Butcher_of_Bitmex
Short

Ascending Broadening Wedge

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
So I have pretty much given up on the hope of re-touching the purple long term down trend channel resistance (as a double top ); as we are teetering on the edge of a large bearish ascending broadening wedge . I think from where we currently stand on the daily we either:

- bounce of the support of the wedge and hit the green 50MA confirming it as resistance and breaking down through the wedge and head down
- break down through and bounce off the 100MA in orange; and then confirm the wedge support turned resistance and head down
- slim chance of finding support on the wedge and bouncing enough to get back above the 50MA and finding a double top before ultimately breaking back down through the wedge .

Regardless; we are going down when we break the wedge support. The target is 5100.

I am currently short long term (daily/weekly), and have more shorts laddered in up until the purple down trend channel resistance.
I also have some small hedged short term longs with a stop just below the orange 100MA to play off any bounce.
I will of course also play some hourly chart longs/shorts based on the Moving Averages and support/resistance areas; using relatively tight stops.


Ultimately, it is not long until we go down! Even if we stay within the wedge ; come mid-September we would reach the very apex where the purple long term down trend resistance meets the shorter term green ascending wedge support. It is likely (in my opinion) the purple resistance will win.
Comment: I think we break out of the tight descending orange wedge and confirm the green 50MA as resistance before we go down down down.
Comment: Have broken to downside and confirmed a small time frame retest of support as resistance. Have also fallen back below the centreline MA of BB. My short entry was 10,170 and stop has been moved into profit at 10,099.
Comment: Stop was obviously hit in profit, however I re-shorted at 10,250 which has been very profitable. I am thinking there is one last chance of a double top if the below yellow wedge plays out:
we might still get this.
Reply
Can we find support around 7000?
+1 Reply
Good one.
+1 Reply
I've been worried that we've played out an ascending wedge pattern but I haven't seen it as perfect. If we break the lower support I do agree it's confirmed.
+1 Reply
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