Momentum continues until evidence appears that proves otherwise. That is the foundation of our decision making process. And there is no evidence in terms of price structure to provide a convincing argument for longs, at least over the near term.
Lower highs often lead to lower lows and the next 3K psychological support is still in play. This type of structure is particularly vulnerable to negative news or any other type of dramatic nonsense coming from this space. Which means an over reaction can take price below 3K quickly.
So what evidence would point to a more sustainable price recovery? A more obvious sign would be a break of the , followed by a higher low. A less obvious sign would be a failed low which involves price testing the 3250 low and reversing sharply. This would be a near a major . This is where we would consider an aggressive swing trade long, otherwise, there is nothing to do here but watch.
If this were any other market, I would be looking for swing trade shorts, but we do not short these markets. Waiting it out is not what most people want to hear, because most people want action. We follow a code of best practices because we are in this for the long run, not for "action". Action is what attracts gamblers, and often they are the ones who provide liquidity for those who can exercise patience.
A break of the 3350 level, and the 3250 low will most likely be tested.
In summary, Bitcoin and the entire alt space has been beaten up and is not showing any signs of a worthwhile recovery just yet. That doesn't mean it won't change. The key is to let the change happen first.
Cheap prices are tempting, but there is still plenty of room for them to get cheaper. A lot of credibility in this space has been compromised thanks to unnecessary mining conflicts, ICO scams and other negative events, but that is the nature of the environment now. All it takes is a spark of positive news like the approval of a Bitcoin and renewed optimism can return just as quickly as it left.
Timing markets is all about "IFs" and being prepared for change. Your time is better spent learning how to be flexible, learning how to interpret price action and most importantly learning how to take risks in a structured and responsible way. Chasing profits, seeking precision, or reacting instead of anticipating only keep you on the path to consistent losing. They say trading is 80% psychology and it is true. Performance starts with a mindset, not a chart. What are your best practices?
I do expect the market to drive lower, and BTC 2500 would be my next target for a scalp, with BTC 2900 or so as a target.
Just guessing really, but those levels do appear ripe for a nice scalp.
As always, love your calm, rational analysis.