botje11
Short

Neckline test for Bitcoin, should drop towards 8500/8700 now

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin             has managed to make a full retracement towards the neckline again, which showes some strenght. But it faces multiple resistances now. The biggest one is the neckline of course. It has made a small rising wedge now here at this very moment.
It did however break out of the big decending trend line , which cannot be ignored. But the neckline weighs heavier, so it's a test for now. My followers know i have made a good ride from the 11700 to 10500, got back in again at 10800 and got out today at 9600/9700 waiting for this moment. We should drop towards the 8500/8700 now
Comment: The small rising wedge
Comment: Could be making one last leg up for the wig. My stop is around 10500/10600
Comment: I go the other half in at 10230
Comment:
Comment: I have added a few more at 10350, stop around 10600
Comment: I have closed half of my position for even money, i can see a rescue operation going on again. So i am reducing risk
Comment: Its clear what the market wants at the moment, and that is getting out. Look at the 2 blue area's, these big drops while makink this up wave says it all. But manipulation is just to easy. I will probably add a few again if it drops below the 10100. You can see that small yellow area, it was about to fall out of the wedge, but they just pushed it back in, scaring all the people who are (went) short. The H&S is still intact, but to be honoust i wanted it to stay below the 10.300. But a 100/200 move on an H&S of 1500 points is not much with the Bitcoin.

Comment: Finally, a sign of weakness now. I have lowered my stop to the red area. Just have a bad feeling about this and it's almost weekend where manipulation is at it's best.
Comment: Look at this, chart of Bitcoin Cash. Made a very nice inverse H&S at the low yesterday, than an even more beautiful bull flag, but it dropped below it again making it a false move. Looking (also at this) the top for now is probably set!
Comment: Moment of truth, this move down could be a retest of than bearish channel and make a move up again, or it was a false outbreak and it drops back in and will probably accelerate downwards
Comment: What i talked about and showed a few days ago, here another two of those high volume buy candles at a temp high
Comment: For now, it's just making a bearish flag after a 250 point drop, so it will probably just continue down and test that channel
Comment: The buyers are trying to hold it above the 10K and making an attempt to turn this bear flag up, would confirm a bounce of that down trend channel. We should see volume and some acceleration up to confirm it. Otherwise it will only be a delay of the drop
Comment: Next resistance is around 10250. So they did manage to turn the bear flag around, made a small spike up as i said it should do. If they break the 10250, i think the short bearish sentiment will be over. I will probably reduce my position even more to reduce risk while i can still close it there for almost even money. I will let like 25% ride with a stop around 10600 and probably take the rest of the day off. I am trying to stop trading weekends, because it's a waste of time most of the times
Comment: I have reduced my position another time, to a small postion total, stop at 10420 now, I am starting to see a big bull flag forming one 15 min chart. I will quite for the rest of the day and enjoy my huge winnings of this week :)
Comment: It's just guessing now, typical weekend moves. Sometimes taking a break is more profitable than trading all the time! Starting fresh and objective again. I will try to update a few times, but i wont be trading anymore (unless i see a clear signal!). Letting this small short position ride with a stop around 10400. Good luck!
Comment: Did not think it would do that, could be s small shake out. Above that grean area it's still a pullback to that bigger downtrend channel. If this small bear flag becomes real, it should drop below it

Comment: A flag that did work :) always nice. It's still hanging on that support, rather see it 100 points below it to say it dropped back in again
Comment: The bull flag has turned into a downward channel. My stop will be a break of that resistance
Comment: I got out while i still have some profit, sideways action again, up and down, dont want to be in it
Comment: A break of 10.400 would confirm a higher high and low and would make things more bullish again
Comment: When you look at the chart of Bitcoin Cash, we can see much better indicator of the trend since the low at 6K of BTC. The orange consolidation fase (BTC 7500/9000 fase). the small blue one shows a bear trap, but actually indicating where the market was headed. The yellow area shows where BTC was at the high of 11.700, so BCH was clearly much more bearish, while BTC was breaking out of the long term downtrend since the 20K high.
And now; there are 2 options, the small bullish inverse H&S will be completed and we see another big move up towards the 1470. The brake of the neckline around 1300, would probably mean a break for BTC of the heavy resistance at 10400/10500. If BCH manages to make the H&S BTC will probably go to the 11K again.
If it inverse H&S fails, than BCH will be making a big H&S with the neckline around 1200/1175. If this happens it should be dropping towards the low of 800. This would mean BTC should go at least in the 7K area i think. We should get our answer very soon.
Comment: So i see chances are much bigger now that we will continue up and the H&S of Bitcoin fails and does not get completed. I think we will get our answer today
Comment: I posted a new Bitocin Cash chart (the one above)
Comment: A Bitcoin stakeholder, example of what is talk about sometimes. Depending on a high price of Bitocin. I would support the price of BTC if i had these amounts of value to protect :)
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/02/24/mining-boom-bitmain-profit-over-3-billion/
Comment: Anyone got a big news fact for this drop? If there is nothing, than it's really bad for this market. This aint no typical sideways action (i think) i have been talking about many times
Comment: Its not getting back up again. The move this morning was a surprise for me. I think its a weekend move, confusing bulls and bears again. So I dont think we Will go much lower. But correct me if I am wrong, the whole week the drops been during Asian trading hours. Think it’s a bad sign? Maybe some people there have insinde information again? About the government? Like a month ago
Comment: Reality check, something i have been talking about for months. How miners or certain people have to much control, therefore making Bitcoin just as influential for corruption as the current financial system
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/02/24/proof-of-work-major-problem-bitcoin/
Comment: It's looking really weak, no buy strength whatsoever, just seems dead. I do have to give them some credit, they got me out with my big short position :)
Comment: I think we are just going to drop even more, no volume, no buying. Unless rescue 911 Spoofy and the gang jump in :)
Comment: They are setting it up to push it higher, curious to see if they manage it this time, if there are enough buyers now
Comment: If it stays above this green area, we could still see a recovery
Comment: When we look at the Alts, BCH is one of the best indicators, it did not get above that neckline and therefore it made a failed (inverse) H&S which means most of the time we see an acceleration the opposite way. Now BCH dropped below the neckline of that bigger H&S AND it has made the retrace back to it again and has bounced off now. So this could mean the 9700 was the max recovery for BTC now. It's just a theory, but has proven itself several times now in a few weeks. At least something to keep in mind
Comment:
Comment: I am surprised to see it's dropping in the weekend. Almost certain we will break the 9K downwards. I am still flat though,
Comment: I think the move up is done for now, target of the double bottom at 8300 is reached, so it could continue down from here
Comment: I have to say, having some doubts now, it went higher than i thought it would do a few hours ago, and when i zoom out, the lows ar getting less low each time. And i starting to see some sort of bullish wedge now
Comment: This picture is what i am staring to see now
Comment: Zoom in of the picture, here you can see it broke out the smaller wedge, but there i no volume to confirm it, so it's very weak. However, if it can continue like this and go towards the 10K AND break out of the bigger bullish wedge (flag) WITH volume, it could still bring bullish momentum completely back and we could just make a new bull rally again. But high volume is really needed, just like the rally that started from the 8800 a few weeks ago.
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Lots of people expecting a bounce from $8900 fib support, but some calling for down to $8200.
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botje11 JasonT79
@JasonT79, My call is in between :) It never goes where it expected to go, thats for sure
+1 Reply
congrats on your gains ! the fall from 10.4 wiped out mine.
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botje11 Aamir66
@Aamir66, that’s to bad, sometimes an automatic stop is better, when you are not able to watch it. But it was a very mean move! Everything was almost bullish. I just think it’s the sideways movement that happens in the weekend. That’s why I said yesterday that I try to avoid it from now on
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Aamir66 botje11
@botje11, yeah will do. thanks.
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Yeah man! nice analisys...if you want check here
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COINBASE and BITSTAMP do not show that spike. What means?
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@giurti, difficult to say, but as we can see now, the market eventually dropped to that price.
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There was some news about Austria supporting Pan-EU Crypto Regulation based on rules for gold. Not sure if that's enough to make the market tank like that?
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