HamadaMark

Is BTC's Rise a New Bull Run or Just a Temporary Rally?

HamadaMark Updated   
INDEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Hello Tradingview community and dear followers, welcome to our first BTC update of 2023 on the main page.


after a period of stagnant market and a decline of more than 75% from its all-time high of $69,000 to $15,400 (BITSTAMP prices) over the last 13 months. finally, we have seen BTC show signs of recovery at the start of 2023, with gains of 28% so far, after a period of a stagnant market. This leads us to the main question on many traders' minds: Is BTC's rise a new bull run or just a temporary rally?

Please note that the information presented here is based on the writer's opinion and should not be taken as a guarantee of future performance. It is intended for informational and educational purposes only not financial advice.

Based on our chart analysis and comparison of BTC's movement after BTC halving, we can see that the data is interesting. Even though this downward cycle is happening at a different rate than previous cycles, we can extract some insights.

On the bullish side,
BTC has a chance to establish $15,XXX as the bottom and start a new bullish trend until the next halving and the formation of a new all-time high.

For this to happen, BTC needs to hold above $15,000 and break out to $27,000 in the coming weeks during Q1 of 2023. If this occurs, we may see BTC continue to move up to $32,000/$37,000, making this year a green year until Q2.

Then, a final correction to $21,000/$18,000, followed by the Bitcoin halving to create a clear path to a new all-time high of around $100,000. However, it's important to keep in mind that these predictions are based on the current market conditions and are subject to change. It's important to stay informed and use a combination of technical and fundamental analysis to make informed decisions.


On the bearish side,
if BTC fails to break out above $24,000/$27,000 in the next weeks and falls back below $17,500, it could lead to another panic sell-off, resulting in further losses for bulls. This could potentially push BTC down to $15,000/$13,000/$10,000, which is a possibility that some traders have been anticipating and we were on of those people.


Our personal view,
based on the current performance, the bulls appear to be doing well and have a good chance to break out above the last high of $22,000. This would be a positive sign for a trend reversal. However, until that happens, we are not fully bullish yet. Nevertheless, we have been taking advantage of the movement by sharing some signals at $15,800/$16,300/$16,700 which are currently yielding good gains.

We believe that the bottom is only confirmed when a trend reversal occurs and not before. During the period before a trend reversal, a potential bottom can be identified, and trading can be done based on that potential with strict risk management in place.

PS:
The person who is obsessed with bullish thought can extract 10000 scenarios for bullish movement and the same with a bearish person But As analysts, we provide both bullish and bearish scenarios, highlighting potential buy and sell zones. However, it's up to the trader to conduct their own research, use caution, and make informed decisions. Keep in mind, the market is unpredictable, and having a bullish or bearish bias doesn't guarantee a certain outcome. Please note, we do not short BTC, and our predictions may be right or wrong and this is not financial advice.


Please keep in mind that this is not financial advice and the purpose of these charts is to provide an idea of coin movement, not buy or sell signals. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and not suitable for everyone, so be aware of the potential risks before making any investment decisions. The information presented here is a personal effort and is subject to success or failure, and we welcome constructive criticism.


Good luck to all.
πŸ™we ask Allah reconcile and repayπŸ™
Comment:
BTC hit $27K today, which makes bulls take a real step toward the bullish scenario we explained above.
Save some time to review the above details. If there are any questions, do not hesitate to ask

Good luck to all.
πŸ™we ask Allah reconcile and repayπŸ™
Comment:
In the first month of Q2 2023, BTC achieved $30K, indicating its adherence to the previously discussed we explained about Bullish/Bearish trend in January.

Currently, the range of 34/38K, with potential to reach $40K, may act as a reversal zone for BTC, with a retracement to 25/20K likely during Q3/Q4 towards the end of the year. This could potentially lead to an altcoin season before the retracement starts.

It's worth noting that this view on a retracement to 25/21K could be invalidated if BTC achieves a monthly close above $47K.


πŸ™we ask Allah reconcile and repayπŸ™
Comment:
#BTC Analysis Update:

Key Points:

#BTC has concluded its upward movement, reaching the 46K range we predicted since April 2023, coinciding with the anticipated Alt season in Q4 of 2023, as mentioned in the last update. The missed part we were expecting was BTC to retrace during Q3/Q4, which did not happen. This was likely influenced by EFT news, pushing prices upward. In the overall picture, BTC followed our analysis closely and reached the upper range of around 46K , which we initially set around $49K!

Analytical Insights:
- Market Dynamics: BTC experienced upward movements, partly influenced by external factors like ETF news.
- Upcoming Phase: The current performance suggests the potential for a correction phase.
- Support Levels: Key support zones to watch include $38K, 36K , and $30K.

Near-Term Scenarios:
- Correction Phase: A healthy retracement to $38K- 36K could be expected If the Breakdown Signal is confirmed by a weekly close below $40,500 might indicate a shift in market sentiment.

Longer-Term Outlook:
- Bulls' Power: The focus remains on how well Bulls can maintain BTC above key support levels especially $30-28K.
- Potential Scenario: If BTC holds above $30K, it could signify strength for future upward movements if not this will be a sign and confirm for correction to $25K.so take it step by step.

Risk Management:
- Stay informed about market developments.
- Use stop-loss orders to manage risks effectively.
- Adjust strategies based on changing market conditions.
Note: Cryptocurrency markets are dynamic, and it's crucial to adapt strategies based on the evolving landscape. Trade responsibly. πŸ“Šβœ¨πŸ“‰

πŸ™we ask Allah reconcile and repayπŸ™
Comment:
#BTC
As of now, the strategy is to wait for a breakdown below $43,500, followed by $40,500 If this is confirmed the potential reaching $36-34-30K will be increased. If the market holds around $30K, this could signal the last correction before a bullish run to $70-120-180K.

However, if the market dumps below 25K , then a discussion about levels around $18-10K might come into play again.

The key focus at the moment is on the performance around the $43,500-40,500 range.

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