Bitcoin Super Bullish, but Momentum Slowing Down

This analysis is about the bigger picture of Bitcoin. Since the 11.700 high in March, where i shorted Bitcoin i had set my targets around 7.500, 6K and 4K levels. While the market got too bearish around the 6.500/7.000 and i started to notice a big accumulation phase around those levels, i said we needed to go higher again to make people bullish again. During the whole ride up i have had some confusing moments about what the price would do around the 8.000 and at the 9.000. I have used some fractals lately that worked out quite well for some time, but half way both of them failed to complete them. Still they offered some very nice trades. During those 6K levels, where i said 8K and maybe even 9K prices to shake all the bears out, had changed to around 10.500 because of a fractal i used. But since that one failed a week ago around the 9.400/9.500 levels, i was not sure what the market was planning to do. To keep the story short, since the break of 9300 two days ago i stayed flat to see what the market was planning to do on these time frames.

So i decided to leave the smaller trades and go back to my original plan, that is shorting Bitcoin around these levels. Because it was my plan in the 6K levels and since we eventually got here, i have to filter all the noise in the market, stay objective and trade my bigger plan. It's way to easy to fall for all the bullish emotions that the market is having at the moment. Just like how most people were big bears in the 6K levels a month ago and calling me crazy for thinking we should go up.

Now i have to admit, even though Bitcoin is slowing down a bit with it's rallies, the market is really strong and all we see is positive news on crypto's. But the thing is, i don't trust anything that is being published in this market. Everyone can do and say whatever they want, because they are no consequences for lying or cheating in this market. Most big people in crypto have been doing it and won't stop doing it if it keeps making them money without any risks. Next to all of this, i am just wondering why it's only good news we are seeing lately. There was bad news all over the place the last half year, and all of a sudden crypto seem to be the best thing ever. I just never trust anything that seems to good to be true, never have and never will. This in combination with my number 1 rule, there is no such thing as easy money!! So far these basic rules helped me to predict the big waves quite well the last half year, even though i could be wrong this time, i don't see a reason why i should change my plan.

Nobody is asking anymore about the Tether issue that has been a plague to this market for months. I am still wondering what has or what will happen to those 100K Bitcoins that were confiscated a few months ago in Thailand. Allot of shady business that is happening at some exchanges seems to belong to the past already? This is not about FUD guys, the only ones doing that is the source of bad news who (intentionally) spread it into this market. I am just stating some facts, not making them up myself. I don't have any influence on this market, nor does any other analyst here.

In my previous analysis i said i opened my first small short position at 9970 a few hours ago. I will add until 10.200 with a stop around 10.500/10.600. So far this is my plan, could be changing it but that depends on what kind of price action we will see the coming days. The reason why i went short, was because of certain price action i saw yesterday and today and i think i was seeing distribution. Fact that we are so close around the 10.000 is bugging me, because it would be strange if the 10.000 won't be broken since we are this close. In the chart you can see the targets i have are around 10.200 and 10.500. But if my overall theory is right, we will probably fall short of those targets. Just like we did with that big inverse H&S 3 months ago. The move up from the last 2 days also seems like a rising wedge.

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When we look at the volume picture, we can see that it is dropping while price is going higher. This doesn't mean it's a long term high, but does mean it's ready to make a correction. To be clear, this analysis is not about me saying we will break the 6K now, NO!!! I don't look that far ahead. I will only think about that if the 8.000 will break, not any sooner than that. the market is very strong still and very bullish and many signs are there that we do have a longer term low. I am not ignoring that. But anything could happen, we have seen that many times before. When/if bad news is entering the market again, than things could turn around very quickly again. There is a very solid support around the 8000, neckline of that big inverse H&S as well. And the 7000 (if we get there) won't be an easy one to break, that's for sure. Since volatility has dropped the past month, i think it could be because the market is maturing. More big players that have entered the market who react less emotionally during moves up and down. This could be a good sign for the market, but unfortunately not for day trading the Bitcoin.

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Here you can see the wedge i am talking about. The blue line shows what a similar wedge at the 11.700 high did, broke out downwards just to go higher again. Big chance we will see a similar thing happen

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This moment, actually that same fractal i used until a week ago

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Bulls are extending the retracement, trying to get back in again and invalidate the wedge

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Drop got extended at Bitstamp, now price could follow that blue line, bulls making another desperate attempt to break higher.

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The green support area seems to be break as well

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It's weakning now, could be dropping some today, there is a chance that we see a right shoulder, before dropping more

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The bounce is a bit stronger than i thought it would be. So could be buyers are stepping in again

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Bulls seem to have made a small inverse H&S, looks like we will make another attempt, like the charts in my first update

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Strange to see those differences between exchanged again. This has not happened for a long time now, only the last few days. So we made a drop earlier today, but some exchanges showed more weakness than others. Bitfinex is still pulling the others higher, as it is trying to do now. So far they managed to do so the whole week, so there is not anything else to say than BFX seems to be leading.

Most did drop through their first support level around 9550, so chances are very high it will drop even more. Could be seeing a small correction up first again

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www.newsbtc.com/2018...in-market-justifies/

This has been going on for a very long time now, can you blame me for not taking this market seriously? This is supposed to be the Gold standard in crypto and we only see people with a big stake in one of these two, shouting how theirs is the number one. Hoping it will make them even richer than they already are. They really don't care about anything else, only about their wealth. That's why i keep on saying, never trust anyone who has a stake in a coin

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So far, that price action i saw the last 2 days, was pretty accurate again. We have not been 100 points above that level and at the highs i saw the same yesterday. Can't say if they are the same people who are unloading now what they bought in the 6K's. I don't have that information of course. Could also be a whale who bought at 9000 and took profit at the highs. Or maybe someone building up a big short position, i can't really know that now.

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So far it's still very weak, no real bounce yet, but i think there is a big chance we see a similar move like at the 9000/9200 highs a month ago. This would suggest we could see a move up from here to make a lower high around 9800 before dropping again

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Looks like a bullish wedge here

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Should not drop much more, if it breaks this wedge downwards, there could be a very nasty drop coming. That chance is normally very small!

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Its taking to long it seems, could be dropping even more from here on out

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Could be a false breakout, but it has to go up within the next 10/20 min

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Trying to get in again, if bulls succeed, we could see an acceleration upwards towards the 9700/9800. COULD BE!!

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If price at BFX stays above the 9520 we should expect another small wave up soon

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Looks like a small break out with a small inverse H&S, but there is no volume! Needs volume to go higher.

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Should stay above this green area now

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Looks like the bulls have left the building, getting very close for another drop

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Looked like bulls already gave up, but now they have a good chance of making this inverse H&S. The wedge is also still valid as long as the low does not break

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Bulls should not wait to long, otherwise this whole move will get turned into a big bear flag

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Looked like the flag would break but price got pushed higher again. There are some similarities to a week ago, around the 8700 low. but volume is lower this time and the bounce is weaker as well. So chances are much bigger that this is a real bear flag this time. That bullish wedge has lost it's value and weight almost completely already. So even though i thought we would go up earlier today, the last couple of hours have changed my mind again

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I just love these kind of moves, volatility :)
We could find some support here

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No bounce yet, so could just keep on dropping

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I think the drop will cool down from here on out. Probably move sideways for a day before taking real direction again

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MIght have been to quick with my last comment. Price should get above 9400 to cool down. But looks like the market is still to weak to do so

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Maybe this attempt will work out :)

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Things are starting to look very bad, almost like 11.7 from 2 months ago again. I thought it would go up to at least 9400/9500. Looks like the Bulls have gone home again and looks like I was right about the distribution I saw at the highs the last few days. Things could still turn, around here or maybe even around 8700z that one should hold, because if that breaks we will probably see the 8200. There it will be more desicive. But like I mention many times, I don’t want to look to much ahead

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Posted a new update