GunMoney

Big test for Bitcoin

GunMoney Updated   
GEMINI:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Lot's going on in the markets, Bitcoin is no different.

We just got rejected off the 50D MA and the resistance line established back in early/mid February and are attempting to maintain upward momentum. I exited my Stellar position a few nights ago and bought back in cheaper this morning on the dip. Still holding my ETC, and BTC. Considered exiting ETC last night but chose not to because Bitcoin had formed a potential bull flag on the 6H and I didn't want to miss a rally.

The books look bullish to me (barely), as do the 1 day RSI and MACD, two similar but yet still different indicators. Potential Elliot Wave formation as long as the 1D candle closes above $6800. I'm looking for a 5th wave surge now which, if it happens, will probably get rejected off the 200D MA, but may also break-through with enough force and send us toward $9,500. Which is where the large resistance trend-line is that goes back to the peaks in 2017.

The halving is in a month. The Central Banks keep pumping trillions into the economy, and we're on the verge of a global depression. I think these are all bullish factors for Bitcoin however some would argue that a major depression could see the crypto markets tank along with most everything else; except bonds, gold, and silver, all of which I'm heavily invested in as well. I believe Bitcoin would be in that "safe haven" category but many others do not.

The massive tether injection 2 weeks ago is a bullish signal as well. Yet some are saying it was just a bookkeeping adjustment to account for TRON being added to the tether market cap. But the numbers don't add up and I've seen no proof of it anywhere (send if you have any please).

I'm bullish for sure. But not so naive to think that we may not break down. We will have some Q1 financials come out this week as well as some macro data which will probably send the stock markets into a tail-spin. Some think Bitcoin will follow, I do not. Time will tell.

Trade smart. I'm long but willing to cut losses and be wrong if it looks like we are breaking down. But I have no stops set currently.

Good luck!

Trade active:
FYI still holding. All-in. BTC, XLM, ETC. No stops set.
Trade active:
Exited my XLM position, about 30% of portfolio. 50D MA creating resistance again. Down looking likely more than up now.
Trade closed manually:
I exited my Bitcoin and ETC positions yesterday afternoon at $6850 & $5.25, respectively. After the 3rd rejection off the 50D MA and the failure to break through the trendline resistance as well as the clear break of the trendline support that was set when we bounced off $3800 I'm turning bearish for now. Looking for a bounce off 200W MA to enter, which is right around $5800 for Bitcoin.
Comment:
Despite yesterday's surge above the 50D MA I'm still bearish. I believe this is a bull trap/suckers rally and we will be heading down hard soon. I'm eyeing somewhere between $5800-$6200 for a good bounce trade with final floor around $5000 before we hit long-term linear trendline support and start another rally, up to around $8K. We're coming to the end of this massive 3 year long pennant the end of this year.

Side note: I knew we had good support at $6500 and didn't make a play, next time I will when I see support that strong at a specific zone.
Comment:
Got back in at $6850, out at $7,100, then back in at $7,460. Still long but expecting a dip soon.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.