In the grand scheme of things, this chart looks undeniably bullish. Since its inception, BTC has been on an upward channel that has not yet broken. The current price action is only an attempt to make it to the halfway part of the channel since the test of the downside. Nothing about this chart says bearish. But, that does not mean the pain of 30% dump isn't real. Unless BTC drops below 10k price level, the uptrend is intact and there will be higher highs some day; no questions. When we zoom out to monthly, it looks like a continuation. Indicators show strong momentum still on the upside. Accumulation is getting stronger. ADX tested 25 level back in November and swung back up. DI plus is shooting north and gaining space against DI minus. CME closed above 35 K this week. If spot price follows, that will make the case for new higher high very soon. How about a bearish scenario? It will start from the lower time frame. A 4 hour closure below 30k and daily closure below 31K will start the corrosion. Eventually, a weekly closure below 23k or Weekly 21 EMA will halt the current uptrend. If that comes to play, it will only mean a longer term reset to gain momentum to the upside again; maybe from 20k or 18k level. If the spot price closes between 31k and 35K this week, then the decision point moves to next week with a new range to establish and eventually break either to the upside or to the downside. My plan right now is to nibble the dips and put stop loss below the support level. If price breaks above 35K with daily and 2 day closures, I would plan for heavier positions with immediate targets towards 52k to 68k. If price breaks lower, I would wait for the new patterns to emerge. Shorting BTC is not my cup of tea. Risk management is the key to make the most off the opportunities in this market and there are plenty.
