Bitcoin: Testing Lows Is Part Of The Process?

Bitcoin update: Price is beginning its first real test to prove if the recent rally is truly the beginning of a broader recovery, or not. The chart formation that is still developing can be the sign of the bottom that everyone has been waiting for, but it still has a ways to go in terms of proof. On the other hand, if price clears the newly projected support levels, Bitcoin could be testing 3K again quickly.

If you have been following our analysis, you should know by now that tops and bottoms take time to develop. Part of that development process is for price to generate and test new support and resistance levels. How the market chooses to deal with these levels is where trading opportunities can come from, but letting the market decide is key.

Since the move from 3150 to 4230, Bitcoin has two projected support areas of 3800 and 3450 respectively. Simply reaching a level is not enough, the question is what kind of price action appears at the level? Candle stick reversals would be one type of signal that would call our attention to another potential swing trade long.

By waiting for such a signal, you can better avoid the all too common mistake of jumping in too early, only to watch price push to new lows. Remember this market is not out of the clear as far as the short term bearish trend is concerned. Price needs to close above the 4400 area (COINBASE) to increase the probability that a bottom has been established.

Since Bitcoin has not proven that a broader recovery has taken hold just yet, we continue to maintain a strong defense. This means long signals are considered aggressive (small positions), and trade management is tight. This defensive stance is what allowed us to come away with a 192 point profit as opposed to a 240 point loss in a recent swing trade that we shared with our followers.

In summary, timing Bitcoin successfully is possible, but it will not come from following others analysis (ESPECIALLY from the majority of "experts" on here). Success begins with a particular mindset.

We receive a lot of questions from inexperienced investors asking if they have "missed" the bottom since the Bitcoin short squeeze. They ask this from a mindset of "scarcity", which is the natural human reaction and also the first step toward failure.

The fear of missing out is exactly that. And that fear often leads to expensive mistakes, large losses and empty accounts. If you want improve your performance, forget charts and oscillators, start by reshaping your thought process.

Stop chasing scarcity, and instead begin your thought process with the idea that opportunities in any financial market are infinite. What IS scarce is their frequency, but there is a very simple solution to that and it is called patience. Remember missing signals doesn't wipe out your account.

Have you missed the bottom? Buying at or near the actual bottom is a low probability game. You don't need to buy the bottom or sell the top to show a positive performance. If Bitcoin is going to sustain any significant recovery, there is a good chance it will produce more signals along the way. Signals that offer clear and attractive reward/risk. It is just a matter of having the patience to let it prove itself.

This is a game of psychology. Charts can help us measure probabilities that are based on the natural tendencies of human behavior. If you cannot interpret the psychology behind all the pretty graphics that a chart provides, then you are making decisions based on random lines.