I had a bit of a break from crypto and charts generally. I've been spending a lot of time in the charts this year.
My thesis for shorting crypto was partly centred around regression and I think this bear market is the first where regression has been broken. If you are a very skilled technician I'm sure you can find a way to show how regression has not been broken and how an upside move can form without first a capitulation, but either way for me that adds a layer of complexity that signaled it was time to take some days off.
And the 24 hour market waits for no-one so where are we now and what is going on.
Well firstly the regressive fractals I covered in previous threads eventually formed a domed bottom. And within that doming a bullish impulse formed within a bearish continuation pattern and I've circled those impulses on the chart.
I was correct on my "Fresh Look" thread. The warning was there as the tenet of Neowave states - "The fastest move dictates the (dominant) trend." And that was true here. But with consecutive fibs and past history of regression I got faked out of my position, to no great loss other than losing my footing and also my interest.
So you probably don't need me to tell you but Bitcoin is looking very bearish right here. These clumsy domed shapes look ready to fall at any moment. The death cross is about to form and crypto is done for this season. But hopefully it will be back.
I'm personally not too bothered about shorting this market now. Price is drifting in no-man's land, mid range, and I'm quite fussy, I don't like buying and hodl-shorting.
Price reached 41K and although it looks like it may be done right here, I will be surprised if 41K is the top simply because there are no landmarks - fib or resistance; its in open water. For that reason I would not be surprised if price moves back up and tags SOW - very much similar to a textbook H&S re-test and rejection. I'm not saying it will happen but if it does it will be a great RR short imo.
Trend based fib time - 2.618 is still sitting on the time horizon. At the start of this flat move it seemed unlikely price would get there, but now after some complexity it looks on perhaps.
DXY having a sudden and very strong rally is also adding another complication and we'll have to see if it backs down next week.
On a side note I may not cover alts so much until next bull run. This is simply because I'm no longer trading them as I no longer use crypto exchanges. I prefer to trade COIN on the stock exchange from herein if I will at all. I may just wait for next bull run to go long - we'll see.
Not advice.
My thesis for shorting crypto was partly centred around regression and I think this bear market is the first where regression has been broken. If you are a very skilled technician I'm sure you can find a way to show how regression has not been broken and how an upside move can form without first a capitulation, but either way for me that adds a layer of complexity that signaled it was time to take some days off.
And the 24 hour market waits for no-one so where are we now and what is going on.
Well firstly the regressive fractals I covered in previous threads eventually formed a domed bottom. And within that doming a bullish impulse formed within a bearish continuation pattern and I've circled those impulses on the chart.
I was correct on my "Fresh Look" thread. The warning was there as the tenet of Neowave states - "The fastest move dictates the (dominant) trend." And that was true here. But with consecutive fibs and past history of regression I got faked out of my position, to no great loss other than losing my footing and also my interest.
So you probably don't need me to tell you but Bitcoin is looking very bearish right here. These clumsy domed shapes look ready to fall at any moment. The death cross is about to form and crypto is done for this season. But hopefully it will be back.
I'm personally not too bothered about shorting this market now. Price is drifting in no-man's land, mid range, and I'm quite fussy, I don't like buying and hodl-shorting.
Price reached 41K and although it looks like it may be done right here, I will be surprised if 41K is the top simply because there are no landmarks - fib or resistance; its in open water. For that reason I would not be surprised if price moves back up and tags SOW - very much similar to a textbook H&S re-test and rejection. I'm not saying it will happen but if it does it will be a great RR short imo.
Trend based fib time - 2.618 is still sitting on the time horizon. At the start of this flat move it seemed unlikely price would get there, but now after some complexity it looks on perhaps.
DXY having a sudden and very strong rally is also adding another complication and we'll have to see if it backs down next week.
On a side note I may not cover alts so much until next bull run. This is simply because I'm no longer trading them as I no longer use crypto exchanges. I prefer to trade COIN on the stock exchange from herein if I will at all. I may just wait for next bull run to go long - we'll see.
Not advice.
Comment:
Well this is looking very bearish. I'll be looking for a small bounce to re-enter, maybe we'll see one of those tired leaning bounces towards 2.618 fib time.
Comment:
Waiting for a bounce can be a bit like waiting for a bus. Looks like this one got stuck in traffic somewhere.
Telegram Trading Group 🧐
Priority trades, round the clock updates and a 1 hour technical video per week 😼.
Get the "heads up" at critical moments - don't lose your shirt.
$50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
Priority trades, round the clock updates and a 1 hour technical video per week 😼.
Get the "heads up" at critical moments - don't lose your shirt.
$50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
