MagicPoopCannon

SEC Postpones BTC ETF, Just As Price Surpasses Major Resistance!

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Today, we're going to take a look at some short term price movement on the chart, to assess where the market currently stands. So, without further ado, let's get right to it!

Looking at the daily BTC chart, we can see that BTC has quietly broken above a few important resistance levels. First off, price broke above the falling black trendline, which has acted as rock solid resistance since May 5th, 2018. So, that alone is a major change, where powerful resistance has been surpassed. Unfortunately, it was done on light volume . That can be explained by the fact that additional resistance remains just above that black trendline, and market participants aren't yet willing to jump in. We need to see some more of these resistance levels fall, if price is going to rally up toward the 5000 or 6000 level.

Looking again at the price movement after the breakout above the black trendline, we can see that the 150 MA (in light blue) has also been quietly surpassed. Furthermore, we can see that BTC was able to peek above the top of the pink triangle. However, it has now returned back below it, and the current candle is in the form of a doji star. So, there is clearly a bit of indecision here, as traders watch the market creep above important resistance levels.

Honestly, I'm not surprised that the black trendline was taken out. You can see in my previous analyses that I believed that this trendline would fall, and it did. Admittedly, I thought it would happen slightly lower than 4100, but it has happened nonetheless. This price movement is currently inline with my view that we are likely to continue to chop sideways, unless the 4200-4400 area is surpassed. There are a lot of people who believe that BTC is going much lower, but if it were, the market would have probably been rejected at that massive resistance level on the falling black trendline. Clearly, that didn't happen. So, the probability that Bitcoin will move sideways or higher, is now technically greater than the probability that we will see lower lows in the market. With that said, we can't forget that we are still below some powerful resistance levels. Until those levels are taken out (4200-4400) I believe that BTC will probably take a breather, as it starts to fall toward the 61.8% retrace on my chart. Obviously, if the 4200-4400 range is surpassed, that would quickly change things to a more bullish outlook, from the short-term neutral view that I currently have.

Major resistance has been surpassed, but additional resistance remains overhead. A failure to surpass that remaining overhead resistance, would greatly increase the likelihood that BTC will continue to chop sideways for quite some time.

Interestingly, the SEC has just delayed it's decision for the Bitcoin ETF , after a leaked interview revealed that the SEC Commissioner believed that regulators would approve the ETF proposal. So, I wouldn't be surprised, from a fundamental standpoint, to see the market cool off and grind sideways, until more bullish news emerges. The SEC proposal has been delayed until at least May 16th. So, I could see how that could cause investors to wait for a final decision, before pushing the market significantly higher. A Bitcoin ETF will bring significant amounts of liquidity into the BTC market, providing a new investment avenue for market participants, including institutional investors.

I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.

***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***

-JD-
Comment: Here is a zoomed out view of the chart...

Comments

this is a textbook triangle that will break downward. basically huge bear flag.
+20 Reply
ceesounds venturetrade
@venturetrade, textbook ascending triangle. time will tell you are wrong
+3 Reply
lamboluvr ceesounds
@ceesounds, I've been seeing this ascending triangle pattern for about a month now. For a couple of weeks now I'm expecting a dip but it never comes. I am expecting it to drop to $3600 to $3800 but it never happens, only rallies come after certain points. When drops do happen, the sell volume is very very low so it can't drop prices because the buyers come in, in droves. So I'm already not expecting a 61.8% retrace because I don't see any sell volume. Buyers win all the time. Don't think BTC will drop below 4k (Bitfinex chart)
+4 Reply
kardia lamboluvr
@lamboluvr, permabears are sorely disappointed.
Reply
ceesounds venturetrade
@venturetrade, wont go lower than 3550
+1 Reply
Smells like same bull trap re trend line fookery as the poke over at 8500 last year...I think 3550 at least is coming soon
+11 Reply
BradTrimas AJBullyBear
@AJBullyBear, I hope your right, I need to accumulate at 3500, 3000 levels.
Reply
Is this a time to buy? Of course it is :)
Will there be better prices? Very likely yes :)

You see, the dump will happen later than most expect.
People need to FOMO and buy in first, why dump now on this low volume...
+9 Reply
mbc47 mbc47
So, how do play it you say?
Well, buy some now, and more later. Simple really..
+1 Reply
kardia mbc47
@mbc47, I think a lot of bears are going to get caught off guard this time and end up buying in at much higher prices or be forced out of the market. Yes, there will be another dump, but what if something crazy happens like Bitcoin going on a two year bull run. It could happen. The next lowest price after that could be 20k. Wishful thinking? Perhaps. But I think it is fair to say anything can happen in this crazy market.
+4 Reply
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