Bavo_De_Bondt
Short

BTCUSD long term trend a 2014 comparison (200 MA and fibonacci)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello All,

Above you can find my long term outlook on BTCUSD trading pair. Still in my opinion the most import one in cryptoland.

I'm making use of 2 very basic indicators (200 MA and fibonacci):

- 200 MA is a key indicator to determine the overall long-term trend.
- Fibonacci levels can be used to indicate key support and resistance levels.
- I assume the current linear decreasing 200 MA trend will continue.
- Crossover between 200MA (estimated) trendlineand and the 100% fib retrace line from 200MA top, would be the 200 MA bottom and trend- turningpoint (2014 findings).

- Before a new bullrun starts, a horizontal movement is needed (accumulation). Based on 2014 data this range goes +-15% up and down from the 200MA bottom. This zone is marked with quick dropouts that are immediately bought up. This would Indicate (temporary) lows around 3K.
- So far the 61,8% fibonacci level from the 200 MA has served as heavy support. Every (piece of) BTC you had bought under this line could be sold at a profit at our near the 200 MA line.
- So far we hadn't an extensive parabolic sell-off during the 2018 bear market except the one at the 20k top. During the 2014 bear market I see 3-4 such events.
- The estimated 200MA bottom, based on the above assumptions is around 4000 - 4100 USD. This is also a very strong level of support that was build during the July - October 2017 period.
- This implies a trading range between 3400 - 4000 - 4600 USD for a relative long period of time where the accumulation phase will happen.


Final Words:
Keep in mind this is an attempt to predict the 200MA bottom. It's very likely that we see lower prices than 4000 - 4100 USD. As this theory suggests: potential sell-offs below 3400 are bought up very quickly and are bringing the price back in the 3400 - 4000 - 4600 USD price channel .



Shortcomings of this thesis:
- No-one can predict when a MA trend will change although with close monitoring one should be able to notice any changes in the overall 200 MA trend.
- The steepness of the 200MA curve can still change based on future events. Resulting in a shorter or longer bear market.
- Very Empirical analysis.
- Future events that may cause a forced (parabolic) sell-off are not know yet our at least not too the general public.

I'm looking forward to your feedback!

Regards,
Bavo
Comment: I'm trying to analyse several bottom formations of different asset classes in order to find key take-aways that could be useful for the BTCUSD bottom formation.
This analysis is based on the same principles as the one I did with BTCUSD.



Comment: http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-si... This graph helps to identify an overall marketvaluation on a relative fashion. my interpretation: btc is relatively seen almost as overvaluated now as it was at 20K. everytime it tops out, a parabolic selloff occurs.... this indicator can be seen as a leading one where MA's are moreover seen as lagging variables.
Comment: Below you find my analysis regarding the DowJones 2008 financial crisis. Based on the same principles (200MA and fibonacci retracement) that I used for BTCUSD, Nikkei and Gold.

The current BTCUSD price is a very unlikely bottom formation pattern.

Comment: Bitcoin broke significantly the 6k support.
Below I've updated my idea based on the weekly chart.
3000USD looks the longer the more a realistic target.

Good one, I think for a good bull run BTC needs to get down to your ranges.... I am more scared that sell off is starting on large indices and how BTC will handle it?
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Bavo_De_Bondt klavdij.kralj
@klavdij.kralj, the large indices are not giving positive signals neither. I do expect an crypto related crash in order to send us towards the lower values indicated on my graph. Tether is a serious treat although the dollar parity is brought back to up, but not (yet) to 1$. The circulating supply of tether decreased by approx 700M from and ATH of approx 2 800M (= 25% lost in value). Although I don't see a sustainable solution offered toward the crypto community for now...
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55555+
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can u explain how you set the fibo there? thanks
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Bull-Bear-Unicorn Bull-Bear-Unicorn
i mean the upper one. dont understand the logic behind. thanks mate
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Bavo_De_Bondt Bull-Bear-Unicorn
@Bull-Bear-Unicorn, I estimated the 200MA trend based on the 200MA from 2014.
1. I copied the length of the downward 200MA trend.
2. The slope of a 200MA is moreover linear.

I applied these 2 elements on the 2018 graph.
the cross between 100% fib retrace and the estimated trendline would indicate the 200MA bottom.

The hardest thing is to estimate the 200MA trendline as I mentioned in my post...

hopefully this helps,

Bavo
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Bull-Bear-Unicorn Bavo_De_Bondt
@Bavo_De_Bondt, not really. your fibonacci doenst make any sense to me. a fibonacci is measuring a move with momentum from the beginning to the end. your one doesnt make sense. no experienced trader would use the fibonacci to copy an estimated move from the past. sorry to say...
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http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-signal/ This graph helps to identify an overall marketvaluation on a relative fashion. my interpretation: btc is relatively seen almost as overvaluated now as it was at 20K. everytime it tops out, a parabolic selloff occurs.... this indicator can be seen as a leading one where MA's are moreover seen as lagging variables.
Reply
are you sure we still have the chance to go to $3000? so, you only compare it with 2014? the market and situation is totally different from 2014, I think. The chart won't mimic the previous one, I guess, any comment?
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