Before going to details I wanna talk abit about how supply and demand works any market. There are shortterm and longterm trader in different timeframe. Market price is made up by these shortterm and longterm forces. You need to recognize the recent market movement is caused by shortterm or longterm traders. Make it simple:
- Supply > demand: basically, market goes down as more people believes it will go down so they short them down to the ground. When I said people, we need to identify if they are shortterm/longterm trader. To break down below strong support at 6000, it will need short position increase strongly at 6000s, not short position as high as 7000s or 8000s, it means that these short positions are already in play, could not have enough fuels to drive down the price
- Demand > supply: when price comes to area where supply drains out, demand will take back its control. And apparently 6000s is where longterm trader could be looking at, they will probably look at 5000s, 3000s and 1000s as well
Novice trader: price is testing 6k again, we need to short it, huge opportunity to short and take profit at 5000s
Skilled trader: price is testing 6k again, we need to see how it will accumulate and if any large interest players come to buy the fuck up. And this was the case indeed.
Here are some takeaways and the last 6000 test:
- Short margin at ATH on bitfinex: Obviously these are shotterm peeps --> shortterm forces is running out at 6000s, not enough fuels to drive the price down
- Large interest players limit buy at low price: Remember, these are peeps who dont care if the price could go down to 3k or 1k because they always have money to buy more to increase their bag
- There was a long wick candle testing 5800, this was obviously the large interest player testing supply and demand of the market at this accumulation price, so after this point, strong beliefs that we gonna head higher, and it did.
--> so it's obvious that shortterm traders run out of steam and longterm traders take place and this was accumulation period (you could look it up Wyckoff accumulation)
I dont use PF because I dont like it. As you could see on my chart, the middle line magically has been touched and retouched overtime. So with this perspective my shortterm and longterm view would be:
Shortterm view probability:
- 20% will test 7300 - 7400
- 50% will test 8000
- 30% will test 9500 - 10000
Longterm view probability (also taking some consideration on recent development and bitcoin adoption rate e.g CBOE backed ETF, ICE Bitcoin physical future delivery...) :
- 20% we reached the bottom at 6000
- 10% will test 5000 - 5200
- 60% will test 3000 - 3500
- 10% will test 1500 - 2500
Happy trading everyone.
- Supply > demand: basically, market goes down as more people believes it will go down so they short them down to the ground. When I said people, we need to identify if they are shortterm/longterm trader. To break down below strong support at 6000, it will need short position increase strongly at 6000s, not short position as high as 7000s or 8000s, it means that these short positions are already in play, could not have enough fuels to drive down the price
- Demand > supply: when price comes to area where supply drains out, demand will take back its control. And apparently 6000s is where longterm trader could be looking at, they will probably look at 5000s, 3000s and 1000s as well
Novice trader: price is testing 6k again, we need to short it, huge opportunity to short and take profit at 5000s
Skilled trader: price is testing 6k again, we need to see how it will accumulate and if any large interest players come to buy the fuck up. And this was the case indeed.
Here are some takeaways and the last 6000 test:
- Short margin at ATH on bitfinex: Obviously these are shotterm peeps --> shortterm forces is running out at 6000s, not enough fuels to drive the price down
- Large interest players limit buy at low price: Remember, these are peeps who dont care if the price could go down to 3k or 1k because they always have money to buy more to increase their bag
- There was a long wick candle testing 5800, this was obviously the large interest player testing supply and demand of the market at this accumulation price, so after this point, strong beliefs that we gonna head higher, and it did.
--> so it's obvious that shortterm traders run out of steam and longterm traders take place and this was accumulation period (you could look it up Wyckoff accumulation)
I dont use PF because I dont like it. As you could see on my chart, the middle line magically has been touched and retouched overtime. So with this perspective my shortterm and longterm view would be:
Shortterm view probability:
- 20% will test 7300 - 7400
- 50% will test 8000
- 30% will test 9500 - 10000
Longterm view probability (also taking some consideration on recent development and bitcoin adoption rate e.g CBOE backed ETF, ICE Bitcoin physical future delivery...) :
- 20% we reached the bottom at 6000
- 10% will test 5000 - 5200
- 60% will test 3000 - 3500
- 10% will test 1500 - 2500
Happy trading everyone.