!!Hourly look at BTC, last chance for long before 6500!!
Here is the way I'm seeing BTC shake out in the upcoming hours. Please note, this is Bitfinex pricing.
We are currently on the bottom range of an up channel with 6352 acting as support headed toward a kumo twist (generally meaning a trend reversal, which in this case is up). However, looking at the EMAs we are seeing 50 and 100 EMA acting as resistance overhead and RSI tightening up along with SMA crossing soon. Generally seeing the SMA cross is also trend reversal, however, it usually tends to act as a resistance point and more often we end up going back down to support before heading up as part of the reversal pattern.
I don't think I have to say it because we all know we are at a critical juncture for Bitcoin, but be sure to put a TIGHT stop loss if you're doing a high leverage trade from there. I think all the technical signs are pointing to us going up, BUT recognize that the crypto markets are more than obviously manipulated.
We have seen shorts dramatically decreasing on Bitmex and longs almost on par with shorts... And I'm sure that there is financial incentive for a lot of exchanges to not want to lose money on something that seems technically obvious (that we should be going up in this channel). We could easily see a stop hunt to liquidate a ton of high leverage longs before we head up, so once again, SET THAT STOP LOSS TIGHT! If we go lower than support outside of this channel, we likely DROP HARD because a lot of positions are being liquidated and a ton of stop losses happening.
There has been a lot of talk about 5800 or lower by more than a few very experienced traders out there, and frankly I'm not one of them. I have about a year under my belt and I've only learned through some losses. When experienced traders have a gut feeling, work that into your TA because you lose more money when you're too proud to think you can be wrong. If you have a plan for being wrong, you will make more money in the long run at the expense of losing a little short term.
The way I'm looking at it is there is a higher chance we go up without going down from this channel, but there is also a decent chance we have a hard dump and pump... And I'm talking dump down to 6100-5800 and pump back up to 7000 or higher kind of like the flash pump we had back on Sept 15th when we wicked up to 7700 in a single hour.
Be careful, the water is very choppy and uncharted from here.
We are currently on the bottom range of an up channel with 6352 acting as support headed toward a kumo twist (generally meaning a trend reversal, which in this case is up). However, looking at the EMAs we are seeing 50 and 100 EMA acting as resistance overhead and RSI tightening up along with SMA crossing soon. Generally seeing the SMA cross is also trend reversal, however, it usually tends to act as a resistance point and more often we end up going back down to support before heading up as part of the reversal pattern.
I don't think I have to say it because we all know we are at a critical juncture for Bitcoin, but be sure to put a TIGHT stop loss if you're doing a high leverage trade from there. I think all the technical signs are pointing to us going up, BUT recognize that the crypto markets are more than obviously manipulated.
We have seen shorts dramatically decreasing on Bitmex and longs almost on par with shorts... And I'm sure that there is financial incentive for a lot of exchanges to not want to lose money on something that seems technically obvious (that we should be going up in this channel). We could easily see a stop hunt to liquidate a ton of high leverage longs before we head up, so once again, SET THAT STOP LOSS TIGHT! If we go lower than support outside of this channel, we likely DROP HARD because a lot of positions are being liquidated and a ton of stop losses happening.
There has been a lot of talk about 5800 or lower by more than a few very experienced traders out there, and frankly I'm not one of them. I have about a year under my belt and I've only learned through some losses. When experienced traders have a gut feeling, work that into your TA because you lose more money when you're too proud to think you can be wrong. If you have a plan for being wrong, you will make more money in the long run at the expense of losing a little short term.
The way I'm looking at it is there is a higher chance we go up without going down from this channel, but there is also a decent chance we have a hard dump and pump... And I'm talking dump down to 6100-5800 and pump back up to 7000 or higher kind of like the flash pump we had back on Sept 15th when we wicked up to 7700 in a single hour.
Be careful, the water is very choppy and uncharted from here.
Comment:
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Comment:
I just wanted to update with a BITMEX chart too, I know a lot of people trade actively in that exchange also.
It seems like the Bitmex prices are already starting to follow the idea above, obviously there are pricing and action differences between exchanges.
I also wanted to add to the idea that the support structure for my original idea MAY actually be a flag pattern, which in that case, the entry price would still only roughly be 6 pips below the current support at 6327 (on Bitmex).
Just to ensure my order does go through, I have a limit buy set up at 6327 anyways, just to make sure I enter the market because I really do think we will be going up anyways, even if I miss out on the whole 6 pip difference IF we are in that flag pattern in the screenshot. I Set my STOP LOSS at 6299 which is just right below the majority of the orders that may get hunted down the actual jump up.
It seems like the Bitmex prices are already starting to follow the idea above, obviously there are pricing and action differences between exchanges.
I also wanted to add to the idea that the support structure for my original idea MAY actually be a flag pattern, which in that case, the entry price would still only roughly be 6 pips below the current support at 6327 (on Bitmex).
Just to ensure my order does go through, I have a limit buy set up at 6327 anyways, just to make sure I enter the market because I really do think we will be going up anyways, even if I miss out on the whole 6 pip difference IF we are in that flag pattern in the screenshot. I Set my STOP LOSS at 6299 which is just right below the majority of the orders that may get hunted down the actual jump up.
Comment:
Morning update:
So good news and bad news.
Those of you that entered this exact trade would have likely never actually entered the trade because there was lift off just EXACTLY 1 pip ABOVE that 3328 support point.
Now, even if you did enter this trade with heavy leverage, now is the time to just get out. It failed to break out much high above the EMAs and is now going to likely come back down. Take your small profits and exit positions if you got into them.
Current Bitfinex chart:
So good news and bad news.
Those of you that entered this exact trade would have likely never actually entered the trade because there was lift off just EXACTLY 1 pip ABOVE that 3328 support point.
Now, even if you did enter this trade with heavy leverage, now is the time to just get out. It failed to break out much high above the EMAs and is now going to likely come back down. Take your small profits and exit positions if you got into them.
Current Bitfinex chart:
Comment:
Of course it would.... Just before I posted this last update, skyrockets to 6500 like I though it would in my earlier analysis. sigh. Of course it didn't stay there for long an it looks like we will be in a sideways pattern for a bit till it has to make another decision. I will probably just make another chart and post for that when we get to it as many things may change by then.