jacobcanfield

Bitcoin Facing Biggest Test All Year... (Mind blowing analysis)

Long
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is a deep analysis on Fibonacci retracements, Korea Volume , Futures closings, Tether, CNBC and why I believe that $7500 is the most critical point for Bitcoin all year and if we break it, we are moving into a strong bull market and if we fail to break it, we will head back down towards the $5800 levels and possibly lower.

There is a significant fractal appearing that I have found that shows Bitcoin either being rejected soon, or moving into a strong bullish market.

Let's dig into the Fibonacci fractal evidence first.
KEY:
RED = Swing Low
ORANGE = .618 From Previous Fib
GREEN = Current .618

FRACTAL 1:
Let's start with the all time high to the swing low:
Top: $19908
Bottom: $10711
.618 = $16395


The pullback retest hit the .618 Fib at $16,395 twice before falling further.

Fractal 2:
  • Top: $15664
  • Bottom: $6044
  • .618 = $11989.4
Going off of the .618 line and the swing low at $6044, we can see that the price pulled back to within the 1-2% of the .618 level.

FRACTAL 3:
  • Top: $11989
  • Bottom: $6439
  • .618 = $9869
Fractal 3, using the same level from the prevoius .618 to the swing low, we can see that price pulled back to exactly the .618 level at $9869

FRACTAL 4:
  • Top: $9869
  • Bottom: $5766
  • .618 = $8300
Fractal 3, using the same level from the prevoius .618 to the swing low, we can see that price pulled back to exactly the .618 level at $8300

NOTE: You can also use $10,000 for an exact .618 pull back.

FRACTAL 5:
  • Top: $8504
  • Bottom: $5857
  • .618 = $7493

If we then apply the same fractal we've been using and draw it from the top to the bottom ($8504 - $5857), then we can see a pull back to the .618 level at $7496 is highly likely.

This also coincides with a rising wedge and a rising bull channel .

This is also a confluence of the downtrend that has rejected Bitcoin all year at the .618 levels that I have just previously demonstrated.
(Pardon all the lines.)

So the real question is....
Did Bitcoin Bottom at $5778?
If you draw an impulse from where the bull market started back in July '17, we can see that Bitcoin has perfeclty hit the .786 pull back from the top.

This was also the EXACT point of the Bitcoin bull run that took us from $6,000 to $20,000.

Another factor to think about when considering whether bitcoin bottomed and we are moving into a new bullmarket is...
The Importance of Korea
South Korea is the home of the FOMO retail trader. They were buying Bitcoin at a premium in all of 2017.

They were hacked for $30 million and deposits/withdrawals were suspended until earlier in August.

A big deal that not many people are talking about is Korea's Bitthumb and the volume we are seeing since August 24th, 2018.

It is up over 30% and we are seeing Bitcoin sustain rallies when pull backs are often seen.

Drawing a fib retracement from the swing high to the swing low from Feb to the July bottom, we can see that the .618 and the .382 have both rejected BTCKRW along with a strong down trend.

This upcoming .236 retest at 8.2 million KRW is going to be very telling for Bitcoin and Korea's bullish sentiment for the rest of 2018.

What about the FUTURES CLOSINGS?
Another thing to watch for is the Futures Market Closings. I have graphed out the CME and the CBOE closing dates.

I am seeing a correlation of money flow .
CBOE closing usually correlates to a rise in the price of Bitcoin UNTIL a CME closing.
CME closings usually correlates to a fall in the price of Bitcoin .

You can see all of my correlations drawn out here.

UPCOMING EVENTS:
So, in 3 days on September 6th , 2018 we have the CME settlement date and on September 7th, 2018 we have the Bitwise ETF approval/denial date.

What about Longs Vs Shorts?
We've seen a strong correlation with short and long squeezes in 2017 and 2018 and we may be seeing the same thing happen again.

Longs were at an all time high for 2017 when we saw the price get crushed from $20,00. The same thing happened in February and March as well as in July.

We saw the inverse happen when shorts went to an all time high in April and they got squeezed out and Bitcoin printed a $1,000 price candle and went to $10,000.

Shorts are again stacked up to near April highs with longs continuing to decrease.

BIG BULLISH CROSSOVER FOR MACD
We are also seeing a bullish cross over on the MacD weekly for the first time in 2018.

TETHER AND MORE PRINTING:
We also can't forget about Tether.

Last, but not least... we can't forget about the CNBC Bitcoin indicator.
I posted a chart that has over 1,100 likes on trading view that predicted the start of the bull run and a rise to $8500.

They posted a high number of bearish tweets that coincided with the perfect swing low and we are seeing that play out right now.

CONCLUSION:
In my opinion, we are at the most critical juncture for Bitcoin all year.

With Korean volume coming back, the cross over on the MACD weekly and a possible short squeeze, I think we may finally see an end to the .618 pull back and it will break the down trend and print the first higher low all season.

We are also seeing a significant amount of Tether being sent to Bitfinex.

With the bullish move, we may see Bitcoin print one of the largest candles for 2018 and move to the $9000-$10000 levels.

I will be hedging both ways as we will be seeing a massive candle either way in my opinion.

Thanks for reading my analysis and may Satoshi bless all of your bags.
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Comments

I want to give credit where its due, by far one of the best analysis ive seen.
+5 Reply
Top analysis say bitcoin could up or down! :P
+5 Reply
jacobcanfield principaloverprinciple
@principaloverprinciple, Ahh, but I give my reasoning and also explained that I will be hedging.
+1 Reply
1.Your Fibo theory support downtrend is about to start.
2. Volume on Bithumb is error for sure. If you 1 hour chart, you can find it. And if you see second largest Korean exchange, upbit, you cannot see those volume profile.
3. About short volume.. As you wrote short was so high, then big downed already.. But a whale shorted 10K during only 4 hours. It should be interpreted differently.
4. CNBC already started bullish commebts.
5. CME closing means BTC will down according to your theory. And ETF will be dinied in high probability, everyone know..

Based on those factor you said, there is more possibility down, I don't know why you are bullish 70% than bearish 30%... Only MACD indicate bullish.
+5 Reply
isyopa isyopa
@isyopa, And I cannot see any relations between tether and BTC after subphoena on your chart. Btc falled even after tether printed twice after subphoena according to your chart.
+1 Reply
@isyopa, I have a bearish analysis too. I was initially more bearish, but I believe that there is a large entity that is holding the market up.
Reply
isyopa jacobcanfield
@jacobcanfield, yes, I also think there is absolutely a whale or entity who is making market higher and higher.. We have seen so many hidden buy walls from 6200 to here. But we cannot know their intention exactly.
But if they intended to make bull run again, they should accumulate behind the shadow, maintaining price, making sentiment bearish ti accumulate more..but they made linear bullish chart as if they dont want accumulate but only want price higher..
Let's see what happens..
+2 Reply
@isyopa, The question I keep asking is why are they not buying OTC. It's very easy and 90% of the time you get a better price than the market.
Reply
isyopa jacobcanfield
@jacobcanfield, agreed.
Case 1(bullish). They already finished acculation during past months(including cycle to 8500).
- unrealistic..
Case 2(bullish). They are accumulating and rasing simultaneosly
- It can be true if they really want 20K.. But it's really ineffective.
Case 3-1. They do not intend to buy.. Just make price higher in order to make big short on bitmex or bitfinex, or sell their last Btc.
Case 3-2. Or they make price higher in order to sell enormous amount of BTC in OTC market at high price.

I cannot think any other cases. This is why I think this rally is fake move but just manipulation.
+1 Reply
@isyopa, Why is case 1 unrealistic?
We constantly bounced at a fixed bottom this year.
The triangle is ending... They probably created that triangle.
Reply