1. Bitcoin is running into MAJOR resistance, while being overbought, showing divergences on many indicators, and flashing a red sell signal on the NVT .
2. Bitcoin is now well above the weekly 50 MA (in black.) However, this is kind of meaningless until we see a weekly candle actually close above the 50 MA. Bitcoin could easily fall back below the weekly 50 MA, and close the weekly candle below it. HOWEVER, if we do see a weekly candle close above the 50 , that's actually a long-term buy signal, despite the fact that we are right here below major resistance.
3. THIS IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND*** I have readjusted the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace, since the high from April 23rd was surpassed. As you can see, the 61.8% retrace is now RIGHT on the peaks from December, January, and February. That tells me that this is probably the top. Because, if Bitcoin continues to rally significantly higher, it would also raise the 61.8% retrace.
As an experiment, I raised the top of the retrace to the 6817 level, which pretty much represents the top of the major overhead . If Bitcoin were able to rally all the way up to there, it would raise the 61.8% fib into an insignificant area, but the 78.6 would then be in the inverted range (December to March.) That would result in a retrace setup that is less beautiful (so to speak) on the chart. I think the way the fib looks right now, is actually perfect, because the 61.8% retrace is catching all of the peaks from December to January. In other words, it makes the most sense, that this could be the top.
However, it's hard to call the top when the market starts to break out like this. Now that BTC has broken out above the head of this potential pattern, and broken out above the weekly 50 (in black) it's hard to call. I still think the upside is extremely limited, and that a major pullback is coming in the near future. Just look to the left on the chart. You can see how long it took for BTC to break through the 6000 range support. Now, that range is resistance, and it's likely to reject Bitcoin multiple times over, before we actually surpass it.
I'm sure many of you are wondering what's up with the call. Well, technically a is invalidated if price action in the right shoulder rises above the head. However, I have seen many patterns that played out perfectly, with right shoulders higher than the head. I don't care what you read in books, there isn't a perfect symmetry that a has to have, to be classified as a . It simply has to consist of three peaks, with a clearly defined neckline support, which is later broken. That's it. I'm not concerned with the height of the peaks or the symmetry or any of that. I'm not saying that this is definitely a formation, but I'm watching it closely, in case it develops as one.
For example, look at the inverted at the bottom of the screen. The left shoulder is the deepest trough. The head is the second deepest, and the right shoulder is the shallowest trough. However, it played out perfectly well as an inverted pattern. Recognizing that, was one of the key things that helped me make the call that we were going to breakout to 5300, just before it happened. This current pattern could end up being similar, just to the downside instead.
On the four hour chart, I know that BTC has clearly been in an . The current candle has touched the top of the on the four hour chart, so that is added resistance as well.
In summary, people can say what they want and do what they want with their own investments. Personally, I don't like to buy ANYTHING into major resistance and sell signals. It's counter intuitive to being a technical analyst. When sell signals are all around, and markets are running into major resistance, that's generally when I take profits and look for the exits.
The is declining. There's a divergence on the . The is back in overbought territory. There's a sell signal on the NVT . I could go on. Those are not conditions that I like to buy into.
Good luck trading everyone!
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
"the probabilities of a typical H&S setup remain higher" - I agree.