Now the halving has happened, does that mean SPX has to rally?
I want to start this post by sharing with you my deep analysis of SPX reactions to previous BTC halving events to show you how we know the only way is up for SPX after the halving.
The halving is said to be a bullish event for BTC. In this analysis I'll show you the same things cited for price moves would suggest the same for the SPX.
So, here's the 2012 halving and BTC. Went sideways a little and then it went up.
And this happened in the SPX too.
Then there was 2016. A bit crashy for BTC but it went up after.
Again, our signal flawlessly fired in SPX. Bit crashy but went up after.
In 2020 the halving essentially marked the low in BTC.
And SPX too.
It looks like the BTC halving singlehandedly saved up from the pandemic crash!
But would that make any sense? May there have been other reasons SPX went up entirely unrelated to the halving?
If there may have been, then isn't it true there may have similarly been other events affecting BTC. The cause/effect of the halving may be an illusion.
I'd say we can support this thesis it may be an illusion by it being trivial for the me to create the exact same illusion with SPX. And hopefully we all agree SPX isn't based on the halving ...
Did anything else notable happen around these dates?
Well, if we take Fed decisions and interest rates in 2012 the Fed made it clear it intended to keep interest rates low for a long time. It's possible this decision caused rallies in all risk on assets, including BTC.
Into 2016 interest rates were raising. This was when things got a "Bit crashy" in risk assets.
The 2020 low was made when interest rates were dropped back to 0.25%. This may have caused rallies in all risk assets, including BTC.
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To conclude, there's no more evidence that BTC halving leads to a rally in BTC than there is the BTC halving leads to a rally in SPX.
We can directly correlate the price action around the halving to risk on/off assets such as stocks.
We can directly correlate the action of previous BTC halvings with interest rates and policies that affect risk on/off assets.
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It's very easy to draw a false correlation of something based on 3 instances that have all happened during a net uptrend.
If the market has overall headed higher and the conditions you use to prove the theory worked is the market heading higher after, any random thing could be linked with it. For example, if I wear my lucky jumper every Christmas and BTC is up some time after Christmas, I can say it's my jumper.
And I can say that showing a 100% hit rate ....
So long as we're quite flexible with the requirements. Which BTC bulls seem to be with the halving. They'll tell you how the only way is up after it when this is true in 2/3 instances. That really isn't all that far from random when we're talking about the size of the sample size.
Indeed, if we dropped after this halving event that'd be 2/4 and the result would be considered statistically random.
The usefulness of the halving for forecasting future trends is unproven. There are many other simple correlations that work at least as well, if not better, for explaining the same price moves.
People have been led to believe this is a strong indicator of future success. Really, it's been 2/3 (Granted, this is an edge but it's a small sample making it less useful) on near - mid term reactions. 1/3 times you could have bought 30% lower after the halving.
And without considering all the correlations, we can not make forward looking assumptions. Maybe the halving is important, maybe it's just copying the SPX. Perhaps it's just observing reactions to monetary policy. All of these things can change. I might not wear my lucky jumper this year.
I'd recommend its wise to not put too much faith in something that there's only been three instances of. The reactions to it have been inconsistent and the general positive trend can also be explained with things like friendly rates - which no longer exist.
The halving is said to be a bullish event for BTC. In this analysis I'll show you the same things cited for price moves would suggest the same for the SPX.
So, here's the 2012 halving and BTC. Went sideways a little and then it went up.
And this happened in the SPX too.
Then there was 2016. A bit crashy for BTC but it went up after.
Again, our signal flawlessly fired in SPX. Bit crashy but went up after.
In 2020 the halving essentially marked the low in BTC.
And SPX too.
It looks like the BTC halving singlehandedly saved up from the pandemic crash!
But would that make any sense? May there have been other reasons SPX went up entirely unrelated to the halving?
If there may have been, then isn't it true there may have similarly been other events affecting BTC. The cause/effect of the halving may be an illusion.
I'd say we can support this thesis it may be an illusion by it being trivial for the me to create the exact same illusion with SPX. And hopefully we all agree SPX isn't based on the halving ...
Did anything else notable happen around these dates?
Well, if we take Fed decisions and interest rates in 2012 the Fed made it clear it intended to keep interest rates low for a long time. It's possible this decision caused rallies in all risk on assets, including BTC.
Into 2016 interest rates were raising. This was when things got a "Bit crashy" in risk assets.
The 2020 low was made when interest rates were dropped back to 0.25%. This may have caused rallies in all risk assets, including BTC.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To conclude, there's no more evidence that BTC halving leads to a rally in BTC than there is the BTC halving leads to a rally in SPX.
We can directly correlate the price action around the halving to risk on/off assets such as stocks.
We can directly correlate the action of previous BTC halvings with interest rates and policies that affect risk on/off assets.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's very easy to draw a false correlation of something based on 3 instances that have all happened during a net uptrend.
If the market has overall headed higher and the conditions you use to prove the theory worked is the market heading higher after, any random thing could be linked with it. For example, if I wear my lucky jumper every Christmas and BTC is up some time after Christmas, I can say it's my jumper.
And I can say that showing a 100% hit rate ....
So long as we're quite flexible with the requirements. Which BTC bulls seem to be with the halving. They'll tell you how the only way is up after it when this is true in 2/3 instances. That really isn't all that far from random when we're talking about the size of the sample size.
Indeed, if we dropped after this halving event that'd be 2/4 and the result would be considered statistically random.
The usefulness of the halving for forecasting future trends is unproven. There are many other simple correlations that work at least as well, if not better, for explaining the same price moves.
People have been led to believe this is a strong indicator of future success. Really, it's been 2/3 (Granted, this is an edge but it's a small sample making it less useful) on near - mid term reactions. 1/3 times you could have bought 30% lower after the halving.
And without considering all the correlations, we can not make forward looking assumptions. Maybe the halving is important, maybe it's just copying the SPX. Perhaps it's just observing reactions to monetary policy. All of these things can change. I might not wear my lucky jumper this year.
I'd recommend its wise to not put too much faith in something that there's only been three instances of. The reactions to it have been inconsistent and the general positive trend can also be explained with things like friendly rates - which no longer exist.
Comment:
And DXY.
Comment:
Thermo Fisher Scientific is a logistics company that delivers medicines.
As I am sure you'd expect, also heavily influenced by the BTC halving. Just look at these reactions, Always up 150 days after the halving.
It really is incredible how this event affects absolutely everything making it go up.
Just wow!
As I am sure you'd expect, also heavily influenced by the BTC halving. Just look at these reactions, Always up 150 days after the halving.
It really is incredible how this event affects absolutely everything making it go up.
Just wow!
Comment:
I've really rolled up my analytical sleeves and am ready to take the DEEPEST DIVE into the halving creating bull runs.
We all know markets are forward looking and something that effects literally everything must be something the market saw coming.
To evidence this, I had a look at the four previous IMPLIED HALVINGS.
And wow!
Turns out the first one started the dot.com bubble.
Second one was a bit crashy, let's not dwell on it.
Third one made the low for the dot.com crash.
Last one made the 2009 low and was start of greatest rally in modern history.
You heard it here first!
We all know markets are forward looking and something that effects literally everything must be something the market saw coming.
To evidence this, I had a look at the four previous IMPLIED HALVINGS.
And wow!
Turns out the first one started the dot.com bubble.
Second one was a bit crashy, let's not dwell on it.
Third one made the low for the dot.com crash.
Last one made the 2009 low and was start of greatest rally in modern history.
You heard it here first!
Comment:
This thread has taken a lot of study, time and effort but I believe we've now covered everything you'll ever have to know about investing in any market ever.
As long as you know your Halving-Economics, you'll be just fine.
A firm and deep understanding of the four times table is essential. Everything else follows from that.
As long as you know your Halving-Economics, you'll be just fine.
A firm and deep understanding of the four times table is essential. Everything else follows from that.
Comment:
TLDR of the thread.
All you need to know is the market might go up after the halving or be a bit crashy. 100% proven success rate in all markets examined.
All you need to know is the market might go up after the halving or be a bit crashy. 100% proven success rate in all markets examined.
Comment:
BTC down 13% so far since the halving.
Impressively keeping up it's 100% record of never rallying immediately upon the halving.
The FOMO case was unwarranted.
Impressively keeping up it's 100% record of never rallying immediately upon the halving.
The FOMO case was unwarranted.
Just look at these previous reactions.