surangadesilva
Short

Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom Fishing?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I can see many people still believe that we are going inside a descending triangle . I also believed this in my idea that i shard on may 1st:

Things can change so quickly and if we didn't adapt to the changes then someone will. That's why i believe that we have to be in fast adapt mode in this market. Doesn't mean that you need to change without checking yourself. I try to find 2-3 confirmations before i change my idea on something. This includes pattern changes, trend changes etc

There are 21 corrective wave patterns in EW which is categorized into major 3 corrective wave patterns:

Zigzag (5-3-5)
Flat (3-3-5)
Triangle (3-3-3-3-3)

And other patterns are combinations of the above which is:

Double three (A combination of two corrective patterns above)
Triple three (A combination of three corrective patterns above)

So what i can see now is that we are in two double three combination corrective wave pattern:



More info here:

https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliott...

Confirmations:

1. Wave ((i)) of C is 1.6k and ((v)) is going to be completed below the triangle
2. Wave (E) of the triangle can't go beyond the triangle.
3. This has happened twice before in 2013 & 2015

Each wave got 3 subwaves (a,b &c) inside and we are in the subwave c of ((y)) of Y which is an impulsive wave.

Impulsive waves: 1,3,5,a,c
Corrective waves: 2,4,b

Normal Fibo Ratios for these waves are:

wave 2 = 0.5 - 0.8 of wave 1
wave 3 = 1.236 - 1.618 of wave 1
wave 4 = 0.5 - 0.618 of wave 3
wave 5 = 0.618 - 1 of wave 1
wave B = 0.5 - 0.8 of wave A
wave C = 0.618 - 1.236 of wave A

Now if you check what happened in subwave a of ((y)) of Y you can see that:

Wave (i) of a: 985$
Wave (ii) of a: 434$
Wave ( iii ) of a: 1207$
Wave (iv) of a: 691$ [~0.618 of Wave ( iii )]
Wave (v) of a: 950$



I have seen BTC impulsive waves fibo ratios almost the same as the previous impulsive wave fibo ratios.
Now if you apply the same for the last wave C of (E) this is what you get:

Wave ((i)) of c: 1587$
Wave ((ii)) of c = 793$
Wave (( iii )) of c = 1961$
Wave ((iv)) of c [~0.618 of Wave (( iii ))] = 1212$
Wave ((v)) of c = 1587$



Also note that Wave ((iv)) might not retrace upto 0.618 of Wave (( iii )) as everyone will be in panic mode by that time so minimum retracement would be around 0.386 of Wave (( iii )) which is around 756$ and this is why i can see it goes down to 5k level or little bit more towards 4.7k which is the lowest level of the support zone (orange dotted lines)



So 3 Possible Support lines for reversal would be

1. Blue: 5800 - 6100 (Only possible if Wave ((v)) is truncated)
2. Orange: 4700 - 5000 (This is most likely where we heading)
3. Red: 4100 - 4400 (Only possible if Wave (( iii )) is extended)







Comment: Sorry i forgot to add my disclaimer: Please note that this is purely Educational purposes only and not as Individual Investment Advice. If you choose to follow the above techniques you do so at your own risk after giving thorough and reasonable thought and consideration to your actions and their potential consequences
Comment: What is SELL WALL and how does it work ?

Here is a good article i found

https://cryptobillionaire.store/blogs/tu...

Again do your own research and dont believe these articles blindly. Thanks
Comment: Having More and more confirmations will help us to be more and more accurate.

So I have analysed all 17 BTC Cycles from Oct 2010 upto now and I can see that we had

8 Two Double Three Patterns
2 Triangle Patterns
7 Zigzag Patterns

So far all Two Double Three Patterns you can see this pattern:

Last subwave ((y)) of wave Y went below subwave ((w))
Wave Y did a minimum of 0.5 of W (Aug 2012 - July 2013)
Wave Y did a maximum of 1.382 of W (Nov 2010 - Apr 2011)

In the current Cycle If Y = 0.5 of W then Y = 4900 which is Most likely where we heading at the moment



Now lets do the Fibo Ratios of the 8 Two Double Three Patterns:

Normal Fibo Ratios of WXY is

Wave B = 50%, 61.8%, 76.4% or 85.4% of wave A
Wave C = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave A
Wave X = 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%, or 85.4% of wave W
Wave Y = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave W
Wave Y can not pass 161.8% of wave W

More info: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliott...

Please note that with Bitcoin we need to alter the normal Fibo ratios sometimes according to the history price action

Here are all the 8 Cycles with Two Double Three Patterns followed this pattern

1. Nov 2010 - Apr 2011
Y = 1.382 of W


2. Nov 2011 - Feb 2012
Y = 1 of W


3. Aug 2012 - July 2013
Y = 0.5 of W



4. Jul 2013 - Jan 2015
Y = 0.618 of W


5. Feb 2015 - Apr 2015
Y = 1.236 of W


6. Jan 2016 - July 2016
Y = 0.786 of W



7. July 2016 - Jan 2017
Y = 0.618 of W



8. Jan 2017 - ???



If Y = 0.382 of W then Y = 6500
If Y = 0.5 of W then Y = 4900 (Most likely where we heading)
If Y = 0.618 of W then Y = 3290

Most likely we are going to do 0.5 which is same as Aug 2012 - July 2013. Support Zone in this area is 4700 - 5000.






Zigzag Patterns:

1. Oct 2010 - Nov 2010
Zigzag Pattern
C = 1.0 of A


2. Apr 2011 - Nov 2011xxx
C = 0.618 of A
Zigzag Pattern



3. Feb 2012 - Aug 2012
Zigzag Pattern
C = 1.236 of A



4. Apr 2015 - Jun 2015
Zigzag Pattern
C = 1.382 of A


5. Jun 2015 - Aug 2015
Zigzag Pattern
C = 2.272 of A


6. Aug 2015 - Nov 2015
Zigzag Pattern
C = 0.618 of A


7. Nov 2015 - Jan 2016
Zigzag Pattern
C = 1.786 of A



Triangle Patterns:

1. Jan 2015 - Feb 2015
Triangle Pattern


2. Feb 2015 - Feb 2015
Triangle Pattern
Comment: Looks like BTC Finally started the scariest Wave of all ((iii)) with 2 confirmations . If BTC goes down below 7k then its fully confirmed as this is the starting point of wave ((ii))

Comment:
Comment: On the way down below 6k

Comment: Last chance for the bulls to push through this support. Break of this support will take BTC down to 5k's

@surangadesilva first of all,great job and thank you for sharing with us your knowledge! I'm curious about your vision of btc after it will complete the whole cycle of 5 waves?


Reply
@Catatd, Thanks my friend. Expect the cartel to spread the fud to the max until wave 5 end and they already have sell walls created with buy orders to fill in so that when everyone in fear they still win the game and thsts how they earn big money using little fish like us as a product.

When i analyse 6 cycles (see my previous idea) the last 5yrs since bitcoin was 12$ i can see that the average rise of bitcoin was 1000% or 10 times the begining of the cycle in 6months during the 5yrs.

If cartel dont suppress the price the from the bottom of this cycle we should go upto 50k. Hope this helps
Reply
Catatd surangadesilva
@surangadesilva, helped, thank you! But you know what I am afraid? Last year l think 80% of fresh money from market cap was from beginners who heard about Bitcoin just last year and jumped in because "stock off value " , "Bitcoin the new gold" and "technology ". This year will be different because from that 80%,70% get burnt and now everyone knows to stay away from it. I doubt this year there will be such a big number of ppl who sell their houses to jump in...
Reply
@Catatd, People forget things so quickly my friend. When btc starts another bull run after going to the bottom this cycle im pretty sure people start pumping money in the start wave 3 in the next cycle. Thats the market psychology and people gets little bit greedy when things going well again.

Guess what ? Cartel needs to have a balance of buyers and sellers for them to make profit. So they spread positive news when we going bullish and do the opposite when bearish and this helps them to create buy and sell walls to trap money from the poor people who bought coins at the top and sell at the bottom.

Hope you have seen how they create sell walls in 6 steps -

https://cryptobillionaire.store/blogs/tutorial/sell-walls-what-are-they-and-how-to-take-advantage-of-it
+2 Reply
Great analysis again. The only thing I don't understand are the number of the 5 subwaves of C (iii). Subwave i and ii are very short, but the iii is very long. So you expect a little bounce of about 6100 to 7000?
Reply
@eddje16, Wave within a wave my friend. (i) to (v) are subwaves of wave ((iii)). Subwave (iii) can be extended to 2.618 of wave (i)
Reply
@eddje16, also i dont recommend to count minuette or subminuette waves (i) to (v) just because its so unpredictable when there is pumps and dumps within that subwave so thats why i concentrate more on the fibo ratios of the waves like a,b,c and the subwaves of that only. Hope this helps
Reply
Overly bearish, in my opinion. Why ignore the $6900 support line?
Reply
@siLve_R88, This is based on the REAL facts and btc just began the wave ((iii)) and it needs to complete the whole cycle of 5 waves and that's how any market behaves.

Also all the 8 previous bitcoin cycles we had before since 2010 did the same two double three pattern we have now. In single time BTC went below the previous low and wave Y did atleast 0.5 of the wave W. Here is a summary

- We had 8 two double three patterns in the past since 2010
- Last wave which we are in at the moment went below the previous low in all 8 cycles
- Minimum it did 0.5 fibo of the previous leg down and maximum was 1.382
- So the chance is VERY high that we do the same if it did in all 8 cycles.
- If we take the minimum drop (0.5 of previous leg down) then it's going down to ~4900

Refer my last update that i did today. Thanks
Reply
siLve_R88 surangadesilva
@surangadesilva, Mid to long term, I see your point. Short term, however... good money could be made.
Reply
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