BTCUSD is forming a bullish descending wedge and oscillators are extremely oversold again so I'm expecting a move back towards the $4k before a resumption of the downtrend to the $3400 region. Bitcoin found bottom support for the downtrend on 20 November so I'm expecting a move back to this trend line support at the bottom of the wedge around $3660 before a bounce to the overall downtrend resistance around $4k. This is based on a 382 fibo retracement from $3660. price should then drop back to the bottom of the trend line support to the 161.8 fibo extension at around $3400. I have a feeling there will be a strong bounce on 30 November around the CME bitcoin futures expiry but we should be ready for the relief bounce at any time. Indicators are not going to be overextended and oversold forever. Expecting a massive bounce at some point and I don't quite think that price will reach the $2900 - $3000. This would be too convenient and the market makers will probably rek the traders who are looking to buy back at sub 3200 levels. A drop below our downtrend support takes the support down to the swing lows on 20 November in which case the price will be bouncing from the support of a larger descending channel.
Good luck and happy trading!
Previous post:
Good luck and happy trading!
Previous post:
Comment:
Just realised my fib retracement should start from $3660 not $3737. The reversal target remains the same however at $4k.
Comment:
First target reached (albeit a lot quicker than I thought). Price hit the $3660 support as expected ($6357) and the $4k target was reached shortly afterwards. Good to see the return of decent volume again! The volume spike does change my perspective slightly and it looks like a bull flag may be in the process of being printed so we may have established a low for at least a few days. Difficult to say however since there may be one last bear trap before a sustainable move up towards the $4800 resistance.
Comment:
The bull flag is forming nicely and there is hidden bullish divergence on the 15 minute chart so expecting the price to retrace to 618 fib around $4200.
Comment:
As you can see we also have hidden bearish divergence on a higher time frame. I think price is going to target $4200 in the short term which coincides with our larger trendline resistance after breakout from the bull flag and then there should be a reversal for a wave down to the bottom of the overall trendline support with a new target around $3320 which is our 161.8 fib retracement from the $4200 level and the 161.8 has a higher chance of being reached during a stronger trend.
