Ok so basically Dollar Milkshake Theory + Central Bank Incompetence + Monthly PA + Sep/Oct 2018 PA = bottom not in. Oh and also a giant global debt bubble (good luck using credit or cash when this pops).
BoE bond buying will accelerate GBP collapse along with other currencies since its inflationary. Also, Fed won't pivot and will only neutralize the market up until elections are over. They will not care about UN requests and whether it crashes at this point since they don't represent you and are not held accountable. Also they would love a world where they are the buyers and lenders of last resort.
I'm predicting a $5600 bottom around April of 2023, assuming things start collapsing soon, and then from there we moon to new ATH in about 3 years to around $120,000. This is assuming debt bubble collapse which would force money to start looking for alternative paths. Crypto being the big one and it will start to be seen as a safer asset. Also, people love speculating and Millenials still have Trillions of Dollars to inherit (and they love crypto). Ultimately, these hedge funds/institutions work for these families with money.
If you draw the trendlines as I have, with log scaling, it looks like BTC is in an upward channel. It would make sense to touch the key level marked in green around $5600. This is a key level as you can see on the graph and respecting this level would legitimize the 2019 - 2021 cycle. Below this level would be another $3k retest but it just seems very unlikely accounting for where adoption is now.
Taking the trendline of the cycle from 2019 bottom to 2021 top and extrapolating it on a bottom around April 2023 actually ends up nicely touching the top of the channel. 100k will be a strong psychological barrier and therefore, it could result in a nice short squeeze and run up to the $120ks (top of channel).
This is the first time crypto has actually been in a bear market and calling bottom now around this 20k range is naive at best. Also macro is on the cusp of the typical 100 year depressive debt cycle. Don't take it from me though -- I listen to Dalio.
$10k will be a nice bounce back up to right before $20k only to be rejected for another low to my bottom target. Enjoy and may the odds be ever in your favor!
BoE bond buying will accelerate GBP collapse along with other currencies since its inflationary. Also, Fed won't pivot and will only neutralize the market up until elections are over. They will not care about UN requests and whether it crashes at this point since they don't represent you and are not held accountable. Also they would love a world where they are the buyers and lenders of last resort.
I'm predicting a $5600 bottom around April of 2023, assuming things start collapsing soon, and then from there we moon to new ATH in about 3 years to around $120,000. This is assuming debt bubble collapse which would force money to start looking for alternative paths. Crypto being the big one and it will start to be seen as a safer asset. Also, people love speculating and Millenials still have Trillions of Dollars to inherit (and they love crypto). Ultimately, these hedge funds/institutions work for these families with money.
If you draw the trendlines as I have, with log scaling, it looks like BTC is in an upward channel. It would make sense to touch the key level marked in green around $5600. This is a key level as you can see on the graph and respecting this level would legitimize the 2019 - 2021 cycle. Below this level would be another $3k retest but it just seems very unlikely accounting for where adoption is now.
Taking the trendline of the cycle from 2019 bottom to 2021 top and extrapolating it on a bottom around April 2023 actually ends up nicely touching the top of the channel. 100k will be a strong psychological barrier and therefore, it could result in a nice short squeeze and run up to the $120ks (top of channel).
This is the first time crypto has actually been in a bear market and calling bottom now around this 20k range is naive at best. Also macro is on the cusp of the typical 100 year depressive debt cycle. Don't take it from me though -- I listen to Dalio.
$10k will be a nice bounce back up to right before $20k only to be rejected for another low to my bottom target. Enjoy and may the odds be ever in your favor!
Comment:
Fed liquidity injections has ended up moving the date for the bottom target. I would push it 3-4 quarters forward as @day0 suggested in the comments.
