Asia entering the market again soon - could go both ways

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We've seen a failed retest of the 10k support und bounced up to 11,2k. The next movement will come within the following hours, as asians are entering the market again and we might move above the 11,2k zone or get a dump and retest the now even weaker 10k support line.
I recommend staying calm and waiting out further movement, since this one could go both ways.
There's most likely not enough volume to get above the 12k for now, so another retest of the lower 10k support seems inevitable in the next few days, regardless of asias next move tonight.
As for now, we're still in a bearish trend and won't breake the 13k support at least until the end of january.

There are two possible scenarios right now.
1. If we get a pump from asia, we will probably go to 12k see another bounce down from there, which is where I'm putting my sell orders in that case. Since I don't see any way of us getting above the strong 13k support line, this trade might come in quite handy for us, because not getting above 13k would also mean bouncing down again to at least 12k (where we sold).

2. However, getting a dump from asia in the next few hours could lead to a serious retest of the 10k zone with the small possibility of peaking down deeper for a double bottom at around 9,2k. I do not recommend lowering your position if we are digging down tonight, as it is unclear if we actually get below 10k on the next retest. We should then hold what we got and increase our position by buying between 9,2k and 10k. That is because an extended move downwards(breaking even below 9,2k) is HIGHLY unlikely (at least for now).

Note: We do NOT want to move below 10k entirely before 26th/27th of january, because that might open us up to a lower low once the CME futures expire at that date. Such a scenario could get us below 8k and therefor into a state where we definitely do not want to be (unless we have some FIAT available obviously).

If you're inexperienced, your best move might be watching and learning from this huge correction and only trading in very small portions of your portfolio. Again, this is a very volatile setup for us and unexpected price movements could leave us with unnecessary losses.


This is no financial advice and only for educational purposes.
Comment: Prepare for the upcoming movement, volume and RSI seem quite balanced.
It's up to the asians entirely for the next hours!
Comment: The MACD (30 minutes) is about to cross over and there are no real overshots above the $11,2k mark.

However, the longer term trend (4 hours) suggests that we might see another bullrun.

The MACD undermines that possibility since it is about to cross over into a bulltrend.
Be prepared for a potential hit at the 12k. This could become our low-risk trading opportunity.

But let's keep observing until we have further data available!
Comment: Looks like we are heading for the $10k again. So we better just watch and don't participate in any high-risk trades from here.
Only time will tell when our next push above $11,2k is going to come!
Comment: Edit: Only time will tell if we are going to have another push above $11,2k tonight or tomorrow.*
Keep an eye on any bullish reversal signs, another bulltrap is very likely to build itself up until the end of January!
Comment: Quite surprising that we went on with a sideways movement.
There's not enough volume to move up for now and we have to wait out further signals.

I expect another retest of the $10k zone within the next 12 hours.
Comment: And with that another bounce off it could occur, leading to another bulltrap that could very well try to hit the $12k.

Keep in mind: We are still in a clear downtrend and haven't hit our bottom yet.
I recommend you to wait for 2 possible scenarios:

1. Price hits the $10k again and bounces off. If we want to trade by increasing our position right here, is going to depend on other indicators entirely. Don't attempt any gambling at this stage if you're not confident enough yet.

2. Price finds support around the $11,2k area and moves up to around $12k. In this case we can decrease our position quite safely and wait for the next drop to rebuy into, since we are almost certain that we will NOT surpass the $13k and therefor bounce back to a lower point. This is a very low-risk trade.

Though scenario 2 is very unlikely, let's keep calm and wait for the next bigger price move.
Comment: I'll publish an updated graph later, because our title could be misleading.
Comment: Note: This post aimed for a possible short-term trade last night. However, it continued its sideways movement and the requirements for possible trades were not met.
I will give us an update later with a more general overview to our current situation.
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