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Previous analysis/position: “If bulls can breakthrough $6,500 resistance then I will be starting to sweat my positions a little bit. Now that I am fully positioned it is time for the hardest part: waiting and doing nothing.” Short ETH:USD | ETH:BTC | BCH:BTC & ADA:BTC
Short term predictions: 1 day: <$5,975 | 1 week: Bounce off $5,000 > Reject $5,975 | 1 month predictions: Breakdown $5,000 on or before 9/5
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $6,100 & $5,975 then $4,950
BTCUSDSHORTS: Forming bull flag under resistance, expecting new ATH'
Funding Rates: longs receive 0.0268% (will need it)
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -6.33% | 26 = -10.42%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -9.84% | 128 = -17.12%
FIB’s: If start from 7/24 sell then: 0.5 = $5,811 | 0.618 = 0.5 | 0.382 = $5,147
Candlestick analysis: Bearish engulfing following the daily reversal candles.
Ichimoku Cloud: Still hasn’t made bearish TK’ Cross.
TD’ Sequential: Price flip on daily. R-2 < R-1 on weekly.
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24 hours = $6,316 | Time to fill the gap from $4,300 to $6,000!
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = -1.76% | 1w = -10.15% | 2w = -19.57% | 1m = +/- 0
Bollinger Bands: Haven’t started to bulge just yet. Room to fall on daily & weekly.
Trendline: Connect 7/31 to 8/7. Once 1 month low is taken out (currently testing) then expect a new trend to develop (sharper decline)
Daily Trend: bearish
Fractals: UP = $8,317 | DOWN = $6,084
On Balance Volume: pulling back sharply
ADX: Daily ADX starting to angle upward after supporting 25. Indicates that the sell off has only just begun.
Chaikin Money Flow: Seems to be falling at the sharpest angle we have ever seen (Bitfinex)
RSI (30 setting): Daily bear flag at 40
Stoch: Getting stuck below 20 where the stongest sell offs can occur.
Summary: If you were not expecting this sell off today then it is time to take a deep breath and make some decisions. I firmly believe that this is only the beginning, especially in regards to the alts. The alts are selling off, but the real fear hasn’t set in yet. That will happen when/if BTC' breaks down $5,975.
If you are not in position then do not chase! Bitcoin' is still trading above $6,100 and the weekly red 2 trading under a red 1 is providing an entry. I would feel comfortable with a stop at $6,576. However if that is your plan then first ask yourself the following question: “what stopped you from doing it over the weekend?”
Previous analysis/position: “If bulls can breakthrough $6,500 resistance then I will be starting to sweat my positions a little bit. Now that I am fully positioned it is time for the hardest part: waiting and doing nothing.” Short ETH:USD | ETH:BTC | BCH:BTC & ADA:BTC
Short term predictions: 1 day: <$5,975 | 1 week: Bounce off $5,000 > Reject $5,975 | 1 month predictions: Breakdown $5,000 on or before 9/5
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $6,100 & $5,975 then $4,950
BTCUSDSHORTS: Forming bull flag under resistance, expecting new ATH'
Funding Rates: longs receive 0.0268% (will need it)
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -6.33% | 26 = -10.42%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -9.84% | 128 = -17.12%
FIB’s: If start from 7/24 sell then: 0.5 = $5,811 | 0.618 = 0.5 | 0.382 = $5,147
Candlestick analysis: Bearish engulfing following the daily reversal candles.
Ichimoku Cloud: Still hasn’t made bearish TK’ Cross.
TD’ Sequential: Price flip on daily. R-2 < R-1 on weekly.
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24 hours = $6,316 | Time to fill the gap from $4,300 to $6,000!
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = -1.76% | 1w = -10.15% | 2w = -19.57% | 1m = +/- 0
Bollinger Bands: Haven’t started to bulge just yet. Room to fall on daily & weekly.
Trendline: Connect 7/31 to 8/7. Once 1 month low is taken out (currently testing) then expect a new trend to develop (sharper decline)
Daily Trend: bearish
Fractals: UP = $8,317 | DOWN = $6,084
On Balance Volume: pulling back sharply
ADX: Daily ADX starting to angle upward after supporting 25. Indicates that the sell off has only just begun.
Chaikin Money Flow: Seems to be falling at the sharpest angle we have ever seen (Bitfinex)
RSI (30 setting): Daily bear flag at 40
Stoch: Getting stuck below 20 where the stongest sell offs can occur.
Summary: If you were not expecting this sell off today then it is time to take a deep breath and make some decisions. I firmly believe that this is only the beginning, especially in regards to the alts. The alts are selling off, but the real fear hasn’t set in yet. That will happen when/if BTC' breaks down $5,975.
If you are not in position then do not chase! Bitcoin' is still trading above $6,100 and the weekly red 2 trading under a red 1 is providing an entry. I would feel comfortable with a stop at $6,576. However if that is your plan then first ask yourself the following question: “what stopped you from doing it over the weekend?”
Comment:
Before shorting Bitcoin take a look at this chart and consider the possibility of a major alt capitulation (salt season) sending BTC to the moon like it did in November of 2017.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/