A BTC Signal With 100% Accuracy For Your Viewing Pleasure...
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Looking at the daily chart , we can see that BTC has smashed through the pivot high resistance level at 17115 (yellow trendline) like it didn't even exist. While BTC is currently showing no signs of slowing, the parabolic nature of this rally has me anticipating a pullback. With that said, a pullback is technically not guaranteed. In fact, if you look back at previous instances where BTC took out old all time highs, there are several examples where BTC continued a meteoric rise, without pulling back much at all. So, we can't forget the extreme performance of this asset, especially when it was in similar technical situations. Let's look at a few things to assess where a pullback could occur, and why BTC appears to be due for one.
Firstly, we'll start with the Gaussian Channel, which is the green and red band on the chart. As you can see, when the price of BTC gets far away from the band, especially in extreme conditions, there is a high probability that it will return to (or near) the band. This has been especially true during the past few years. I've highlighted some of the most extreme separations between the price of BTC and the Gaussian Channel with pink circles. As you can see, on every occasion there was extreme separation, BTC quickly returned to the band.
Additionally, each time there was extreme separation between price and the Gaussian channel, there was also an extreme reading on the NVT . Now, the NVT has historically been pretty accurate in identifying impending tops and bottoms, but it hasn't been perfect. For example, if you look at the NVT reading from April 2019, it was in the red, but a massive rally still ensued. What I've realized though, is that when you couple extreme readings on the NVT with parabolic moves on the chart, it is 100% accurate — at least as far back as 2017 (I haven't checked further back.)
So, we can see that an extreme NVT reading coupled with a parabolic move in price results in a reversal with 100% accuracy since 2017, possibly even further back. Looking at the current price action, we can see that it is absolutely parabolic, and there is also an extreme reading on the NVT . So, there is reason to believe, based on this analysis, that we will see a pullback very soon. If it happens, I think it could probably take us down to the Gaussian Channel, or somewhere close to it. In fact, that green trendline at 13800 looks like a likely target, as it was never tested for support, and it is close to the Gaussian Channel.
Friends, I want you to remember this. BTC is a raging animal right now. If this thing breaks out to new all time highs, we could see massive fomo into the crypto market. As soon as BTC breaks all time highs, it will be all over the news, people will be talking about how it's will moon to infinity dollars, and everyone and their dog will want some crypto.
While reason tells me that a pullback is near, the potential for panic mania tells me that it could be very short lived, if it presents itself at all. Now, while a lot of people think BTC is likely to break free in the near future, we also must consider the other possibility — a double top rejection. It's also possible that BTC could be strongly rejected near the all time high of 19797, resulting in a double top on the chart. If that happens, we will have to assess BTC's ability to recover when the time comes. Double tops can actually be very negative, as they can solidify a seemingly impenetrable ceiling for price. History tells us that BTC doesn't know what a double top is. =D We need to physically see the performance around the ATH to know for sure. Until then, just know that the technicals are suggesting a correction of some sort, but it may be short lived.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Firstly, we'll start with the Gaussian Channel, which is the green and red band on the chart. As you can see, when the price of BTC gets far away from the band, especially in extreme conditions, there is a high probability that it will return to (or near) the band. This has been especially true during the past few years. I've highlighted some of the most extreme separations between the price of BTC and the Gaussian Channel with pink circles. As you can see, on every occasion there was extreme separation, BTC quickly returned to the band.
Additionally, each time there was extreme separation between price and the Gaussian channel, there was also an extreme reading on the NVT . Now, the NVT has historically been pretty accurate in identifying impending tops and bottoms, but it hasn't been perfect. For example, if you look at the NVT reading from April 2019, it was in the red, but a massive rally still ensued. What I've realized though, is that when you couple extreme readings on the NVT with parabolic moves on the chart, it is 100% accurate — at least as far back as 2017 (I haven't checked further back.)
So, we can see that an extreme NVT reading coupled with a parabolic move in price results in a reversal with 100% accuracy since 2017, possibly even further back. Looking at the current price action, we can see that it is absolutely parabolic, and there is also an extreme reading on the NVT . So, there is reason to believe, based on this analysis, that we will see a pullback very soon. If it happens, I think it could probably take us down to the Gaussian Channel, or somewhere close to it. In fact, that green trendline at 13800 looks like a likely target, as it was never tested for support, and it is close to the Gaussian Channel.
Friends, I want you to remember this. BTC is a raging animal right now. If this thing breaks out to new all time highs, we could see massive fomo into the crypto market. As soon as BTC breaks all time highs, it will be all over the news, people will be talking about how it's will moon to infinity dollars, and everyone and their dog will want some crypto.
While reason tells me that a pullback is near, the potential for panic mania tells me that it could be very short lived, if it presents itself at all. Now, while a lot of people think BTC is likely to break free in the near future, we also must consider the other possibility — a double top rejection. It's also possible that BTC could be strongly rejected near the all time high of 19797, resulting in a double top on the chart. If that happens, we will have to assess BTC's ability to recover when the time comes. Double tops can actually be very negative, as they can solidify a seemingly impenetrable ceiling for price. History tells us that BTC doesn't know what a double top is. =D We need to physically see the performance around the ATH to know for sure. Until then, just know that the technicals are suggesting a correction of some sort, but it may be short lived.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Comment:
Just FYI, those pink circles on the bottoms are also "Parabolic" moves. I just didn't put the tags on there.
Comment:
...Except for the one in December 2018, but you get the point.