BITCOIN - Elliott Wave and Wyckoff Perspectives 🤔
Elliott wave and Wyckoff support and resistance:
The "collapsing structure" break-down from the wedged top gives a clue that the trend may be coming to an end.
Price trickled down to the Wyckoff support region to have a soft bounce just shy of support, then a hard bounce after tagging support.
The 2 bounces appear to have formed an expanded ABC with the C wave extending to 1.618.
The 1.618 extension shown on the chart is also the area of BC resistance.
Price has passed BC and wicked 1.618 on the 4hr and this shows this wave is probably complete.
So what next?
Today's big bounce shows there is still strength in trend. Although there will likely be fake-outs along the way, good chance price will at least probe higher before this top is done.
Price is consolidating above BC resistance currently. If it holds here for any length of time is is bullish short term.
My guess???
My guess is as it was before. Price is attracted to SOW (yellow) from Bitcoin topping pattern like a Neodymium magnet. It simply must touch it now its come so close and this will form UTAD. Its essentially like a salmon desperately trying to get up the river, dodge the bears and hit its target., then fall back down the river, relax, take some time off, hang out with other salmon etc
If price does tag SOW this should provide excellent shorting possibilities for a competent trader in BTC ALTS and crypto related stocks.
Not Advice.
The "collapsing structure" break-down from the wedged top gives a clue that the trend may be coming to an end.
Price trickled down to the Wyckoff support region to have a soft bounce just shy of support, then a hard bounce after tagging support.
The 2 bounces appear to have formed an expanded ABC with the C wave extending to 1.618.
The 1.618 extension shown on the chart is also the area of BC resistance.
Price has passed BC and wicked 1.618 on the 4hr and this shows this wave is probably complete.
So what next?
Today's big bounce shows there is still strength in trend. Although there will likely be fake-outs along the way, good chance price will at least probe higher before this top is done.
Price is consolidating above BC resistance currently. If it holds here for any length of time is is bullish short term.
My guess???
My guess is as it was before. Price is attracted to SOW (yellow) from Bitcoin topping pattern like a Neodymium magnet. It simply must touch it now its come so close and this will form UTAD. Its essentially like a salmon desperately trying to get up the river, dodge the bears and hit its target., then fall back down the river, relax, take some time off, hang out with other salmon etc
If price does tag SOW this should provide excellent shorting possibilities for a competent trader in BTC ALTS and crypto related stocks.
Not Advice.
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Hi Guys - I'm Back!
I've been here all week but unfortunately unable to update my threads as I have been banned for a week for comments on a friend's thread.
And as my ban is lifted, BTC price is at a critical juncture.
On the BTC chart there are 2 areas with strong fibs and resistance landmarks. The first was SOW has passed. However - down the road on higher time frames we may get to see price wick through SOW.
Price is right here just shy of the second strong resistance point - 0.618 retracement from the top and SOW in D (last support). This area I would say is of higher resistance than previous SOW due to the 0.618 fib. History shows that BTC loves reversing around 0.618 and 1.618.
Notice that in the previous wave up, price has fallen just shy of 0.618 and SOW in D resistance. Just as I stated in my earlier idea, price is attracted to these areas, so the fact that price has come so close means it will probably touch. From a bearish perspective, this also means that if price does touch, there will very likely be a fake-out to the upside and it could be a large fake-out. In my own research I would suggest that it is duration that is more important to judge than price.
Now from the bullish perspective, this is really the time to wake from chart boredom because if price passes this area I think the next bull market is on. That said imo there is no rush. A bull market will last long enough to make good profit that there is no need to risk it all to get in a little sooner. I will be waiting to see real confirmation, probably at least with daily candles before I enter.
All that said I'm still bearish for now.
Best of luck. Don't let your emotions run away with you. Patience is hard but it normally wins.
I've been here all week but unfortunately unable to update my threads as I have been banned for a week for comments on a friend's thread.
And as my ban is lifted, BTC price is at a critical juncture.
On the BTC chart there are 2 areas with strong fibs and resistance landmarks. The first was SOW has passed. However - down the road on higher time frames we may get to see price wick through SOW.
Price is right here just shy of the second strong resistance point - 0.618 retracement from the top and SOW in D (last support). This area I would say is of higher resistance than previous SOW due to the 0.618 fib. History shows that BTC loves reversing around 0.618 and 1.618.
Notice that in the previous wave up, price has fallen just shy of 0.618 and SOW in D resistance. Just as I stated in my earlier idea, price is attracted to these areas, so the fact that price has come so close means it will probably touch. From a bearish perspective, this also means that if price does touch, there will very likely be a fake-out to the upside and it could be a large fake-out. In my own research I would suggest that it is duration that is more important to judge than price.
Now from the bullish perspective, this is really the time to wake from chart boredom because if price passes this area I think the next bull market is on. That said imo there is no rush. A bull market will last long enough to make good profit that there is no need to risk it all to get in a little sooner. I will be waiting to see real confirmation, probably at least with daily candles before I enter.
All that said I'm still bearish for now.
Best of luck. Don't let your emotions run away with you. Patience is hard but it normally wins.
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These are just my opinions - it is not advice.
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Also, for those of you that are charting and following my work - price appears to be completing a 1:0.618 motive 3 wave.
There are a few of you PM'ing me your charts, and sorry I have not been able to respond. But a shout out to a stand out chartist here - Tonpanzee who picked out the potential motive 3 wave. I would imagine he will be doing very well for himself down the road. Anyhow its very pleasant to see that some of you are also dedicated to this craft.
I'll be sharing my elliott wave count once we have some resolution here as it is not at all confirmed as yet.
There are a few of you PM'ing me your charts, and sorry I have not been able to respond. But a shout out to a stand out chartist here - Tonpanzee who picked out the potential motive 3 wave. I would imagine he will be doing very well for himself down the road. Anyhow its very pleasant to see that some of you are also dedicated to this craft.
I'll be sharing my elliott wave count once we have some resolution here as it is not at all confirmed as yet.
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I'm going to add this here as its relevant to BTC.
Notice how ETH surged initially but since then has hung around at 0.618 and resistance. This is a big tell on what is about to happen next I feel.
Notice how ETH surged initially but since then has hung around at 0.618 and resistance. This is a big tell on what is about to happen next I feel.
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0.618 and resistance tagged. Now its up to the crypto weekend gods.
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So far price has moved through a succession of 1:0.618 waves, so I wouldn't be surprised if this sequence completes with another top top around $48K.
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Daily candle topped at 48K in this confluence of 0.618 extensions and SOW in D resistance. Declining volume throughout this move. Lets see what the next daily candle brings.
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Price has just now tagged the last 0.618 fib in this sequence and rejected quickly. Good chance it tops around here.
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Price falling below SOW in D resistance. Good chance this is the change of trend right here.
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New thread and short call on my profile. Trade at your own risk.
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As price appears to be rejecting from SOW in D resistance, its interesting to note there has been a lot of activity along this long term trendline stretching all the way back to March 2020. Thats how long these algos keep track and much longer also I'd imagine. Isn't it interesting that after all this time, this trendline is still very much relevant. And now in what looks very likely to be the initial collpasing structure price has bounced off this trendline with its first downward impulse. It will probably re-test and break through soon enough.
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