Above you can find my long term outlook on BTCUSD trading pair. Still in my opinion the most import one in cryptoland.
I'm making use of 2 very basic indicators (200 MA and fibonacci):
- 200 MA is a key indicator to determine the overall long-term trend.
- Fibonacci levels can be used to indicate key levels.
- I assume the current linear decreasing 200 MA trend will continue.
- Crossover between 200MA (estimated) trendlineand and the 100% fib retrace line from 200MA top, would be the 200 MA bottom and trend- turningpoint (2014 findings).
- Before a new bullrun starts, a horizontal movement is needed (accumulation). Based on 2014 data this range goes +-15% up and down from the 200MA bottom. This zone is marked with quick dropouts that are immediately bought up. This would Indicate (temporary) lows around 3K.
- So far the 61,8% fibonacci level from the 200 MA has served as heavy support. Every (piece of) BTC you had bought under this line could be sold at a profit at our near the 200 MA line.
- So far we hadn't an extensive parabolic sell-off during the 2018 bear market except the one at the 20k top. During the 2014 bear market I see 3-4 such events.
- The estimated 200MA bottom, based on the above assumptions is around 4000 - 4100 USD. This is also a very strong level of support that was build during the July - October 2017 period.
- This implies a trading range between 3400 - 4000 - 4600 USD for a relative long period of time where the accumulation phase will happen.
Keep in mind this is an attempt to predict the 200MA bottom. It's very likely that we see lower prices than 4000 - 4100 USD. As this theory suggests: potential sell-offs below 3400 are bought up very quickly and are bringing the price back in the 3400 - 4000 - 4600 USD .
Shortcomings of this thesis:
- No-one can predict when a MA trend will change although with close monitoring one should be able to notice any changes in the overall 200 MA trend.
- The steepness of the 200MA curve can still change based on future events. Resulting in a shorter or longer bear market.
- Very Empirical analysis.
- Future events that may cause a forced (parabolic) sell-off are not know yet our at least not too the general public.
I'm looking forward to your feedback!
This analysis is based on the same principles as the one I did with BTCUSD.
The current BTCUSD price is a very unlikely bottom formation pattern.
Below I've updated my idea based on the weekly chart.
3000USD looks the longer the more a realistic target.
1. I copied the length of the downward 200MA trend.
2. The slope of a 200MA is moreover linear.
I applied these 2 elements on the 2018 graph.
the cross between 100% fib retrace and the estimated trendline would indicate the 200MA bottom.
The hardest thing is to estimate the 200MA trendline as I mentioned in my post...
hopefully this helps,