is at it's lowest.
Other options is, also realistic, just several whales fighting each other. Because Bitfinex has been the most bullish exchange for a while now and they thought it was the perfect time to push the price up when the big boss Bitmex was offline. But since we dropped so much again, it shows how big Bitmex has become. A futures exchanges ruling the entire crypto world! t's actually something to cry about IMO -0.13% , because it doesn't get any sicker than this. Since in theory a future should follow the underlying value, not the other way around. But for the ones who don't know, welcome to crypto, where the people are in control and not the government or the rich ;) For the ones who don't get this, it's just as bad or maybe even worse than our current system, doesn't give me any pleasure to say this. Wish i am wrong but we just can't ignore certain facts that we see in this market i 2018. So far it's safe to say, "the people" are just cash cows for the rich. Even the ones who made allot of money in crypto, have been giving the biggest part away again to the rich. Something i warned every one about half a year ago.
First moment when i told you live about those big buy walls and hidden orders on Bitfinex, while every exchange was dropping and price differences went up to 50 points the whale on Bitfinex kept pushing it with his 5/10K buy wall. Few days later the same thing happened and we all saw what happened a few days ago when Bitmex was down (because of maintenance) that on the second it went down Bitfinex alone pushed the whole market up and forced a squeeze. And on the minute Bitmex was live for trading again the price got pushed down again even though it was quite clear the market wanted to move up.
What most of you may not now about TA, it only works when a market is in balance. Means that no buyer or seller should be able to move the price, not even a bit actually. In the traditional markets it's also not perfect, because even there we have people who can move certain assets, but not in the extremes as we see in crypto. TA is a translation into the charts, of what the market wants to do and NOT what a few people have in mind. This is why volume is so important, something we have been missing for months now. Because the higher the volume the less a few people can influence the outcome. It's insane actually that 1 person can move the market as we have seen a week ago.
Anyway, the only way we can predict mid-term moves is trying to figure out what these people have in mind. They can't hide what their doing but it's easier said than done to know what we need to look at.
As you know from my previous analysis, my view was bullish before we rallied to the 6900, but now it's more difficult to know what their plan is. I see 2 options at the moment with that dirty game they played.
The same whale who squeezed the price on Bitfinex had some big sell orders ready on Bitmex at the highs. Because, the first 5 minutes Bitmex went live again it would only be in the cancel order mode. So you would not be able to post sell orders in those 5 minutes, you should have placed them before it went offline. Knowing that if you push the price high enough the liquidations on Bitmex would do the work FOR you to move the price up. It even reached 7150 on Bitmex. Then all you need to do next is, use the same bitcoins 0.04% you bought at the 6450/6600 to push the price down again when the volume is at it's lowest.
Other options is, also realistic, just several whales fighting each other. Because Bitfinex has been the most bullish exchange for a while now and they thought it was the perfect time to push the price up when the big boss Bitmex was offline. But since we dropped so much again, it shows how big Bitmex has become. A futures exchanges ruling the entire crypto world! t's actually something to cry about IMO -0.13% , because it doesn't get any sicker than this. Since in theory a future should follow the underlying value, not the other way around. But for the ones who don't know, welcome to crypto, where the people are in control and not the government or the rich ;) For the ones who don't get this, it's just as bad or maybe even worse than our current system, doesn't give me any pleasure to say this. Wish i am wrong but we just can't ignore certain facts that we see in this market i 2018. So far it's safe to say, "the people" are just cash cows for the rich. Even the ones who made allot of money in crypto, have been giving the biggest part away again to the rich. Something i warned every one about half a year ago.
Comment:
Previous analysis
Comment:
At the moment it's 50/50 looks like a small bearish wedge, which usually says we can make a (small) drop again) but in this spot, it could also mean we could be loading up for a another (small) squeeze up.
Comment:
I am just amazed of what i am seeing here now, just looks like a normal natural moving rally. Have not seen this in a very long time. Could this mean the time of tricks is over? Since we are going up, does this confirm it was accumulation like i mentioned in my previous analysis? That would mean the drop we made from 6900 to 6250 was probably just another big shake out again. Too soon to say of course. Alts are not sharing the conviction bitcoin has at the moment, so that's not a good sign. But alts were not showing any conviction during the rally from 6100 to 8500 as well. So for Bitcoin it does say something, but doesn't mean it can't go up. But will probably mean it's just a temp move again.
Just happy to see we have some normal movement again. The daily chart is looking pretty good, but the volume is not confirming the rally. Do need to see an increase for this to become a sustainable rally. Maybe it will happen after a break of 6800/7000. For me everything below the 7300 needs to be considered mid-term bear trend.
Just happy to see we have some normal movement again. The daily chart is looking pretty good, but the volume is not confirming the rally. Do need to see an increase for this to become a sustainable rally. Maybe it will happen after a break of 6800/7000. For me everything below the 7300 needs to be considered mid-term bear trend.
Comment:
Forgot to mention the previous update, look at the green circles. How almost 100% identical those moves are. Coincidence? Natural movement of a market? Yeah right :)
Comment:
Things are still looking good and healthy. Would almost think like the manipulative whales are staying out now and leaving the market to go up. But it's weekend, so that's always tricky. If the green support around 6600 holds, big chance we move up later today or tomorrow. Looks like a bigger flag in the making with targets above 7K. But the price needs to stay stable, bulls need to keep things in control.
Comment:
The bull flag is still holding, but there is clearly some resistance at the 6800. The bigger picture, i see these three options. The 2 blue ones are the bullish version. Even if the break this bull flag or triangle, that 6600ish area could still turn things around. If the green level doesn't hold, think we might test the low 6K's again with increased chances that we might drop even more.
For the bulls, the move up should not take TOO long, we need to see some more conviction of the bulls, more attempts to push higher. So far it's to much as if the bears are letting them get higher so they can short for the best prices. For the bulls to reach 7K levels again, the bears need to feel some real pressure. Shorts are decreasing a bit on Finex and the longs are increasing, so on one hand that's a good sign. I think we will see the direction of the market tomorrow for the rest of the week.
For the bulls, the move up should not take TOO long, we need to see some more conviction of the bulls, more attempts to push higher. So far it's to much as if the bears are letting them get higher so they can short for the best prices. For the bulls to reach 7K levels again, the bears need to feel some real pressure. Shorts are decreasing a bit on Finex and the longs are increasing, so on one hand that's a good sign. I think we will see the direction of the market tomorrow for the rest of the week.
Comment:
The blue circle is reached already, the bull flag clearly failed. Seems the first signs were when bears kept pushing it down when it was about to break upwards a few hours ago. Now the 6550/6600 should hold, otherwise that upwards trend line from the lows might be the only thing left that can save the bulls. At the low we just made, i saw allot of big buy order on Bitmex between 6620/6580 waiting, orders from 2 mil up to 6 mil. Of course, looking like they already knew the price would drop to these levels. But we can't know if these are buying orders to go long or closing orders of short positions. That's something we can only guess at the moment.
Comment:
Target of the triangle reached, the green support zone worked very good, the bounce so far is good and strong. The first resistance broke already, seems the bulls never lost control (almost).
Comment:
Looks like we will make a triangle here, says we could/should make another test of the support and from that point on we need to see some conviction of the bulls.
Comment:
Was looking good, but just too much resistance at above the 7700. Looks like a small triangle (chart on the right), this could make us test the support levels again. The triangle on the left is still in play
Comment:
Bitcoin should have dropped a bit more earlier, but it didn't. ALts have made some jumps up out of nowhere, can't help but get the feeling this is not a coincidence.
Comment:
So the 6780 is still getting dumped. This tells us a break of this level will probably produce a squeeze. But no guarantee we will get there.They make these moves so many times the past months (can see them as Bart moves but they have a different hair cut now (different shape)). So bulls be aware, the warning goes for the alts analysis i posted as well earlier. Even thought things looked very good earlier today now it has become very dangerous again.
There are some support levels now,the rising trend line from the 5850 low and the triangle I have showed the last 2 days. Those could still work as support, we do not want to see those break! But difficult thing is, almost every level between here and 6200 is support, so very difficult to give a good guidelines.
There are some support levels now,the rising trend line from the 5850 low and the triangle I have showed the last 2 days. Those could still work as support, we do not want to see those break! But difficult thing is, almost every level between here and 6200 is support, so very difficult to give a good guidelines.
Comment:
And back up again, ping pong all over again. Really looked like it would make a Bart move, was below that trend line so looked like it was ready to make another move down of 100 points, but instead just went back up again. Lets see if this attempt will work out, 6800 is still the level to break
Comment:
This is why we need to break this 6800/7000, still hanging over the market. The bear flag/wedge was not in play anymore last week, but because of this sideways movemnt and dropping volume it is in full play at this moment. So i think the coming days are crucial, maybe even the coming hours. But as i mentioned before, there are allot of support levels on the way down. But usually with a wedge, the moves are fast. SO could make a quick dump to 6400 and back up to 6700 before making the real drop.
At the moment i am still in favor of the bullish version, but this should not take too much time anymore.
At the moment i am still in favor of the bullish version, but this should not take too much time anymore.
Comment:
Just so funny to see how this market works. A whale on Bitfinex trying to push it up and another on Bitmex pushing it down. Or are they the same maybe? I have a picture that shows how Bitmex pushed the market down after that peak earlier today, but can't post it here.
This message i posted earlier today but forgot to push the update button :)
For now, still boring as sh.. with Bitcoin. So many bearish patterns and so many bullish patterns. Would be best for the bulls if they do it the coming hours, there is not much room left. There are several targets at the moment, we will probably see a rally if we break the 6800 but we really need to see it get above the 6900 and even better, above 7000 to shake of all the bearish patterns. Otherwise that weight will still hang above this market.
This message i posted earlier today but forgot to push the update button :)
For now, still boring as sh.. with Bitcoin. So many bearish patterns and so many bullish patterns. Would be best for the bulls if they do it the coming hours, there is not much room left. There are several targets at the moment, we will probably see a rally if we break the 6800 but we really need to see it get above the 6900 and even better, above 7000 to shake of all the bearish patterns. Otherwise that weight will still hang above this market.
Comment:
A little more, bulls need to hold the 6900 for a while, the big bearish wedge/flag will get invalidated. One good thing though to celebrate, those Bitmex whales got a dildo up their ..., price on Mex went 100 points higher and stayed there for quite some time, that shows allot of people shorted there, or one whale shorted allot :)
Comment:
Still looking good, shorts on Finex are closing, so if we DO see another push up, they will probably panic buy=> squeeze the price up. The longer it takes, the less likely it becomes
Comment:
Still good and stable, but no real bull run conviction yet. Could still happen, but i think a break of the 7000 is needed for that to happen. Think we should not even drop below the 6850 anymore, but whatever happens, drop below 6700/6750 is not allowed anymore.
Comment:
First target reached, up to the second one
Comment:
First small sign of weakness, but things still look good though. The 7000ish is a good support and 6850/6900 as well. Still have a target of around 7300, but rather see it stay above the 6900
Comment:
Safe to say this channel has no meaning. Looks like the market has a little FOMO in it now. Also Shorts on Finex keep dropping, so that is a bullish sign as well
Comment:
Comment:
I will try to post an update later today. For now...
Still inside this triangle. At the moment still bigger chance we break upwards, but longer it takes the less likely. At the moment i would say 65/35. This should bring us to the 7300 ish target. But always a chance for a move down. I think if the green breaks, we should assume a drop towards 6850/6950
Still inside this triangle. At the moment still bigger chance we break upwards, but longer it takes the less likely. At the moment i would say 65/35. This should bring us to the 7300 ish target. But always a chance for a move down. I think if the green breaks, we should assume a drop towards 6850/6950
Comment:
Should bounce up now and stay above this green support now. Otherwise it should drop like i mentioned here above
Comment:
Wrong chart
Comment:
The first one failed, seems the fomo is still not in the market. Target of this (failed) triangle is reached, could maybe drop a little bit more. But this 6900/6850 should hold, otherwise the whole uptrend well be in danger.
Comment:
To keep the strenght of the rally in good shape, think we really need to stay above 6850/6900, need to see there is no big fear in the market anymore. So even though a drop to 6700 is still healthy, i won't like it. Want to see at least a little bit of fomo.
This panic drop shows again, that there is still fear and panic in this market, still no real confidence. But the market has been damaged allot the past 3 months, so thats not a big surprise, but i though that maybe the current rally, together with the alts, we might have put that period behind us.
So if we stay above the 6850, i think it can still work out. A drop below will be bad for the confidence again.
This panic drop shows again, that there is still fear and panic in this market, still no real confidence. But the market has been damaged allot the past 3 months, so thats not a big surprise, but i though that maybe the current rally, together with the alts, we might have put that period behind us.
So if we stay above the 6850, i think it can still work out. A drop below will be bad for the confidence again.
Comment:
So the second support worked, good bounce so far so still in the safe zone. There is still a chance that we can see another drop to test the 6850. Unless we stay above the 7030/7000. That would be a good convincing level to bounce up from. If that would happen and we rally above this 7070, we should assume we will break the 7150 and because of that rally even more.
If we drop below the 7000, i am still bullish then, but less convinced of a break of 7150. Below the 6850 brings things to almost 50/50.
If we drop below the 7000, i am still bullish then, but less convinced of a break of 7150. Below the 6850 brings things to almost 50/50.
Comment:
Now it has become a bit difficult to judge what the next step is. From the looks of it, it can drop more, Reason is that it is no panic selling like yesterday. Can't say if this is it already or make another 50 point drop, or maybe another after that.
Now the 7070 did not break yesterday so we followed that blue line i posted yesterday, These kind of waves (like we have done now since the high) are normal, but just not used to it in crypto. As far as i can make out of it, it's because of the FOMO factor, think we really need to change that from now on. Don't know if it will come back, just can't say, maybe if we make a new high (8500) but untill then maybe best to give the market less credit about it's strength.
Now the 7070 did not break yesterday so we followed that blue line i posted yesterday, These kind of waves (like we have done now since the high) are normal, but just not used to it in crypto. As far as i can make out of it, it's because of the FOMO factor, think we really need to change that from now on. Don't know if it will come back, just can't say, maybe if we make a new high (8500) but untill then maybe best to give the market less credit about it's strength.
Comment:
Looks like a small inverse H&S in the making, Bitfinex is again the bullish one, look at that spike up with the volume. They need to hold the 6850/60 now. That way they can push higher again.
Comment:
I started with this chart earlier today, looks a bit crazy of course. But when i have time i will make the new analysis later today and will explain the whole story
Want to support me? My affiliates:
partner.bybit.com/b/botje12
onelink.to/quantfury
Add invite code AFTER signing up, bonus up to $250: 4JU345F3
1 trade, 30 day wait, to claim bonus
www.kucoin.com/r/af/rMQN2A5
partner.bybit.com/b/botje12
onelink.to/quantfury
Add invite code AFTER signing up, bonus up to $250: 4JU345F3
1 trade, 30 day wait, to claim bonus
www.kucoin.com/r/af/rMQN2A5