day0

short-run decrease - long-term increase

Short
day0 Updated   
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTC is likely to decline over the next 12 months. However, after an estimate 2022-09-11 date, it is very likely to being increasing based off off the extended long-run historical data and trend.
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BTC is currently in the decline
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BTC & TOTAL Market Cap may double from 2021-10-31 to 2022-02-31
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BTC may remain around 63.6k within 33 days; based off of the: 30m view; EMA ribbon.
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BTC 103k by 2022-01-24 on the 3h view

BTC may see 103k by 2022-01-24. This is the 3h view; followed by a short decrease period (around 2022-02-15 or 2022-03-27 or 2022-04-20) of up to 19% after peaking.

Today is March 26, 2021 on the November 20, 2021 trend (see next two charts below).

On the chart below, BTC is measured in USDT & the "ZEC+ZEN+TRX+ETC" is measured in BTC.

2020-12-28 to 2021-12-23; View: "D". TOTAL (1,2,4) + BTCUSD + ETHUSD + ETHBTC

2020-12-28 to 2022-01-01; View: "D".
TOTAL (1,2,4) + BTCUSD + ETHUSD + ETHBTC + ETCBTC + TRXBTC + ZECBTC + ZENBTC + XLMBTC + JSTBTC + XEMBTC
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TOTAL & T5YIE (2020-01 to 2022-01)
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This may be a perfect forecast of BTC 3-hour (2021-05 to 2022-02) 103k by 2022-02-02.
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Deflation slowing BTC purchases (NOV 8th (weekly data) ); leading to a decline in BTC prices.
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BTC log 4-hour view 2021-12-15 to 2022-03-15; increase to $76k to $86k around 2022-03-15, then decrease during late March, April, & May 2022 to around $43k to $53k.
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This is a more conservative & much slower rate of increase BTC 2022 Q1, log view, daily, forecast.
2022 Q1 BTCUSD Forecast, log view, daily. $46k 2022-01-13; $56k 2022-01-16; $53k 2022-01-24; $66k 2022-02-16; $69k 2022-03-03; $53k 2022-04-04
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BTCUSD monthly average: 2022-01 $52666 & 2022-02 $51555
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2022-08 chart still on target
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BTC possible longer bottom (ending DEC 2022) & 2023 increase
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This forecast was created 6 months 'prior' to the WW3 or WW4 situation (or however one would like to reference & title it). So it's possible that things might shift differently than if there were no wars at all. However, I'm going to keep the same forecast for the current time.
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It is very possible that the longer flatter bottom can be extended until 2023-03-22. The unlikely and very latest that the bottom may occur is estimated to be 2023-09-19. However, it's never a good idea to "wait until the last minute" either. Between 2022-11-11 and 2023-09-09, it is also possible that here may be a "flash crash" that dips neat 9.8k; however it would be a very short duration to confirm the ultra lowest point possible for this halving cycle; meaning war or climate or viruses may cause a temporarily generated flash bottom like there was in 2020-03 (depending on what expected challenges and variables occur over the next 12 months).
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As WW3 escalates (as expected by most analysts), 2023 may experience a "longer flatter bottom" as well with a possible flash crash bottom before 2023-10. If WW3 did not escalate as much, then this forecast would be more precise for 2022 and 2023. However, this forecast clearly hints to an increase in 2023, but does not say which quarter of 2023. This was intentional with the "known uncertainty" for the Q1 2023 start of the next official recession.

So if the official announcement of the recession is announced on 2023-01-06 then, BTC will fall from 2023-01 to 2023-03.

The very latest that day0 predictive analysis is forecasting the TOTAL & BTC very bottom is near or during 2023-09. However, this is without WW3 escalating too far into the interconnected blockchain markets; in terms of market price.
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Reminder: Diesel fuel expect to run out on 2022-11-19 in US & Europe. Perhaps, this shortage maybe felt at the diesel pumps around 2022-12-12. Check news & energy departments for updates.
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2023 Q1 & Q2 bear. Q3 (flat) & Q4 slightly bull. mostly as recession risks increase along with WW3/WW4 activities.
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Still on a relatively flat, then downward trend:
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