Follow up post to:
Thank you for all your comments. They were interesting. I thought I should expand a bit on my thesis and time forecast here and also update since the original forecast of 31K holding failed.
There are a few other ways I can support the thesis with popular models of trend development and such, but the most simple way is to compare the current chart to the previous BTC crash.
When we do this we can see the daily and weekly charts are similar. And the timing of these has been reasonable accurate as a comparison to date. There are 7 bars daily bars in a BTC week and as such the bear market would be expected to last far longer on the weekly version of the pattern.
If we are entering into the second phase of this price can downtrend over multiple years and lose over 70% from where the bull trap high is.
For my thesis to be valid here we need to see rejection of the recent run. Holding of retracements and trending up would be a bad sign for the bear case.
As things are, I suspect this could be similar to the high. Where the sell signal as per classic patterns was obvious, but it made a harmonic spike out high. A modified version of the classic bull trap which seen BTC very briefly trade a new high before entering into the classic decline forecast.
The big spike recently came in a bat formation. A telling trait of a bat if the massive momentum it has but dies out into the PRZ.
If we're in a bat, this is evidenced by a strong rejection (Big harmonics often complete with news) and on the bigger timeframes this would just be a wick above.
Were this rejection to form and the classically implied bear pattern were to play out again we'd be very high in a spike out now.
Anything else, I am going to go flat and wait and see what happens. If this was a spike out, things should be easy from here on for bears and if not, there are easier trades elsewhere.
Thank you for all your comments. They were interesting. I thought I should expand a bit on my thesis and time forecast here and also update since the original forecast of 31K holding failed.
There are a few other ways I can support the thesis with popular models of trend development and such, but the most simple way is to compare the current chart to the previous BTC crash.
When we do this we can see the daily and weekly charts are similar. And the timing of these has been reasonable accurate as a comparison to date. There are 7 bars daily bars in a BTC week and as such the bear market would be expected to last far longer on the weekly version of the pattern.
If we are entering into the second phase of this price can downtrend over multiple years and lose over 70% from where the bull trap high is.
For my thesis to be valid here we need to see rejection of the recent run. Holding of retracements and trending up would be a bad sign for the bear case.
As things are, I suspect this could be similar to the high. Where the sell signal as per classic patterns was obvious, but it made a harmonic spike out high. A modified version of the classic bull trap which seen BTC very briefly trade a new high before entering into the classic decline forecast.
The big spike recently came in a bat formation. A telling trait of a bat if the massive momentum it has but dies out into the PRZ.
If we're in a bat, this is evidenced by a strong rejection (Big harmonics often complete with news) and on the bigger timeframes this would just be a wick above.
Were this rejection to form and the classically implied bear pattern were to play out again we'd be very high in a spike out now.
Anything else, I am going to go flat and wait and see what happens. If this was a spike out, things should be easy from here on for bears and if not, there are easier trades elsewhere.