For almost 2 weeks bears and bulls got frustrated with all that sideways action. When you look at a few of my older posts i have been calling for a minimum target of 7700 but my gut was saying we should go the 8K levels and maybe even the 9K levels, so people start to become bulls again. I made some long trades in these weeks, some very profitable and some much less. I still have a long position from the 6710 i opened 2 days ago after we made that strange drop from the 7200 to 76xx again.
I do have to admit, the first attempt when we reached the 7500 i knew there was a chance we could drop again, but at the second attempt when i went long at 6560 and said we could make a W (double) bottom, i was quite convinced we would go higher. So that drop we made from the 7200 straight to 66xx was a big surprise for me and it did confuse me a bit. but after i saw the price was stabilizing around 6700 i bought again, even though we were inside a . But that's because the bigger picture has more weight that the smaller time frame and i still believed my theory was the right one to follow.
This squeeze was much bigger than i anticipated of course, but the reason that happened was because the range in the 6K's took much longer and short positions were getting bigger.
For now, price is quite stable around 7550/7800. As long as we stay above the 7500ish this impulse move is still super . If we drop below that level than things could slow down. If we drop below the 7200ish than things will/could change! Chances we drop below 7000 are less than 10% for me, if we drop below the 7500ish, those odds get slightly higher.
Some of those levels you see in the chart, were levels i showed 2 weeks ago. They are not exact calculated targets, but they are resistance levels that the market will try to get at and make an attempt to break them. The first target 7700 is clearly reached already. The next target is around 8400/8300, this one won't be easy to break. The biggest challenge will the 9000/9200 resistance. Here i will probably start to build up a short position again. So long as price stays below the 9800/10.000, i will still remain long term . My early followers know i am a big bear on this market for at least this year, since i shorted BTC at the 11.600 and made several trades in between, i have been saying we NEED another move up before we make a big drop again. The market was extremely week the last few weeks, that's the main reason many people became bears. For my bigger picture plan price should stay below the 10.000/10.200, if we go above these levels i will be forced to change my game plan. But it's a long way before we get there.
Now don't get your hopes to high people, the big rally was mostly short position's getting forced to close, it could be a start for a big impulse wave, but it's not the best fundament to build a very big rally on. So don't count at high prices above 10K yet, much to soon!
For more information and if you want to learn something, read some of my previous analysis, even the old ones.
If you like what i have been doing lately, give me some likes, that's a way to say thank you :)
I have moved the stop of my position to around 7400. Because you never know guys, it was a big short covering rally, so unless real buyers are prepared to get in and start buying, there is still a small chance this could all be a trap just to shake out all the short positions. But i give that a 10% chance given that we stay above the 7500
Hello and thank you for the kind words and advice :). I know what you mean and i am always aware of certain things. Of course it's always great to be right, it's also the reason i have though about stopping to post on TradingView because it does cloud my judgement sometimes. However, i always tell people that i will determine my strategy when we get there. When we were still above 13K i was very bearish, but i never called for prices like 6K or 4K. It's just to far away and for a day trader like it has no value actually. I know it's possible that we have reached the bottom now, actually i even talked about it with some people that it is a realistic possibility. Thing is, i am a bear about this market not because of TA, not even at all. I have a million other reasons. But markets always do what they want and i know that. And i know only a small amount of money is needed to push this market way up again.
I was calling 7500/6000/4000 levels like a month ago, but i certainly did not have the strategy to go long in the 6K's and expecting a big move towards the 8K's and 9K's. I have decided that when we got here. Just like i am able to change my mind IF we reach the 9K levels. If i really start to see clear signs that the market has gotten really strong, i could change my strategy completely.
When i was shorting this market at 11.600 the last time we were there a month ago, the sentiment was extremely bullish and people were telling i was crazy,and funny thing is, many of those same people were calling me crazy that i turned into a short term bull expecting the price could maybe even reach the 9K's. And after a big pump like this unexperienced traders tend to think that THIS was it, because the move was so strong and now it was obvious that it was an accumulation phase SO that HAS to mean that this was THE low we were waiting for.
I tend to get slightly emotional when i trade the short time frames, but the bigger picture TA wise but even more FA wise, i am not emotional at all. I have a bigger picture game plan which i can adjust at any time when needed (just like these 2 weeks). And if we go to the 9K's and are able to break the 10K, i will adjust my game plan again, just like i mentioned in my analysis. I just don't believe for a second that big institutional money, is getting in this market, not for a second! The only institutional money that has entered are big players who are draining this market with there moves, exactly like they did today. There is still to much wrong with this market for serious players to invest. Not saying it WON'T happen, just saying it's much to soon IMHO.
If you look back to my older analysis, i was already a bear at the 5K to 9K ( was not only shorting it but i was a bear). I was still very new to this market, until i figured out what the game plan was of the crypto world. And i adjusted the whole view and said we could go higher and higher with the pump and dump techniques making the whole world addicted to crypto's. I am almost ready to post an educational post about this, will post it soon. I can keep going on for hours, but i am leaving it with this :)
And guys, if you think i deserve it with giving you great insights (even though i did not give away all my secrets) with how the market works and what was happening the last 2 weeks. Put me back on the nr 1 spot :) but only if you think i deserve it :)
But be aware of the nasty games from the whales, not saying its a guarantee it will happen, but just be aware
Don't stare blindly at the flag, it could change to any shape.
I might be taking a break for a few hours, so good luck trading and i will get back later today.
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