Hello there, this is our view on BTCUSD, enjoy!
Bulls have had their time, but now while coronavirus keeps spreading all around the world I don't believe world market will recover further more. Bitcoin is a new part of this market and news may even influence its value. So we're questioning: what will BTC do now?
A regular recover after the big dump which has occurred on March 12th has took place in form of a small uptrend inside a rising wedge, which now is just about to terminate. The textbook result for this breakdown should be a 2130$ dump in a couple of days. And there are many signs on chart and oscillators which confirm this teory: price could never manage to breakout of the pink trendline, which comes from weekly chart and always acted like support-resistance line. Zooming out price could never close weekly candle above 6650 support level (0.382 fib), which is extremely bearish too. Volumes kept going down since the dump, so I assume this recover is completely natural and not whales based: without solid buyers coming in there's a risk of a further dump waiting silent to take place. Also moving average golden cross (50-200) was negated and it took price down of a 34%; a death cross is now pending since 10 days ago. On h4 time frame price could easily get up to moving average 200, but couldn't state a complete breakout since it couldn't manage to break it out on closure. And that's the same for exponential moving average. Ichimoku cloud still looks bearish on daily and is very tight on h4, so it is never supporting a leg down. Many oscillators, first of all fisher transform, are looking overbought and are now forming many bearish divergences with price both on h4 and daily. I observed chaikin, money flow, relativestrenghtindex, stochastic and ultimate and they all look the same except rsi. Stochastic in particular is just about to mark a death cross on h4. Awesome and moving average convergence-divergence played themselves on h4, forming bear divergences with price.
But don't panic sell now: I also found a little clues about further bullishness in the next future. In fact we dumped too hard and we now miss a retest on weighted moving average 200 base (around 7.7k). Also a big gap on cme futures let bulls believe it needs a wick up to fill it. Bollinger bands start to look very bullish on daily as price broke middle band and never went in oversold while there; they're now beginning to stretch suggesting next big move is preparing. Ichimoku cloud would turn bullish only if price could enter it on daily. Oscillators look great on daily base, a little overbought, where they're trying to breakout in an uptrend. Stochastic is just about to mark a golden cross. Both awesome and moving average convergence-divergence are growing, stating bullish momentum on daily.
I tend to believe that most traders are now greedy, don't know why, so I bet a bearish scenario is more probable and that's what I drew on chart: many people think that fiat are now losing their values and savers will put all of their money in Bitcoin and gold so they could preserve their purchasing power. In reality no one knows where this young asset is going: it's new and never existed during a world crisis. Bitcoin popularity, total number of traders and wallets are increasing, so this could make traders think that we're mostly going up, as there are more holders too. And that's what we're expecting for post-halving, but how will we get there? We hypothesized a strategy, based on our actual money management:
wait for price to breakdown the rising wedge and then short it to the death on retest.
Entry (short): 6650 - 7000
Target (short-term): 5850 - 5550 - 4430
Stoploss: 7407
Risk/reward: upto 3.04
Personally I suggest you should trade upto 10% of your total capital with low leverage (2x-10x).
Trade safe and stay at home. Anlvis
Bulls have had their time, but now while coronavirus keeps spreading all around the world I don't believe world market will recover further more. Bitcoin is a new part of this market and news may even influence its value. So we're questioning: what will BTC do now?
A regular recover after the big dump which has occurred on March 12th has took place in form of a small uptrend inside a rising wedge, which now is just about to terminate. The textbook result for this breakdown should be a 2130$ dump in a couple of days. And there are many signs on chart and oscillators which confirm this teory: price could never manage to breakout of the pink trendline, which comes from weekly chart and always acted like support-resistance line. Zooming out price could never close weekly candle above 6650 support level (0.382 fib), which is extremely bearish too. Volumes kept going down since the dump, so I assume this recover is completely natural and not whales based: without solid buyers coming in there's a risk of a further dump waiting silent to take place. Also moving average golden cross (50-200) was negated and it took price down of a 34%; a death cross is now pending since 10 days ago. On h4 time frame price could easily get up to moving average 200, but couldn't state a complete breakout since it couldn't manage to break it out on closure. And that's the same for exponential moving average. Ichimoku cloud still looks bearish on daily and is very tight on h4, so it is never supporting a leg down. Many oscillators, first of all fisher transform, are looking overbought and are now forming many bearish divergences with price both on h4 and daily. I observed chaikin, money flow, relativestrenghtindex, stochastic and ultimate and they all look the same except rsi. Stochastic in particular is just about to mark a death cross on h4. Awesome and moving average convergence-divergence played themselves on h4, forming bear divergences with price.
But don't panic sell now: I also found a little clues about further bullishness in the next future. In fact we dumped too hard and we now miss a retest on weighted moving average 200 base (around 7.7k). Also a big gap on cme futures let bulls believe it needs a wick up to fill it. Bollinger bands start to look very bullish on daily as price broke middle band and never went in oversold while there; they're now beginning to stretch suggesting next big move is preparing. Ichimoku cloud would turn bullish only if price could enter it on daily. Oscillators look great on daily base, a little overbought, where they're trying to breakout in an uptrend. Stochastic is just about to mark a golden cross. Both awesome and moving average convergence-divergence are growing, stating bullish momentum on daily.
I tend to believe that most traders are now greedy, don't know why, so I bet a bearish scenario is more probable and that's what I drew on chart: many people think that fiat are now losing their values and savers will put all of their money in Bitcoin and gold so they could preserve their purchasing power. In reality no one knows where this young asset is going: it's new and never existed during a world crisis. Bitcoin popularity, total number of traders and wallets are increasing, so this could make traders think that we're mostly going up, as there are more holders too. And that's what we're expecting for post-halving, but how will we get there? We hypothesized a strategy, based on our actual money management:
wait for price to breakdown the rising wedge and then short it to the death on retest.
Entry (short): 6650 - 7000
Target (short-term): 5850 - 5550 - 4430
Stoploss: 7407
Risk/reward: upto 3.04
Personally I suggest you should trade upto 10% of your total capital with low leverage (2x-10x).
Trade safe and stay at home. Anlvis
Trade active:
Short.