The_black_swan

Looking for a mid-term bottom

Short
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The idea behind this prediction is that we may overshoot downward, the same way we overshot in Feb, before ranging.
Such an overshoot and a panic sell would be a great opportunity for a mid term buy, the same way that it was a great buy in Feb at 6k.
If this happens we need to see high volume like shown by the arrow. Again, if possible, as much as in Feb.
However, it was much easier to predict the overall crash in Oct-Nov, than it is now to predict the price action in such a volatile environment.
When we will have found the mid-term bottom, then I think it will be easier to make predictions.
So, take home message: be prudent volatility is back, and take this prediction simply as one suggestion.

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Now a little note on a project called aXpire:
To introduce it, I will simply quote the introduction of the whitepaper:
"Our vision is simple. Businesses waste money; we help reduce waste and improve profitability. In more detail, we enable seamless spend management, in real time, through secure blockchain technology and machine learning. The latter technology enables our clients to make incrementally intelligent invoicing decisions through a growing reference SQL database of approved and denied transactions. We succeed as our clients succeed through the use of our end-to-end internal spend management software."
"Axpire is a cloud-based, and AI-enabled blockchain payment processing company. We are a real company, with real revenues. Our business is a spin-off from LSG , LLC, an insurtech SaaS company that has a history of working with Fortune 500 and “household name” clients, such as Nike , Coca Cola and the NFL . We were founded in January 2017, and are headquartered in Manhattan, New York, with employees in London, India, and Australia. Our object-oriented core technology was developed at the request of our first client -- one of the largest hedge funds in the world ( AUM = $24Bn+) -- to enable the real-time visualization and management of payment processing work flows across legal, fund accounting, administration, governance and compliance departments. Given the proactive demand of clients, our core team focuses the majority of its time on developing aXpire’s core applications, and sharing the Company’s capabilities with prospective customers through live and web-enabled demonstrations."

Where I see the potential:
- very low market cap of 4M$, and potential cap of X00M$+ within a few years
- 70 % coins in circulations, so no significant dilution to come, plus the team don't own too many
- the team is not a fancy "will revolutionize the world", but rather a down to earth, we will upgrade our already working business using a token ecosystem
- they already proved themselves as entrepreneurs, AND, very important, also as a team by working together within the previous company ( LSG LLC)
- impressive advisory board for such a small market cap (Roget Ver, Mike Tokay), and partners (R3: Corda platform, Microsoft: PowerBI tool)
- the tokenomic is sound, and the advantages of blockchain for auditability and seamlessness is clear, though, maybe a little ahead of the market

The risks:
- First of, the team might fail in their attempt to get many customers onto Resolvr, or be beaten by strong competitors
- I am not familiar with spend management, so I am less able to be critic on the product itself, and this is a risk in itself to consider (for myself at least)
- and last but not least! The company might succeed, while the token price does not do much
Let me now develop this point, which is key in the crypto economy to come.

This is how I see it, I'm not an expert, so feel free to correct me.
Axpire is a utility token, like so many out there, and there is zero formal bound between the token price and the revenues of the company. You might say, yeah... but there will be supply and demand forces! So if the company is successful, so will be the token, right! Might be! Or, might not... because a utility token is NOT a share. And you don't want to invest on the hope that it will be "kinda the same", right? When you buy shares of a company, or when they give you dividends, there is a direct link with the company revenues, so that you're not in the dark in terms of pricing the share. The same way, you don't want to be in the dark for pricing the tokens you're investing in.

Imagine, in 2019 you're betting on a new project using a utility token, you buy low, you're patient and all, and you had a good intuition: in 2022 your project grew 20X in terms of cash flow, employees, etc... BUT... your token only made 2X meanwhile. I guess you'll feel pretty lame, even more than you were right about the team and the project's potential. There are so few opportunities in life to make 20X or 100X on an investment, and you miss it. So what did you miss exactly? You missed the tokenomic.

Why are these kind of things written in so many whitepapers:
"We hope to **minimize speculative** value and **maximize utility** value as more data is fed into the Resolvr platform" (here I quote axpr lightpaper).
I'm sure many retail speculators/investors, when they read this (if they do), they think, hehe, they just want to minimize speculation, whatever! (we're smarter) we know that speculation will happen anyway, and a token is kinda like a share, or these kind of thoughts. Yeah if you're a skilled trader, there will be speculation and some juicy moves up and down, but if you're a long term investors and people tell you "just hodl, be patient, and you'll do great", then I suggest you read again this warring above, and study tokenomic, a little bit at least. Hopefully, this note already will be useful.

So, the way I see it, is that you need as much direct links as possible, between the token market and the company's cash flow.
The stronger their relation, the better you can price the token, and to some extent, the higher the token's potential price.
For exemple, and beside the fact that users need the tokens to access the platform:
- axpire has a feature where the fees paid by the clients on the platform is burnt, creating scarcity, instead of being pocketed by the team.
This give an important value to the ecosystem and token, and this is a direct relation between AXPR and cash flow.
Basically the business is strongly betting their revenues in their own token.
- on the other hand, aside of their software (SaaS), they provide consultancy services that are paid in USD, like a normal business, and not in AXPR.
This is bad for the token price because there is some cash flowing outside of the AXPR ecosystem, taking away value from it.
So kind of decreasing the potential market cap.

So, there seem to be a rather strong but not complete relationship between Axpire cashflow and AXPR. This plus the team, their experience, their advisors and partners, their existing business and clients, make me quite bullish on the long term for this token. But this is a startup, and you know the story.

Overall, tokenomics is a new and very interesting topic, and I am definitely no expert in it. But one thing is certain, and this is my message here, you must understand the underlying 'value proposition of the token', and not simply the potential value of the project.
Feel free to comment about axpr, tokenomics, etc... I think I'll write a note on another project at some point.

Cheers!

Comments

AXPR does not look so serious, they released matchBX which is totally weird on a strategic point of view, as they have absolutely NO skills or expertise in this field (launching an online product needs STRONG online marketing skills, which they absolutely dont have since they come from corporate IT field -- seeling an IT solution to SMEs or big business).

This move (launching matchBX) truly revealed how naive the team is regarding their strategy and how hard it is to succesfully launch and develop an online business.
+1 Reply
@PaulMir, You're right, the launch of this second platform, Matchbox, is strange, or maybe just too ambitious.

However, the point of this post was also to speak about the importance of thinking about the tokenomics, through an example, rather than just chilling axpr.
Reply
The key thing is whether the feed on the platform MUST or MAY be paid in AXPR. Once the token can be avoided, it's use-case is questionable. I like AXPR vision, but I haven't studied the project much.
+1 Reply
tt1315999 tt1315999
@tt1315999, *fees
Reply
@tt1315999, You're right, and the answer is that it MUST be paid in AXPR. So this is good for the price long term, but as I mention, their consultancy services will be in USD, which is not great. But this is just a side business, so I think its fine overall.
Reply
Thanks for the great analysis and I do agree with the potential drop from a technical standpoint
+1 Reply
When analyzing the BTC/XAU ratio, I noticed that the Bitcoin price is very likely set to reach 0.5 BTC per ounce of gold around the end of May. In my opinion, this trend is more evident on the Gold (BTC/XAU) chart than on the "classic" BTC/USD chart. Check out my recent idea for more details
Reply
Some may want to read my new idea
Reply
I think we're about to slump to $ 2.5k
Reply
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